Aircraft Carrier for PLA Navy

Initial Data In mid-May 2002, the South China Morning Post and some other Hong Kong papers published a series of reports regarding the Varyag aircraft carrier that had just arrived in China. The reports can be compressed into the following:

The aircraft carrier, built by Nikolayev Shipyard in Ukraine, owned by a Hong Kong firm and initially intended to be used as a floating casino and hotel, came in May 2002 to Dalian Shipyard, one of the largest and most advanced in China, after being towed for 110 days by tugboats halfway around the world. The Varyag was bought for $20 million in 1998.

The ship is surrounded in Dalian with heavy security, which bars civilian access; police officers flank the shipyard entrance. This has fueled speculation that the Varyag is being used by the Chinese military in an attempt to build its first operational aircraft carrier.

Varyag no longer has the nuclear reactors that were installed by the Ukrainian state-run Generating Systems of Crimea. Presently 70 percent complete, Varyag weighs only 33,600 tons. Construction on this Kuznetzov-class carrier was started in 1985, but work ceased in 1992 after the Soviet Union's collapse and the ship's transfer to the Ukrainian government, which could not find the exorbitant $200 million to finish the construction. (end of messages)

After getting this information, the author came to the conclusion that (a) the probability of Varyag becoming PLAN's (PLA Navy's) first aircraft carrier could be estimated as about 70 percent, and (b) this project could be completed by 2006.

Negotiations between China and Ukraine regarding the Varyag purchase started in 1995.

On Dec. 29, 1995, the Moscow-based Segodnya newspaper (closed by order of President Putin in spring 2001) wrote:

"As expected, in 1996, China will buy from Ukraine the aircraft-carrying heavy cruiser Varyag, now 70 percent finished. Construction was terminated in 1992. Varyag has a full deadweight of 70,500 tons, a length of 304 meters, a maximal speed of 32 knots [about 58 km per hour]. Varyag could deploy up to 24 fighters with vertical landing/takeoff [VTOL], such as SU-25 UTG, SU-27 K, MiG-29L, and up to 42 naval combat helicopters, such as KA-29 and KA-31. In addition, a number of [cruise] missiles could be deployed from Varyag."

Almost simultaneously, discussions about acquiring the first Chinese aircraft carrier began among the PLA top brass. They soon spread throughout the entire Chinese society. For example, in 1998 the Beijing media claimed, based on the results of public polls, that "construction of Chinese aircraft carriers is one of the top desires of Chinese youth."

According to the Zhongguo Xinxi Bao newspaper (published by the China State Statistical Department) on Jan. 14, 2002, "a poll conducted in November 2001 and embracing over 4,200 people in Chinese cities gave the following answers to the question: 'What do you expect during the coming five years [2001-2005]?'" (The answers were given in descending order of support.)

#16. China will construct (from scratch or based on an imported platform) its first aircraft carrier: 23.2 percent supported.

During almost all of 2001, Varyag, together with its towing vessels, was "making the rounds" over the Black Sea, without getting Turkish permission to pass the Bosporus Strait. Finally, in January 2002, the huge vessel entered the Mediterranean Sea and started the long way to Dalian.

At the end of August 2002, one of Moscow's opposition papers published a lengthy report from Nikolayev Shipyard. This included an interview with Ivan Vinnik, the construction chief of Varyag.

"Ivan Vinnik laid 4,000 km of cables in Varyag. He built 2,500 rooms under its major deck. Varyag alone, if finished and put into service, would be capable of controlling [balancing] the entire navy of Turkey.

"Now, having been sold cheaply to China, this ship will [establish] control over Taiwan. Varyag was finished for 60 percent, so it could deploy SU-series fighters for Black Sea operations. Soon, after a small upgrade, Varyag will enter [combat service in] the Yellow Sea."

Almost simultaneously, on Aug.23-24, the media of Taiwan and Hong Kong, and U.S.-based Chinese language papers published reports of the following kind:

It becomes more and more evident that the unfinished aircraft carrier Varyag won't be transformed – as it was initially supposed – into the world's largest casino and restaurant complex, but, to the contrary, will be re-equipped into PLA's first aircraft carrier.

Earlier, some Western experts, including those from Western embassies in Beijing, supposed that Varyag would be dissected, researched in detail by Chinese specialists and used for construction of the first PLA aircraft carrier "from scratch." Now it appears that Varyag will be used not as a "model" but as a platform to construct the carrier.

According to data obtained by U.S. spy satellites, Varyag, beginning from its arrival in Dalyan on May 14, has been visited by multiple high-ranking PLA officers, and no work aimed at transforming this vehicle into a commercial enterprise is taking place [so this project has been abandoned].

Some U.S. military experts consider that, in the case of conflict around Taiwan, the PLA will concentrate major strikes on the U.S. Navy, and Varyag could become "PLA's trump card" here. If China decided to build its first aircraft carrier "from scratch," it wouldn't be ready until 2010 [and PLA wants to get the carrier much earlier].

Finally, it became known, in the beginning of September, that China is engaged in talks with Russia about purchasing MiG-29M-E and MiG-29M-D fighters, the best modifications among MiG-29 series fighters. The reason is that these fighters have VTOL capabilities and can be deployed from an aircraft carrier. Some kinds of SU-30 series fighters also have this feature.

MiG-29M fighters could be based on the Chinese aircraft carrier [carriers] under construction now or – after repair and upgrading – on some old carriers earlier purchased by China in Russia [and Ukraine]. The MiG-29M-E and M-D models' maximum range is equal to 2,900 km and 3,500 km, respectively. They could carry missiles and bombs of total weight up to 4,000 kg. (end of reports)

Dalian Shipyard, the head enterprise of China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Group Corp., is indeed one of the largest and most advanced shipyards in China. Particularly, it is engaged in construction of civilian and naval vessels with the maximum, for China, deadweight, namely:

Oil tankers of 300,000 tons deadweight; the first such tanker was finished at the end of 2001 and was transferred to an Iranian customer.

Missile destroyers of Luhai and "improved Luhai" class, with 7,000- to 8,000-ton deadweight; another such destroyer reportedly was transferred to the PLA in July. Without doubt, Dalian Shipyard is the only enterprise in China capable of constructing the new aircraft carrier or of renovating and upgrading an existing one that was purchased abroad. Taking into account all the data given above, it is possible to estimate the "Varyag as platform for PLA aircraft carrier" project probability now as 85 percent to 90 percent.

Of course, even Dalian Shipyard will have a problem making the huge engines for Varyag. However, this enterprise would easily invite hundreds of naval shipbuilding specialists from Ukrainian Nikolayev and Sevastopol cities, from Russian Petersburg, Severodvinsk and Khabarovsk, so there would be no problem after all.

It is supposed that the two Sovremenny destroyers and eight Kilo submarines newly ordered from Russia would enter PLA service at the beginning of 2006. Very probably, the upgraded Varyag will start its new service at the same time as the "core" of the newly created PLA aircraft carrier group. What will happen in 2006?

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

"Hmmm. So they said it would be a floating casino and now it turns out they're going to use it as an aircraft carrier to menace their neighbors.

Why am I not surprised by this? People have to wake up. China is a dangerous and ruthless nation that considers America an enemy. They are not our friend by any definition of the word."

Keep in mind this is a carrier with about half the capability (air contigent) of any of the TWELVE carriers fielded by the USN.

It will be silently followed every day of it's seagoing life by a SSN waiting for orders to kill it. I'm not afraid.

Let's parse this, folks:

This vessel is essentially a hulk. It has no engineering plant; ripping the ship open to insert an entire engineering plant is not going to be easy. If it isn't a nuclear plant, then a LOT of space is going to be needed for bunker capacity.

In the end, it's a piece of crap, of questionable hull integrity, with a notional engineering plant, and it's going to operational in less than four years.

Sure thing...

Well, the Chinese navy could simply tow the carrier around to wherever they need it (grin)...

For $20 million, it would probably make a good investment in offshore floating condos/apartments. Tow it to Hong Kong, Tokyo, or San Francisco.

Heck, it's probably cheaper to pay the $20 million and build out rooms on that old hulk than it would be to convince San Francisco bureaucrats to issue permits for new Bay apartments.

It's probably got enough room for the equivilent of 10 stories worth of condos, too.

I have some news for NewsMax. The aircraft mentioned are NOT, repeat NOT S/VTOL (incorrectly labeled VTOL) aircraft. Rather, they are conventional aircraft with a navalized tailhook and holdback bar (the latter used for takeoff instead of the catapults familiar to the USN). If they were S/VTOL capable, then Russia wouldn't have dumped the old Kiev-class carriers (roughly equivalent to the British Invincibles).

That having been said, they're rather capable aircraft. Assuming that a couple of squadrons were made and survived the Cold War, that'll solve China's naval air force. However, if they were lost or otherwise converted back to normal planes, it'll be much harder for the ChiComs to get aircraft that'll work (you don't just hang a tailhook on the back of a plane and land it on a carrier, and the engines need to have sufficient push to get it off the deck without a catapult to help).

Further parsing:

There's plenty of room for bunkerage on an aircraft carrier, especially since it's not going to be steaming over to Los Angeles. As for the engineering plant, I'll have to check with my shipbuilding friends as to how long it would take to put a new plant in there, but considering that we're not entirely sure that the original nuke plant was ripped out, we can't discount the fact that it can go under its own power inside of 4 years (after all, the ChiComs do have a couple of nuke subs).

The fact that it was able to be towed from the Black Sea to China shows that it does have decent hull integrity. That having been said, I wonder what a spread of Mk48 ADCAPs will do to said integrity (sadly, that's about the only thing left in the arsenal that'll put a decent dent in its hide).

IF it's operational, I see it as capable of providing a one-time secondary attack axis. I won't go further into what mix of aircraft I'd expect to see (let's just say that if they're smart, it, and the 18 SS-N-19 Granit missiles that it carries, would provide a devastating 2 punch).

There's plenty of room for bunkerage on an aircraft carrier, especially since it's not going to be steaming over to Los Angeles.

Said bunkerage will come out of fuel and ordnance capacity, reducing operational effectiveness and on-station time.

As for the engineering plant, I'll have to check with my shipbuilding friends as to how long it would take to put a new plant in there, but considering that we're not entirely sure that the original nuke plant was ripped out, we can't discount the fact that it can go under its own power inside of 4 years (after all, the ChiComs do have a couple of nuke subs).

Said subs being radiological accidents waiting to happen (as are XUSSR naval reactors, assuming it's installed, which it probably AIN'T).

The fact that it was able to be towed from the Black Sea to China shows that it does have decent hull integrity.

And that the tow crew didn't push their luck. Sadly, the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea are some of the nastiest storm areas known to man.

That having been said, I wonder what a spread of Mk48 ADCAPs will do to said integrity (sadly, that's about the only thing left in the arsenal that'll put a decent dent in its hide).

A Harpoon or a Paveway would make more than a "decent dent." Any aircraft carrier is Disneyland for a fire--and Russian ships do NOT include much DC gear.

IF it's operational, I see it as capable of providing a one-time secondary attack axis.

My estimate: a ZERO-TIME attack axis.

I won't go further into what mix of aircraft I'd expect to see (let's just say that if they're smart, it, and the 18 SS-N-19 Granit missiles that it carries, would provide a devastating 2 punch).

Sure. Of course, if they shoot at decoys, they're hosed.

By 2006, that thing will have a small squadron of tactical nuke UCAVs with the battle group's name on it. It's big enough to target from low Earth orbit as well. (You can't tell me that those platforms aren't up there already.) Even if the US were to go back to fighting naval battles as we did in WWII (which is about the capability that the ChiComs will have), the learning curve for the ChiComs to actually use that ship with any proficiency will be many years. Indeed. It is the equivalent of handing a Vulcan to a gang-banger - it may be tough looking, but if you don't know how to shoot it it's no threat.

Kindly see the link in #15. That source is one that I trust (even if the person running that site is rather arrogant). It seems that the Varyag wasn't meant to be nuke-powered and is roughly the size of the Forrestal. Also, compared to the Forrestal's 80 aircraft and 4,600 crew (and nothing outside of a few AA guns left over from WWII), it would have 30 aircraft, 1,500 crew, and a heap of missiles.

Given that it also is designed to defend itself with SAMs (roughly equivalent to the Sea Sparrow), it'll be a feat to get close enough to use a Paveway, and a Harpoon simply doesn't have enough uumph to do much, at least if it doesn't hit something explosive like a magazine or a bunch of avgas (why, oh why did we get rid of the TASM?).

I seem to remember that the WWII-era PacFlt didn't think the Japanese capable of using aircraft carriers effectively. I only hope that the current PacFlt doesn't make the same mistake.

Tactical nukes? I don't think so, though if I were CINC-PacFlt, I'd have a couple of subs traling it. By 2006, the ChiComs will have enough nukes that are deliverable to the US to make a nuclear carrier strike politically unacceptable.

Given that its most-likely use is a single-shot weapon (much like the Soviet Navy doctrine), most aspects of carrier training won't necessarily need to be done. All that would really need to be done is takeoffs using the holdback bars and low-level overwater attacks. The remainder (navigation and firing the Granits) is merely a matter of scale.

You're far too easily impressed--there is more to a warship than a collection of statistics. Those missiles are one salvo only. 30 aircraft? Sheesh. Better to just buy another few hundred SU-27s.

First, an aircraft carrier is not much beyond being a floating JP fuel farm and bomb magazine. One Harpoon will make a very bad mess, especially with the latest warhead (adapted from the Kormoran warhead, designed to ignite massive CONFLAGs).

Second, the SAMs have their limits. It took more than one weapon to take down a WW2 carrier; a salvo of HARMs to take out the fire controls, followed by Skipper/Paveway-armed strikers.

As for why we got rid of TASM: it never worked as advertised. It was too easy to kill on arrival in the search box, and its search pattern was too small.

I seem to remember that the WWII-era PacFlt didn't think the Japanese capable of using aircraft carriers effectively. I only hope that the current PacFlt doesn't make the same mistake.

Actually, the WWII-era PacFlt had a healthy respect for Japanese NAVAIR. However, China has HUGE problems with its Navy--tacking on a carrier is a very bad idea for a fleet that has no area air defense.

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