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It may come as a surprise to some but the head US trader of the same bank that spawns mARKKo Kolanovic’s weekly bullishness, is also one of the most bearish market commentators. Below is the trading desk commentary for JPM’s Elan Luger, head of US trading. The most positive thing I can say about this market is that what had been heavily debated in Q1 is now the overwhelming consensus. Everyone is a bear. China is shutdown, inflation is running wild, Russia / Ukraine continues to impact supply chains, animal spirits are dead, the fed has lost control, QT is...

The trend is your friend. How many times have you heard that saying? HOW MANY? It’s a deeper philosophical question. You get to believe only one of the following, not both: 1) The market trends 2) The market is mean reverting So which is it? The answer might surprise you It is both, but it depends on the time frame. This is the sort of thing the scientists and eggheads at places like Renaissance Technologies have studied to no end. They would write academic papers on it, except that trading on this knowledge is a lot more profitable than writing...

It’s not unusual to wipe out when riding your bike on a mountain trial, but when a bear causes you to crash, that’s a different story. According to Davis Souza’s post on Instagram, he was biking near Lake Tahoe in the Sierra Nevada mountain range June 14 when he crossed the bath of what looks like a black bear.

<p>UPDATE: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting on monetary policy are out.</p> <p>The main headline: many on the Committee said more progress is needed before tapering back any bond purchases under the Fed's quantitative easing program.</p>

At last weekend's Zillow Housing Forum, bearish real estate advisor Mark Hanson suggests that recent positive housing data is only a small fleeting bump driven by government stimulus. Hanson argued there is a substantial "shadow inventory" that will come on the market. He mentioned 6 million mortgages are delinquent and that millions of modifications will default as the "new subprime". 23% of Obama's HAMP modifications have already defaulted. Hanson talked about the high "Back-End Debt-to-Income Ratio" even after modification, were borrowers have substantial debt payments in addition to their mortgage payment (student loan, car, other installment loans). In the most...

Prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney warned that "credit cards are the next credit crunch," as contracting credit lines will lower consumer spending and hurt the U.S. economy. "Few doubt the importance of consumer spending to the U.S. economy and its multiplier effect on the global economy, but what is underappreciated is the role of credit-card availability in that spending," Whitney wrote in the Wall Street Journal. She said though credit was extended "too freely over the past 15 years" and rationalization of lending is unavoidable, what needs to be avoided was "taking credit away from people who have the ability...

Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park' As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues things are rapidly spiralling out of their control Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects. ... Glance at the debt markets and you hear a different tale. Not a single junk bond has been issued in Europe since August....

New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) has long been rumored as desperately seeking the democratic nomination for president in 2008. And while many political observers fully expect the power hungry former First Lady to hit the campaign trail within only a few months of being re-elected as a US Senator in 2006, US News & World report claims to have a confirmation of sorts. From USNews.Com's Washington Whispers: Hillary's in… You don't have to take it from us about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 's desire to run for president. Her brothers, Hugh and Tony Rodham, say it's true. Friends...

South Korea: Drifting Economy, Boiling Society Andy Xie (Hong Kong) at Morgan Stanley Korean society appears to be focusing on democratization and empowering people, demystifying government power, as well as decreasing the scope and social tolerance of corruption. Because of this, economic liberalization may take a backseat. Indeed, Korean society appears to be focusing on reducing the income inequality that economic liberalization may exacerbate. Korea’s economic establishment is deeply bearish about the present state of affairs, fearing that the lack of direction will depress the economy in the short term and may damage Korea’s longer-term economic competitiveness. The economic establishment...