Lessons of the Fall

The American Enterprise Online ^ | January/February 2003 | Grover Norquist

[billorites]

Democrats had hoped that a traditional out-of-power party pickup in the House and Senate would translate into a national political message that Social Security is once again untouchable, prescription drugs are a silver bullet, and Americans have overcome their inordinate fear of taxes and gun control.

The lessons learned flowed in the other direction.

First, Social Security privatization proposals are not the proverbial third rail of American politics. When Governor George W. Bush embraced the idea of allowing younger Americans to put some of their Social Security taxes into personal savings accounts, Democrats hoped that he had committed political suicide. His win in November 2000 proved that the issue was open to discussion, but many believed that while it had proved safe for Bush to talk about, it would continue to be a dangerous issue for Republican Congressional candidates. Democrats spent millions attacking GOP candidates on this issue; some Republicans did back off. Others, like incoming senators Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Norm Coleman of Minnesota, found they could run effectively on Social Security reform rather than cringe before accusations that they wanted to gut the popular program. The Democrats will try to use the issue again in 2004 and, should they fail, real reform can commence.

Second, taxes remain the most powerful issue benefiting Republicans and hurting Democrats. Tax-hiking governors were defeated—every single new Republican in the House and Senate signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge not to raise taxes. In Massachusetts, a Libertarian Party-inspired initiative to abolish the state’s income tax received 45 percent of the vote. In Northern Virginia, the entire political establishment from Democratic Governor Mark Warner to Republican Senator John Warner endorsed a referendum to raise the sales tax by one half cent to pay for new roads; it still lost by a 10 percent margin.

Third, the Democrats remain unable to refrain from talking about gun control. Like dogs drawn to their own vomit, Democrats, who had prided themselves on their ability to shut up about guns, found themselves attacking gun owners in the wake of the Washington-area sniper killings. While Bill Clinton had always insisted that he would never touch anyone’s hunting rifles—he only wanted “reasonable” regulation of handguns—Democrats decided to threaten owners of hunting rifles two weeks before the elections. This probably increased the Republican vote in rural Maryland enough to elect Bob Ehrlich, the first Republican to lead the traditional Democratic stronghold since Spiro Agnew won the governor’s mansion in 1966.

Fourth, this is not a 49 percent nation with both parties evenly balanced. Republicans now hold the upper hand. Republican candidates for the House of Representatives won over 53 percent of the two-party vote while Democrats took about 46 percent. In the 34 senatorial elections, Republicans won over 52 percent of the vote. And even while it suffered a net loss of two governors’ mansions—the GOP still won almost 53 percent of votes cast in elections for states’ chief executives. Republicans also gainedover 120 state legislative seats and now hold a majority of all seats in state legislatures. The GOP has complete control of both houses in 22 states while the Democrats hold both houses in only 17 states; 10 states have divided control. (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is officially non-partisan but Republicans hold de facto control.) In other words, the new Republican majority is both broad—and deep.

Fifth, the Democrats’ greatest failure was the inability to communicate with the growing investor class of Americans who own stock. When President Bush was elected, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 10,952. On Election Day 2002, it was 8,678. Americans lost $7 trillion; they rewarded the party in power nonetheless. Why? Because the Democrats couldn’t plausibly explain how Bush caused this loss of wealth or how they would raise the value of investors’ 401(k)s and IRAs. Voters did know that the traditional Democrat attitude toward the Fortune 500 is to tax, regulate, and attack.

Sixth, Republicans have a political leader in George W. Bush. Democrats have...well...Bill Clinton?

Issueless. Leaderless. A shrinking minority. This is no way for the Democrats to head into 2004.

[billorites]

"Like dogs drawn to their own vomit, Democrats, who had prided themselves on their ability to shut up about guns, found themselves attacking gun owners in the wake of the Washington-area sniper killings"

Well put.

[Batrachian]

We should not think we're home free. The viciousness and stridency of the Democrat's opposition to all of GWB's legislative initiatives, and especially to his judicial appointments, will be like nothing we've ever seen before. It will take guts and a certain masochism to enact those things. If our party lacks stomach and backbone it will achieve little. I hope the new Senate leader is more aware that he is, in fact, majority leader. I think Trent Lott sometimes forgot that.

Meanwhile, a Hillary Clinton presidency lurks in the background like an evil nightmare.