Free Republic

By the time the recession is in full force, Democrats will probably be running the government. Barack Obama will probably be in the White House. Democrats will have a comfortable majority in the House and will control between 56 and 60 seats in the Senate. The party will inherit big deficits. David Leonhardt, my colleague at The Times, estimates that the deficit will sit at around $750 billion next year, or five percent of G.D.P. Democrats had promised to pay for new spending with compensatory cuts, but the economic crisis will dissolve pay-as-you-go vows. New federal spending will come in...

With credit markets in New York in crisis last week, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger sent an extraordinary letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asking for $7 billion. Although the governor has since withdrawn that request, it testifies to the dire state of his budget. Yet days before penning his note, the governor told an audience at the Commonwealth Club of California not to worry about the state's budget crunch and to approve $9.95 billion in new debt on the November ballot to build a bullet train to connect Los Angeles to San Francisco: "Just because we have a problem with...

A growing number of California voters believe the chronic state budget deficit is a serious problem and lack faith in the ability of the state's political leadership to do anything about it, according to a new Field Poll. The poll also found voter approval of the job that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature are doing continues to decline. Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said voters are becoming increasingly frustrated by the Legislature's inability to pass the budget on time or close the $15 billion deficit. “The public has growing concerns about the budget and less confidence that the Legislature...

California Proposes Sales Tax Hike To Fund Transport, Government Services July 18, 2008 11:32 a.m. ESTVittorio Hernandez - AHN News WriterSacramento, CA (AHN) - To close California's $17.2 billion budget deficit, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger considered on Thursday hiking the state sales tax and using funds intended for transportation and government services.State legislators proposed the two measures, which the governor initially described as bad ideas, but he did not rule out adopting the measures to avoid a cash crisis in California.The lawmakers plan to close the budget gap by collecting $5.6 billion income tax increase on the rich and borrowing $1.1...

Time’s up for Chicken Little: Budget shortfall presents opportunity for new leaders to emerge Thomas C. Patterson, Goldwater Institute Daily Email January 29, 2008 The state budget deficit is an opportunity in disguise. The pressure of a multibillion dollar shortfall might enable reforms we wouldn’t have the courage for otherwise. Governor Janet Napolitano, although often cited for her skill in avoiding tax hikes, recently unveiled a couple of particularly bad ideas for “revenue enhancement.” First, she wants to expand photo radar on state highways to generate $90 million of deficit reduction. The governor also recommended ratcheting up the marketing of...

Budget Blues: Budget deficit opportunity for creativity, not inaction By Darcy Olsen After five straight years of being flush with cash, Arizona faces a staggering deficit of about $1 billion. What went wrong? Some analysts point to declining revenue. Revenue growth dropped from 7 percent last year to 1.6 percent this year. But declining revenue is only a piece of the puzzle. Most state economies have been slowing, but Arizona is one of the only states in the red. Extreme spending bears most of the guilt. In just five years, Arizona state government has grown 32 percent, even after adjusting...

Calling Suze Orman, State of the State speech put government first. By Starlee Rhoades What can Arizona lawmakers learn from guru of personal finance Suze Orman? Plenty. Orman's mantra is "people first, then money, then things," which is pretty much the opposite of what we heard on Monday in the Governor's annual State of the State address. Governor Janet Napolitano proposed 12 new government programs and initiatives for the state, in addition to the expansion of several existing programs. These proposed new and expanded programs are offered at a time when Arizona faces a $1.25 billion structural deficit. The new...

I didn't watch the GOP debate today, but I did listen to it. I agree with Dean Barnett - the big loser was Carolyn Washburn, the moderator. Her hectoring attitude, control issues and really stupid questions made this debate the worst of the primary season. Iowa was not well-served by her performance. The winner? Overall, I would say Fred Thompson, because his performance has the potential to invigorate his campaign. His refusal to play the moderator's games was the highlight, but more impressive was his willingness to tell the truth about entitlement reform and the sad state of the budget....

But work on Schwarzenegger's agenda may be overshadowed next year by his failure to resolve the issue that helped bring him into office four years ago in a historic recall election – a chronic budget deficit. The governor entered office facing a $15 billion shortfall in a general fund that spent $79 billion. Avoiding deep spending cuts, Schwarzenegger used a voter-approved, $15 billion bond to plug a hole in a budget he inherited from former Gov. Gray Davis. Increases in tax revenue from a growing economy helped fuel spending since then. Schwarzenegger now faces an estimated shortfall of at least...

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger told social service advocates Tuesday that the state's anticipated budget shortfall -- already feared to be the worst since he took office -- has widened to $14 billion, according to people at the meetings. That new figure indicates that the state's fiscal fortunes are declining even more rapidly than many leaders had expected. Less than a month ago, the Legislature's chief budget analyst calculated that California is on track to come up $10 billion short by June 2009, when the state ends its next fiscal year. A $14-billion budget gap would translate to more than 12% of...

When 2008 rolls around, investors who anticipated a capital gains tax exemption on the sale of their investment real estate may run across a kink in their plans. HR 3648, a bill working its way through Congress, would alter the requirements for exemption on primary residences so that many investment properties will no longer qualify, leaving investors to pay a capital gains tax from which they would previously have been exempt.

If someone had told Arnold Schwarzenegger on the day he became governor that the state's revenues would grow by more than $25 billion in his first four years in office, he probably would have laughed at them. If they had then informed him that, despite this 37 percent growth in revenues, he still wouldn't be able to balance the budget, he might have cried. It's been a long, frustrating road for Schwarzenegger since, as a novice candidate straight out of Hollywood, he implied that balancing the budget would be a snap. Just audit the books, teach the "spending addicts" in...

Despite the ongoing costs of US military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, the outlook for the federal budget has grown substantially brighter. Tax revenues are rising much faster than spending, according to Treasury Department numbers released last week. The recent trend is strong enough that, were it to continue, the budget could move into surplus in barely a year, one economist calculates. Already, the federal deficit is shrinking toward about half the size that it has averaged since 1970, when analyzed as a percentage of gross domestic product. The shift reflects a strong economy, with higher incomes and corporate profits...

PROMOTING GOLDMAN ON GOVT TAB by Jim Willie CB December 13, 2006 US Treasury Secy Hank Paulson and USFed Chairman have embarked upon yet another trip to China, joined even by Commerce Secy Gutierrez. This Strategic Economic Dialog between the Untied States and China deserves comment. The official reasons stated are to discuss economic and banking reforms, more like a begging session for China not to torpedo the USEconomy. In my opinion, that is in part a cover smokescreen. Paulson publicly cites the need for China to make quick progress on economic changes toward an open market society, like with...

Oil producers shun dollar By Haig Simonian in Zurich and Javier Blas and Carola Hoyos in London Published: December 10 2006 Oil producing countries have reduced their exposure to the dollar to the lowest level in two years and shifted oil income into euros, yen and sterling, according to new data from the Bank for International Settlements. The revelation in the latest BIS quarterly review, published on Monday, confirms market speculation about a move out of dollars and could put new pressure on the ailing US currency. Market liquidity is traditionally low in December, and many traders have locked in...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A slowing economy will cut U.S. tax revenue growth from its surprisingly robust pace of the past year, but the federal budget deficit could still shrink a bit further in fiscal 2007, some economists say. Much depends on how quickly and deeply the economy brakes in coming months, and how this affects corporate earnings -- a big driver behind the 22.3 percent reduction in the deficit to $247.7 billion in fiscal 2006, a figure announced by the Bush administration last week. "As long as we don't find new things to spend money on and we have moderately...

WASHINGTON -- The persistence of big budget deficits raises risks to the country's long-term economic health and they need to be curbed, says Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. "The prospective increase in the budget deficit will place at risk future living standards of our country," Bernanke said. "As a result, I think it would be very desirable to take concrete steps to lower the prospective path of the deficit." Bernanke's comments on the budget deficit were contained in a written response to questions raised by Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., after the Fed's chief appearance at a congressional hearing on the...

In the last five years, the federal budget has done a good impression of major league sluggers, bulking up to such frightful proportions as to be almost unrecognizable. Baseball responded to the excess girth by cracking down on steroids. President Bush, however, wants to try stomach stapling. This week, he urged Congress to give him a line-item veto so he can "reduce wasteful spending."In reality, he's about as likely to cut spending as he is to give the next State of the Union address in Aramaic. Since he took office in 2001, federal outlays have increased by $845 billion a...

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use. There was bad news for the White House and the Republican Party in the Associated Press-Ipsos poll on public attitudes conducted Feb. 6-8. By a 61-35 percent margin, respondents said that the country was on the "wrong track," and by 57-40 percent disapproved of the way President George W. Bush is running the country. Those surveyed also disapproved by a margin of 61-35 of how the Republican-controlled Congress was handling its duties, with a plurality of 47 percent saying things would be better if the Democrats were in charge. With Congressional...

President George W. Bush's new budget proposes spending $5.9 billion to promote math in America. This might not be a bad idea, if only because politicians seemingly cannot count. This year, the president wants to spend $2.77 trillion, including record amounts of money for both domestic programs and national defense/homeland security. The details are even less encouraging. His new budget will add $18 billion for hurricane relief on top of the billions already blanketing the regions affected by Hurricane Katrina, as well as comical proposals such as $148 million for the Solar America Initiative and $55 million for activities during...

Budget BraveryOF ALL THE enormous budgetary problems facing the country, the most daunting is the impending explosion in the growth of Medicare, the health care program for the elderly. So President Bush deserves credit for at least proposing to take modest steps to restrain Medicare's growth in the fiscal 2007 budget released yesterday. As part of a proposed $65 billion in cuts in entitlement programs over the next five years, Mr. Bush wants to cut $36 billion in projected Medicare spending, mostly by expanding a requirement for better-off seniors to pay higher premiums and by reining in the growth of...

SACRAMENTO – Most California lawmakers Monday will get a 12 percent pay raise that will bump their annual salaries to $110,880 and assure their place as the best paid state legislators in the country. Of the Legislature's 120 members, 14 have turned down the raise, citing the state's lingering budget problems. "I didn't feel right accepting the raise at a time when there was a state budget deficit," Assemblywoman Judy Chu, D-Monterey Park said yesterday. "I felt I needed to set an example for fiscal prudence." Assembly members Shirley Horton, R-Bonita, George Plescia, R-La Jolla, and Juan Vargas, D-San Diego,...

ROME - Public transportation ground to a halt, public offices shut down and thousands rallied across Italy on Friday as part of a general strike against the government's 2006 budget. The strike is the second such protest against a budget proposed by Premier Silvio Berlusconi's center-right coalition, which has been struggling to contain a deficit amid sluggish economic growth. Berlusconi's government faces general elections next year. The strike shut down post offices, banks and public offices for all or part of the day, and school employees were scheduled to walk out for an hour. Hospitals were guaranteeing only emergency services,...

As Congress struggles to complete work on the 2006 budget, the White House tells the Pentagon to cut between $13 billion and $15 billion from the 2007 defense budget and billions more in coming years. The military is in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, has what Robert Kaplan calls "imperial grunts" in scores of countries fighting terrorism and protecting American interests and must prepare against increasingly dangerous and assertive rogue states, unstable alliances and rising or resurgent powers. The Bush administration proposing defense cuts raises serious questions about both its fiscal policy and military strategy. The administration wants to reduce...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The October budget deficit was a smaller-than-expected $47.2 billion, down from $57.3 billion in October 2004, due to strong receipts, a Treasury Department report showed Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a $55 billion budget gap. The Congressional Budget Office last week estimated the deficit at about $50 billion. October receipts were $149 billion, the highest since $157 billion in October 2001, the Treasury Department said in its monthly statement. Outlays were $197 billion, the highest since $205 billion in the same month in 2003. The budget deficit for all of fiscal 2005 came in at...

The war on the other side of the world isn't going so well, and opposition at home is starting to grow. But the administration says we have to stay the course.Meanwhile, shocking images of loss and destruction in a major American city, including a breakdown of law and order with ugly racial overtones, have been broadcast around the world.The President, conscious that his image as a can-do Texan is eroding, decides on dramatic steps.Taking to the airwaves, he announces a massive federal response. Washington will provide as much money as needed to rebuild the affected urban areas.Funds will pour in...

In late 2003, a Forbes review of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's book "In an Uncertain World" noted: "Rubin is quite certain that eventually the huge deficit will push up interest rates on 10-year Treasuries from the current 4.5 percent to 7.3 percent. Jot down his arithmetic rule for future use: For every rise in the deficit equal to 1 percent of gross domestic product, figure that long-term interest rates will rise by 0.4 percent." Mr. Rubin was quite certain and quite certainly wrong. The budget surplus in fiscal 2000 was 2.4 percent of GDP. The deficit in 2005 was...

So the deficit—the federal budget deficit—is declining sharply, more sharply than just about anyone in mainstream media anticipated. According to figures from the Office of Management and Budget, the deficit is projected to decline from $412 billion in 2004 to $333 billion in 2005, a 19 percent decline. OMB further projects, obviously with less certitude, that it will decline to $162 billion in 2008.If so, that will mean that George W. Bush will have more than kept his promise to cut the deficit in half in his second term. Back in February, OMB projected a 2005 deficit of $427 billion."The...

U.S. Budget Deficit Tumbles, Congressional Analysts Say By Andrew Taylor Associated Press Writer Published: Jul 7, 2005 WASHINGTON (AP) - Higher-than-expected tax receipts and the steadily growing economy have combined to produce an improved picture for the federal budget deficit, congressional analysts say. The deficit for the current budget year, which runs through Sept. 30, should be "significantly less than $350 billion, perhaps below $325 billion," according to the Congressional Budget Office. The agency produces nonpartisan estimates for Congress and will put out a full update Aug. 15. Thursday's new figures come as the White House is to release its...

IT IS one of the big, untold stories of the global economy. America's public finances are improving at last, to the great relief of the White House but to the puzzlement of much of the commentariat, which cannot fathom how tax cuts can possibly go hand in hand with a smaller budget deficit. The US budget shortfall fell to $35.3bn (£19.4bn) in May, down 43.5% on the $62.5bn seen during the same month last year, thanks to a continuing surge in tax revenues. This year's deficit was the smallest May shortfall since the $27.9bn seen in May 2001, which was...

Thursday, June 16, 2005 Establishment Beginning to Pay Attention Author: Jim Sinclair Since May the establishment has quietly begun to listen and will continue to do so. What I told you would transpire has in fact happened. You know this by the courage of Mr. Peter G. Peterson, a man of such stature that when speaking on financial TV he cannot be interrupted by producers who don't like his script. That is not to say that the drop dead, beautiful, central-casting interviewer did not try to place words in this gentleman's mouth. That strategy fell flat on its face. Mr....

President Bush traveled to Pennsylvania State University to give a speech about Social Security reform in University Park, PA, and to speechify the Pennsylvania Future Farmers of America Convention, also at PSU. Making a day of it, in Bryn Mawr he stumped for Senator Rick Santorum, whose term expires next year. The Grove Family Dairy Farm in Shippensburg, PA, Chosen To Host Bush Visit. The president will attend the National Republican Senatorial Committee dinner in DC tonight. The Senate voted 73-24 to approve Thomas Griffith to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Secretary of State...

California officials conceded Monday that a legal challenge has severely hampered the ability of the state's stem cell agency to borrow even a penny of the $3 billion in research money it had hoped to raise over the next 10 years. Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Treasurer Phil Angelides said their offices are aggressively fighting the lawsuit while pursuing alternative ways for the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine to borrow money to fund medical research. "But we have a hard road to go here," Angelides said in Sacramento during a teleconference with reporters. Angelides is a member of a special...

.........../snip CHAN: The Chinese stock market hit its lowest ever point in six years and experts predict it will continue its downfall as time passes. Angry investors have blamed the government for the market decline in light of its failure in overseeing fraudulent financial reports by public companies. In the mean time, the housing market also reported sliding, sending the already debt laden Chinese financial system into a state of near crisis. STORY: According to reports, the primary cause for the plunge in this week¡¦s stock market was the issuance of an additional 2 billion shares of the Shanghai Boashan...

House Republicans at the start of the new legislative session could have set a new, fiscally sound direction by endorsing a series of procedural rules aimed at curtailing federal spending. Instead the House Republican Conference rejected virtually every commonsense measure that would fetter runaway spending, thereby opening the door to more federal excess. This, after the GOP last year vowed to control spending and restore budget sanity on Capitol Hill. With no circuit breakers in place, discretionary spending will spike, just as it has over the last three fiscal years, which account for some of the biggest annual spending increases...

Arnold's second State Of The State Address to the California State Legislature.

Deficit declines $100 billion Jack Kemp (archive) October 18, 2004 | Print | Send The media and all too many political elites, it seems, never learn. For at least 20 of the past 25 years, there has been constant hand-wringing over the federal budget deficit. Well, they're at it again. Headlines around the world last week decried the $413 billion fiscal 2004 deficit as a historic record. The International Monetary Fund, once again interfering in U.S. economic policy, has called on the United States to raise taxes. All of this is exacerbated by political demagoguery of the Kerry campaign saying...

...During the debate, Sen. Kerry... said that he would adopt a "pay-as-you-go" approach to ensuring financial solvency to Social Security. President Bush's response, though apt, needs amplification. ...[P]ay-as-you-go is effective when... we are concerned with surging discretionary spending.... defense, roads and highways, judicial services, and homeland security.... Under pay-as-you-go rules discretionary spending can be increased only if Congress is willing to finance it 100% out of other spending cuts and tax increases. The political undesirability of both financing methods serves to check both higher deficits and growth in the size of the government. On the other hand, the pay-as-you-go approach...

THE WHITE HOUSE, the Treasury Department, congressional Republicans, President Bush's reelection campaign--in unison, they rushed forward last week to tout the new job growth numbers. What's most striking is the economy is now on pace to create 2.8 million jobs in 2004, more than offsetting job losses suffered earlier in the Bush administration. And there's more good news on an issue related to the economy--the deficit. Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, citing the deficit, has accused Bush of fiscal irresponsibility. Now the deficit is shrinking so quickly that the president, if reelected, should be able to claim he's near to...

Dolan cuts 23 archdiocesan jobs to stem $1 million budget deficit By TOM HEINENtheinen@journalsentinel.com Posted: May 19, 2004 Facing a $1 million deficit in the current budget, Milwaukee Archbishop Timothy M. Dolan has eliminated 23 jobs in his central administration offices for the fiscal year that begins July 1. The cuts are being made as part of a yearlong planning effort to refine the Roman Catholic archdiocese's mission and reorganize its offices, but Dolan indicated this week that economic pressures and the sexual abuse crisis were driving the cuts. In his weekly e-mail to archdiocesan, parish and school leaders, he...

A moderate friend – aka "swing voter" – recently sent me a letter, in which he raised his objections about President Bush. Moderate Friend: Bush has made no major move to address environmental issues at all. The No. 1 thing a president could do environmentally is lead the charge to get us off fossil fuels. Larry Elder: You must remember to compare benefits vs. costs. For the foreseeable future, the only affordable alternatives are coal, natural gas, oil or nuclear. Renewable sources – solar, wind, etc. – so favored by the left remain prohibitively expensive. A nation becomes weaker, not...

Facing an extremely popular Republican governor who has vowed repeatedly not to raise taxes, Democrats this week will roll out a strategy designed to make him change his mind. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger comes off last week's election with a strong mandate, making the Democrats' task even harder, and some argue that they are wasting their time. But with the bond issue out of the way, both sides must focus on the $14-billion budget hole that remains and the cuts that the governor has proposed to close it. Democrats recognize that tactics of the past — simply advocating tax increases to...

<p>Everything bad about everything Washington is coming home to roost with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's recommendation that Social Security and Medicare benefits be cut for future retirees.</p> <p>It's elementary for Mr. Greenspan: Mix one part soaring budget deficits fueled with another part out-of-control entitlement programs, throw in a few million of-age baby boomers, and, wop-bop-a-loom-a-boom-bam-boom, the economy takes an express elevator straight into the sewey-hole.</p>

Nearly $1.5 billion lands in Hidalgo and Cameron counties every year for health care, but that hasn’t been enough to fill severe shortages of nearly every type of specialty doctor, according to a recent report. The report, prepared by the Community Health Development Program with the Texas A&M School of Rural Public Health, marks the first time that budgets of health providers have been compiled to give an idea of just how much money floating around the Rio Grande Valley is available for health care, some experts said. The $1.5 billion includes 2002 operating budgets for eight hospitals and all...

<p>President Bush, saying the economic recovery is firmly in place, yesterday proposed adding $1 trillion to the national debt to fund the cost of shifting to a partially privatized Social Security system.</p> <p>The massive increase in debt, coming on top of a $7 trillion national debt that is growing by about $500 billion a year, adds controversy to what was already promising to be a difficult reform to get enacted.</p>

<p>Congressional Republicans, in an extraordinary break with the White House in an election year, say President Bush's 2005 budget proposal "doesn't go far enough" to restrain government spending and are considering pursuing further cuts in outlays.</p> <p>Rep. Jim Nussle of Iowa, chairman of the House Budget Committee, yesterday said Republicans and the White House should even be willing to trim wasteful spending in the Defense and Homeland Security departments.</p>

Bush to Back Off Some Initiatives for Budget PlanBy ROBERT PEAR and EDMUND L. ANDREWS ASHINGTON, Jan. 31 — President Bush will propose a $2.3 trillion budget on Monday that backs away from some of the major spending and tax initiatives he supported in prior years, administration officials say.Constrained by big budget deficits and political realities, the officials said they would retreat on some of their own ideas and oppose others favored by Republicans in Congress.Mr. Bush will try instead to lock in some of his prior victories, by pressing Congress for a permanent extension of most of the tax...

WASHINGTON (AFP) - President George W. Bush (news - web sites) said he would place a legal block on overspending by the US Congress as he hit back at critics who have accused him of being reckless with US finances. AFP/POOL/File Photo   "To assure that Congress observes spending discipline, now and in the future, I propose making spending limits the law," Bush declared Saturday in his weekly radio address, ahead of the release Monday of the fiscal 2005 budget, in which the deficit is expected to hit a new record high. "This simple step would mean that every...

US budget agency: Govt debt cap to be hit July-Sept Monday January 26, 4:23 pm ET WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The Bush administration may have to seek a third boost in the federal debt ceiling in the third quarter of this year, according to a Congressional Budget Office report out on Monday. "CBO estimates that under current policies, that limit will be reached this year sometime between July and September," the CBO said in its updated twice-a-year budget projections. The budget estimates from the Congressional budget watchdog agency were slightly less pessimistic than its previous ones released in August,...

David M. Walker, comptroller general and head of the General Accounting Office, is worried about how the big numbers will add up in the 21st century -- what he calls "the growing fiscal imbalance." By Walker's calculations, every man, woman and child in the United States would have to pony up at least $24,000 to wipe the red ink off the government's financial ledger. Because of the way the government defines its liabilities, the balance sheet does not include Social Security and Medicare trust funds and other benefit programs, such as veterans health care. Add all those in, Walker figures,...