Interesting analysis. But not sure agree with the conclusion. Why wouldn’t the trends/forces that are in play around the country putting other normally blue states into play not also be relevant in PA?
For example granted every state is a little different from another but Ohio and PA mirror each other pretty closely the last few elections. PA is approxmately 2 to 3.5% more democrat than Ohio going back to 2000. If Trump is up average of +2% (and some consider that conservative) in Ohio that means Trump very well is too close to call or maybe a bit up in PA.
Also the Axiom Strategies battleground poll shows Trump up by 15% in a county won by Obama in 2012 by 5%. If that trend holds throughout the state that SHOULD (I emphasize should) overcome Philly proper and its’ fraud (if it’s small).