Posted on 12/31/2002 1:30:03 PM PST by Timesink
There were three threads created last year for 2002 predictions:
1) 2002 Predictions!!!! Also: How did you do last Year??
Now is the time! Come forward and proclaim to all your psychic brilliance, or prepare to be pointed at and poked with sharp sticks!
Robert Torricelli is easily reelected to the Senate after a remarkably ineffective and under financed campaign by his GOP opponent.
George Pataki is ousted in an upset win by Andrew Cuomo.
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is elected Governor of Maryland in a squeaker, benefiting from some suspiciously late returns from Baltimore that just put her over the top.
49'ers win the Super Bowl.
I did get one of these right however, and the other may still come true:
Japanese economy remains mired in recession as they continue to refuse to cut taxes.
Washington D.C. or Northern VA gets a major league baseball team.
I think I also deserve partial credit for being a year early in predicting ABC would take Dennis Miller off MNF in the 2001 predictions.
OK so maybe I am dreaming. Rudy Guiliani will be appointed to take over the INS/Border Patrol/Visa Clearing House, and other messes withing the Homeland Security Department, etc. Heck, maybe he will even take Tom Ridge's job in the course of events.
Nasdaq reaches 2800 trading range.
Republicans retake Senate, 51-49.
33 posted on 12/31/2001 4:01 PM PST by Petronski
Nasdaq is 1330, but the Senate prediction makes up for it.
1. German government will fall over no-confidence vote engendered by higher taxation and reduced benefits spending. Greens out of new coalition.
2. Chavez out in Argentina. Coalition government will take over, will fall by year's end.
3. Saddam Hussein will experience a nasty accident.
4. North Korea will fail at extorting new aid from U.S., will attempt to do so from UN. UN will offer aid in return for inspectors, which NK will keep on a short leash.
5. Riots spread in Iran but no revolution - yet.
6. Attempted Wahhabi putsch in Saudi Arabia will cause factional fighting for control of successor government.
7. More fighting in Chechneya.
8. Islamic fundamentalists will attempt unsuccessfully to gain control of Pakistan government.
9. General decline in value of Euro - (wild guess) - $0.80 US. General gain in U.S. GDP - 3.5%. Oil stabilizing at $36-40 a barrel.
10. BtD stripped of Mr. Universe title due to steroid use. Claims it was only acne medication.
That "post" button is so forever...
Happy New Year, everyone!
1. The Iraq war will be won decisively and will create a rally in the stock market.
2. The Hulk and Matrix Reloaded will be the top films of the year with Return of The King.
3. There will be 1-2 more tourists on the ISS
4. The first suborbital tests of vehicles designed for space tourism will be successful, with the first paying passengers going in space at the end of the year or the beginning of 2004.
5. The dems will continue to try stunts to thwart Bush's popularity and it will keep blowing up in their faces.
Mainly accurate
2) Argentina will become an even bigger mess as no one will bail them out for all their fiscal mismanagement.
Mainly True
3) In the US elections, the Republicans will pick up seven seats in the House of Representatives, largely due to redistricting. Connecticut will be represented by three Republicans and only two Democrats, as Joe Maloney will lose his election to Nancy Johnson (RINO), as they would share districts. Republicans also score key victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas (somewhat surprisingly), and California, which is thoroughly disgusted with Condit and Davis.
Mainly True, but some details not
4) The Senate is another story, and Democrats make stunning gains, picking up three Senate seats. Among those defeated are Elizabeth Dole, Tim Hutchinson, Richard Durbin, Bob Smith, and Gordon Smith. Republicans pick up two seats: Tim Johnson of SD and Max Baucus of Montana. Daschle's glee is somewhat muted by Johnson's loss.
Totally inaccurate, details and all...
5) FBI Agents will thwart a significant terrorist plot, although not a plot like September 11. However, it's still a confidence booster for the population to know the FBI is on the job. New videos of shadowy figures will be speaking Arabic discussing how Allah wants them to blow up a bunch of infidels.
Inaccurate, unless they didn't tell us...
6) The Dow Jones average will close above 11,000 in 2002, a gain of about 10% for the year. The Nasdaq will gain 15% for the year, largely due to the reweighting of the index with more biotech stocks.
Really wrong
7) The Yankees will win the World Series again, and MLB will begin a review of revenue sharing as fan interest and merchandising income starts to drop, although it's only a slight drop.
Wrong
8) Jim McGreevey will really botch the governship job in NJ, and declare that increased taxes and tolls are necessary. This will further NJ's economic decline, as businesses start relocating to other states.
Mainly true
9) The new government will still be in power in Afghanistan with heavy international support. However, nothing in the country will really work, and the government won't have any power outside of the major cities.
Mainly True
10) Mike Bloomberg will find that running NYC isn't so easy, and the populace will begin to long for Rudy.
Mainly true.
Well, most of the predictions I got right weren't that hard to predict. The ones I got wrong were the important ones...
One year ago tonight, I made a total of 39 predictions for the year 2002, many of them quite specific.
Of those, I believe I've been proven definitely wrong (or mostly wrong) on only 6. I am also apparently wrong on one other, making a total of 7. However, a couple of those have interesting points to add... as I was wrong... but not by much.
6 more of my predictions showed mixed results: I was partly right. And on 2 prognostications, the jury is still out.
The remaining 24 predictions (1 of them tongue-in-cheek but 23 of them serious) were all correct, or substantially so.
Here they were:
1) At least one Islamist terrorist attack will occur or be thwarted between December 31st and January 7th.
Correct.
a) The Israel National News reported that the IDF’s elite anti-terror unit Duvdevan thwarted a wide-scale terrorist attack on the morning of January 4, 2002. “Based on intelligence information of an imminent assault..., the forces... moved in and killed one Hamas terrorist and captured two others... 'The operation achieved its objective, and a very large-scale attack against Israeli civilians in the Samaria region was thwarted. The cell was on its way to carrying out a wide-scale, exceedingly-large operation with the objective of murdering Israeli civilians.'”
b) On January 5, 2002, Charles Bishop, a 15-year-old Arab-American admirer of Osama bin Laden, deliberately crashed a small airplane into the Bank of America building in downtown Tampa, Florida.
2a) Osama bin Laden will not be found.
2b) If he is found, he will be dead, or die during the operation that finds him.
Correct.
3a) Mullah Omar will be found.
3b) He will be given a summary trial by his enemies, then shot. This may or may not be publicly revealed.
This is the one on which I was apparently wrong. Although... wasn't he actually located, fired upon and narrowly missed by US forces? If so, then I came within a hair's breadth of being substantially correct -- in every detail except the summary trial.
4) New leadership will emerge within al-Qaeda, but we will not know who they are.
Correct, according to New York Times/ FBI/ CIA, as reported here in June.
5) India and Pakistan will engage in a few skirmishes, but stop short of a major war.
Correct.
6) Violence will continue to escalate in Palestine during the first 6 months of 2002. There will be a major outbreak of conflict by year's end.
Correct, although the escalation and major outbreak of violence were quicker than I foresaw.
7) Arafat will defy the odds and survive the year.
Correct. This prediction flew in the face of what just about everyone else was saying.
8) Several terrorist attacks will be attempted on American interests. Most of these will be by fewer than four players, and most of these will be thwarted.
Correct, although "several" was an understatement. The CIA or FBI (which was it) recently reported that they had thwarted in the neighborhood of 100 attempted terrorist attacks on US interests.
9a) Public interest and support in battling terrorism will wane during the first half of the year, only to be renewed by a major attack during the second half of the year.
9b) This attack will be large, but not as big as September 11.
9c) It will not be a random attack on America, but will strike at a target of symbolic importance.
Substantially correct. By mid-August, President Bush was being "implored by supporters to muffle war drums" (see here). Two things changed: 1) Bush made the case against Iraq in front of the United Nations, and 2) we suffered an Islamist terrorist attack which was the talk of the entire country for 3 weeks. The attacks began on October 2 and ended on October 24 with the arrest of John Muhammad and John Lee Malvo. The attack was small in many respects, but large in the sense of its effect on the nation and in the geographical area specifically covered and terrorized by the assailants, and the ongoing time frame (3 weeks). And it was not a random attack -- the assailants traveled literally all the way across the country specifically for the purpose of terrorizing the entire nation's capital region.
10) Ronald Reagan will pass quietly away and be sadly mourned and honored by legions of Americans.
Incorrect.
11) The Queen Mum will pass quietly away and be sadly mourned and honoured by legions of Brits.
Correct. The Queen Mum died in her sleep at 3:15 p.m., March 30, 2002.
12) The Pope will survive until 2003, but not much longer.
Correct in the first regard, and probably in the second. The Pope is still alive, but in frailty and ever-declining health.
13) Lord of the Rings will hold strong and steady during the opening weeks of 2002, slowly gaining on Harry Potter. In the final analysis, LOTR-FOTR will fall short - but not by much.
Correct. My specific criteria for this prediction was imdb.com's listing of all-time worldwide top box office films. Harry Potter ended up grossing $968 million worldwide, making it #2 in history. LOTR-FOTR came in at #5 of all time, at $860 million worldwide.
14) On January 1, 2003, Lord of the Rings will still occupy the #1 slot in imdb.com's listing of the all-time greatest movies. The Two Towers will also be listed somewhere in the top 50. The Godfather will remain #2.
Mixed. LOTR-FOTR dropped from the #1 slot to #4, although without the weighting system they use on votes, it should be ahead of the current #3 film. Obviously, the Godfather being #2 was dependent on FOTR being #1. And as of today, January 1, 2003, The Two Towers is listed as #10 on imdb.com's listing of the all-time greatest films.
15) Following the second major terrorist attack, the United States will find the political will to take on Saddam Hussein, and he will fall in a way similar to the fall of the Taliban.
Mixed. We've found the political will, but things are moving more slowly than I had foreseen. And unless a war is somehow averted, his swift doom seems certain.
16) A new craze will catch on among American children, dampening Harry Potter, Pokemon, etc.
Incorrect.
17) The stock market will go sideways for most of the year, a) with the exception of certain technology stocks, which will explode. b) They will not be information technology stocks.
Pretty much incorrect. Bottom line is that the stock market has gone down during the year.
18) The first human clone will be born. Unfortunately, as time goes on, defects in the baby will become apparent.
Let's say the jury is still out, although the first part, at least, appears to be correct. I believe the second part will be correct as well.
19) There will be a surprising new discovery in the field of physics.
The jury is also still out on this one.
In March, it was announced that scientists had indeed come up with a method of achieving tabletop fusion. Such an accomplishment has the potential to provide massive amounts of cheap energy, end dependence on oil, etc. It was expected by many that the big announcement, and hot controversy, would be quickly followed by either a confirmation or a disproof.
Oddly, we have heard nothing but stony silence on the subject since then. And nobody seems to know quite why.
20) Medical scientists will make significant progress against cancer and the common cold.
Correct on both counts: see here and here.
21) Scientists will continue the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, but no confirmable signal will be detected.
Correct.
22) An assassination attempt on Vladimir Putin will fail.
Incorrect -- although assassination attempts on the Presidents of France, Pakistan and Afghanistan all failed, and an assassination attempt on one of Russia's governors succeeded.
23) A Columbine-style attack will be thwarted before it can occur.
Substantially correct -- happened just a month ago, in Texas.
24) Bill Clinton will remain Bill Clinton. New accusations will emerge, but few will pay much attention.
I believe this one to be substantially correct also. There were one or two new things that came up from his turn at the Presidency, plus allegations of a "love child." But, true to my prediction, few people paid much attention.
25) Chandra Levy's body will not be found, nor will the case be solved.
Mixed. Body found, case remains unsolved.
26) Gary Condit will fail in his reelection bid, by a narrow margin.
Mixed. Failed, but by a more substantial margin, in the primary.
27) The JonBenet Ramsey case will not be solved, either.
True.
28) A book will be published which will at least somewhat rekindle interest in God.
Mixed. Time reported, "The biggest book of the summer is [a Christian novel] about the end of the world." However, the 2.75 million hardcover copies of "The Remnant" still went unnoticed by a great many Americans.
29) Will Smith's star will rise during 2002...
Visibly correct. "Men in Black II" broke all the motion-picture records for a film opening the 4th of July weekend.
30) ...and OJ Simpson's [star] will continue to sink.
Also correct. There was a warrant out for his arrest in Florida for failure to appear in court concerning a little matter of speeding through a manatee zone in a power boat (I'm swear not making this stuff up!)
31) Ted Kennedy will be hospitalized...
Incorrect as far as I know.
32) as will Strom Thurmond.
Apparently incorrect -- but oddly, this was actually reported here at FR by another FReeper -- even though it never happened!
33) Jesse Jackson will experience some sort of public setback.
Big one. Kenneth Timmerman published an ugly expose on Jesse Jackon, Shakedown: Exposing the Real Jesse Jackson, which despite an almost total lack of major media attention immediately raced to the #1 best-selling slot on Amazon.com. Released on the 4th of March, at year's end it was still far outselling both of Al & Tipper Gore's highly-publicized, newly released books.
34) There will be a political scandal involving a United States Senator.
Again, big time. And not just any old Senator, either, but the Senate Minority Leader andpresumed next Majority Leader -- Trent Lott.
35) US friendship with Russia will continue to grow.
I would say this has been correct, for the most part.
36) Russia's economy will pick up the pace.
And believe this to be correct also.
37) a) The US economy will recover, b) but slowly and not without setbacks.
Mixed. I wouldn't say it's recovered yet, though there have been some signs. There have also been signs of setbacks.
38) Janet Reno will not be elected governor of Florida.
The little red truck crashed, I believe at a dance...
39) and, finally, Edgar van Pelt will fade into obscurity.
So was I right or was I right or was I right? ;-)
Unlike last year, I will not make many predictions for 2003. 2003 is a year for major questions, not a gaggle of smaller ones.
Shouldn't that be a 2004 prediction?
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