Posted on 10/25/2001 6:11:10 PM PDT by crasher
No Congressional Redistricting (7)
Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming
Congressional Redistricting Completed (14): Democrats +1, Republicans -1
In the fourteen states that have completed redistricting, the projected net result is a Democratic gain of one seat and a Republican loss of one seat: Arkansas (no change), California (D+1), Georgia (R-2, D+4), Idaho (no change), Illinois (D-1), Indiana (R-1), Iowa (no change), Michigan (R+2, D-3), Missouri (no change), Nebraska (no change), Nevada (no change), Utah (no change), Virginia (no change), West Virginia (no change).
Arkansas: No partisan change projected from redistricting
An incumbent protection plan was passed by the Democratic legislature.
California: Democrats + 1
The first draft from the California assembly protects all incumbents expect Republican Steve Horn and Democrat Gary Condit. Condit's district is altered to include liberal Democrats from Stockton. Horn's district is eliminated, but Republicans get a new district that should be much easier to hold than Horn's was going to be. The 53rd district (the seat California gained), should be won by a Hispanic Democrat.
Georgia: Republicans -2, Democrats +4
After a month of negotiating, the legislature came to an agreement. In the most stunning use of gerrymandering so far (at least until Pennsylvania Republicans finish up their maps), the Democrats designed both of the new seats to be Democratic. In addition, the legislature agreed to make the 3rd and 11th districts much more Democratic. It seems likely that both of these seats will also be won by Democrats.
Idaho: No partisan change projected from redistricting
This is the most Republican state in the country. Redistricting won't give Democrats a chance at either seat.
Illinois: Democrats -1
Republicans and Democrats agreed on a plan that protects Chicago Democrats at the expense of Democrat David Phelps. His district was eliminated and he will be an underdog against whichever Republican incumbent he decides to challenge.
Indiana: Republicans -1
The Democrats forced through a plan that eliminated Republican Steve Buyer's seat. None of the other changes will in and of themselves affect the partisan makeup of Indiana's congressional district. Democrats still have Tim Roemer's open seat to worry about.
Iowa: No partisan change projected from redistricting
In the long run, Iowa's redistricting plan is likely to hurt Republicans. In the short term it will probably help them maintain their 4-1 majority. This is because the three Republican incumbents are all probably strong enough to win their respective districts, but Republicans will have real contests on their hands when any of them open up. Meanwhile, instead of having a difficult fight to win Greg Ganske's open seat, a new district was created that is very Republican.
Michigan: Republicans +2, Democrats -3
Give the Republicans an A+ here in the art of gerrymandering. The new map eliminates three districts currently held by Democrats and creates two new districts where Republicans will be favored.
Missouri: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Incumbent protection plan passed with bipartisan support.
Nebraska: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Delegation was 3-0 Republican before redistricting. There is little reason to expect that to change with the new redistricting plan.
Nevada: No partisan change projected from redistricting
A bipartisan plan was passed which protects the current incumbent from each party. The new seat is about as even as a district can possibly be drawn. Neither party has more than a minuscule advantage according to voting registration or the 2000 presidential election.
Utah: No partisan change projected from redistricting
With Republicans in control of the redistricting process, Democrat Jim Matheson was targeted. The new Congressional map puts him in a district that is more Republican and rural. Yet, it is still far from certain that Republicans will pick up this seat. Republicans still need to find a decent candidate and it remains to be seen whether they will find one.
Virginia: No partisan change projected from redistricting
The Republican plan, which was signed into law, protects their 8-3 majority.
West Virginia: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Unimportant changes made to present districts in plan passed by state legislature.
Congressional Redistricting Not Completed (29): Republicans +3, Democrats -4
The projected net result from states that have not completed redistricting is a Republican pickup of 3 seats, and a Democratic loss of 4 seats. When the projections for states that have completed redistricting are factored in, my overall projection for redistricting is a Republican pickup of 2 seats, and a Democratic loss of 3 seats.
Alabama: No partisan change projected from redistricting
The battleground is over the 3rd district, where Republican Bob Riley is running for governor instead of reelection. The legislature could not agree on a new map, so the courts will draw the new map.
Arizona: Democrats + 1
The redistricting commission recently presented a plan that neither party is happy with. The plan creates two safe hispanic Democratic districts and safe districts for all five Republican incumbents. The final seat is a rural seat that should be very competitive. So Arizona will go from having a 5-1 Republican delegation to having either a 6-2 or 5-3 Republican delegation. One of Arizona's new seats is going Democratic and the other is a tossup.
Colorado: Republicans + 1
Redistricting is going to the courts, but in all likelihood Colorado's new seat will be drawn to favor a Republican.
Connecticut: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Connecticut is losing a seat, but is unclear which party it will come from. The most often mentioned scenario is a matchup between Democrat Jim Maloney and Republican Nancy Johnson. That race would be a tossup. Another concern is the seat held by Rob Simmons. His district will probably not be eliminated, but it is already Democratic and Democrats want to make it even more so. Regardless of redistricting, his race should also be considered a tossup. After 2002, Connecticut could have anything from 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats to 4 Democrats and only 1 Republican. But right now, no party can assume gains from redistricting.
Florida: Republicans + 2
Florida gains two seats and the legislature seems inclined to draw both of them Republican. Republicans talk about making even bigger gains, but I would bet against it. This will be one of the last states to draw a new Congressional map.
Hawaii: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Redistricting not likely to change much in this very Democratic state. Kansas: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Dennis Moore was going to have a difficult fight without redistricting. With Republicans in control of redistricting, he will have an even greater challenge. This could very well result in a Republican pickup, but not primarily because of redistricting.
Kentucky: No partisan change projected from redistricting
The most likely consequence of redistricting is Northup's district becomes more Republican and Lucas's district becomes more Democratic. This should help keep the delegation at 5-1 Republican.
Louisiana: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Republican Cooksey's open 5th district will be the big battle. This district is competitive as it is drawn now, and will probably still be competitive after it is redrawn.
Maine: No partisan change projected from redistricting
No major changes expected.
Maryland: Republicans -1, Democrats +1
Republicans are very lucky to hold 4 out of Maryland's 8 seats. Democrats dominate the redistricting process and want to change this. At a minimum they will try and make Morella's district even more Democratic than it already is. They also want to draw another Democratic seat, at the expense of another Republican, somewhere else. I am not yet prepared to believe that they will net two seats, but I will award them one seat from the redistricting process.
Massachusetts: No partisan change projected from redistricting
The Democrats are fighting amongst themselves about whether or not to eliminate Meehan's district. However this comes out, it won't lead to a Republican pickup.
Minnesota: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Republicans control the House, Democrats control the Senate, and Jesse Ventura is governor. No wonder they can't agree on a new map. Expect the courts to draw it for them. The most important thing for both parties is what happens to Democrat Bill Luther's district. Republicans are betting that Luther's seat becomes even more favorable for them. But he was going to have a tough race anyway.
Mississippi: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Mississippi is losing a seat. The most likely outcome is Republican Chip Pickering and Democrat Ronnie Shows get drawn into the same district. Democrats control the process and expect to make a seat that will favor a Shows. But it is going to be difficult for them to draw a 3-1 Democratic majority in this state, especially with Bennie Thompson guaranteed a surplus number of Democratic votes because of the Voting Rights Act. For now, I don't give either party an advantage.
New Hampshire: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Redistricting unlikely to produce significant changes.
New Jersey: No partisan change projected from redistricting
The congressional delegation has agreed on a plan which would increase Republican votes in Ferguson's district and Democratic votes in Holt's district. If it is approved, and it probably will be, no partisan change should be expected.
New Mexico: No partisan change projected from redistricting
It is unlikely that Gary Johnson and the Democratic legislature will agree on a plan. Gary Johnson has already vetoed one plan which would have given Democrats another seat.
New York: Democrats -1, Republicans -1
Both parties expect a plan to be approved that will eliminate a Republican and a Democratic seat.
North Carolina: No partisan change projected from redistricting
North Carolina will be drawing a new seat unless Utah's lawsuit succeeds. The Democrats control redistricting (although they have a very slim majority in the House), but the new seat will probably still be winnable for a Republican.
Ohio: Democrats -1
Republicans control the process, and with Ohio losing a seat, at least one Democratic seat will be eliminated. There is some talk that Republicans may try to gain another seat, but for now that seems unlikely.
Oklahoma: Republicans -1
Oklahoma is losing a seat and Republican Ernest Istook is the most likely victim.
Oregon: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Major changes unlikely.
Pennsylvania: Republicans +1, Democrats -3
Pennsylvania will lose two seats. Republicans control the process and will make sure that they are both Democratic seats. In addition, the current betting is that Republicans will gain one seat, maybe even two, from redistricting. Expect a 12-7 or maybe even 13-6 Republican majority.
Rhode Island: No partisan change projected from redistricting
No major changes expected.
South Carolina: No partisan change projected from redistricting
The Republican legislature and Democratic Governor Jim Hodges are at a standstill.
Tennessee: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Van Hilleary (R) is running for governor, so how his seat is drawn is the major question mark. But redistricting alone is not enough to suggest that this seat leans one way or another.
Texas: Republicans +2
Texas is gaining two seats and the courts will decide how they are drawn. The best case scenario for Democrats is each party gains a seat. A realistic best case scenario for Republicans is probably a gain of four, with Democrats losing two seats. The federal court that is deciding redistricting has a Democratic tilt, so a middle of the road guess is Republicans gain both of the new seats, but nothing else.
Washington: No partisan change projected from redistricting
Non-partisan commission will draw the new lines. Right now neither party can count on gains.
Wisconsin: Democrats -1
The two Milwaukee Democratic seats will likely be combined into one.
You can also see the website at www.watsonreport.com
Good news is that Cathy Keating is very conservative! Bad news is that we are stuck with a RAT unless someone can get Dr. Tom Coburn to run again who is probably about the only Republican that could win that area!
As far as I know, the legislature is still fighting Keating on this. The thing I wonder about, is how Keating's plan affects Wes Watkins district. As it is now, it would be hard for us to hold when he retires. If we are going to give the Democrats a lock on Carson's district, we should get a much more Republican Watkins district in return.
The article predicted that we would gain seats in Nevada and Arizona from redistricting. Unfortunately both of those districts lean slightly Democratic, and should be considered tossups.
Hope after the 2002 elections that we pick up at least one House of the Legislature. I would really like to be greedy and pick up both of them along with a Republican Governor and see if we can get some things done! It took Gov Keating almost his whole two terms to get Right to Work even on the ballot and it passed!
How it affects the five members of Congress is another matter. Currently Republicans control only 1 out of the 5 districts. It would be next to impossible, and stupid from a Democratic perspective, to try and make all 5 districts Democratic. So the worst case scenario is the status quo. And I have yet to see any evidence that would suggest that any of the 4 districts currently held by Democrats is going to be altered enough to make a Republican pickup likely. I think it is accurate.
Pennsylvania may be a marginally Democrat state, but a 2-1 majority for Republican seats is not likely to produce a map like Georgia because Democrats tend to be clumped in the cities. Georgia, while it has a fair mix of urban and rural (Zell Miller type) Democrats, is trending Republican overall, so an increased Democrat majority makes no sense.
Georgia Republicans do seem resigned to allowing the Georgia map to become law. All of Georgia's 8 Republicans already are making decisions as if it is the final word. The Bob Barr-John Linder race is the best example of this. I think one reason Republicans doubt they can overturn the map is because Georgia law does not put any restrictions on how the map can be drawn.
I agree that the Pennsylvania map, if it ends up being 13-6, will not be as ludicrous as the Georgia map in terms of how the districts will look, and for the reason you mentioned. However, a 13-6 Republican majority in Pennsylvania is at least as rediculous as a 7-6 Democratic majority in Georgia.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.