WHO CONTROLS THE STATES?

As redistricting battle lines are drawn —the GOP is optimistic about winning the war.

BY THOMAS B.HOFELLER

This decade’s congressional line drawing is being waged with particular intensity because of two reasons: the narrow majority held by the GOP in the U.S. House, and the near parity Republicans and Democrats share over the control of the congressional redistricting process in the states. With 88 percent of the districts drawn, the good news is that, in spite of a significant redistricting control edge for Democrats, the GOP is clearly ahead in terms of districts moved into the solid GOP column or marginal districts created with a GOP advantage.

While estimates of total Republican gains range from several seats to as many as 10, the final outcome will most likely fall between four and seven. In addition to the likelihood of gaining these new GOP seats, we have also been able to strengthen many of our weaker districts. Given that the Democrats controlled redistricting in states containing a total of 135 seats compared to 98 for the Republicans, this outcome is a real GOP success story. As the majority party we have had more seats to defend, have been able to control the redrawing of fewer districts, and yet we are still winning the battle for more new seats—a testament to the cooperative efforts of the national and state parties. What is even more ironic is that, for the first time in four decades, the Democrats have been reduced to claiming victory because, to date, they have only lost a few seats.

The party’s success in the redistricting process is vital because the districts drawn this year will be used for the next five elections. It will be a key element in our ability to keep control of the House of Representatives, but not only because there will be more winnable GOP seats. Strengthening the present GOP-held districts also will help with incumbent retention and allow us to redirect technical and financial support to the most difficult congressional races.

Even though all redistricting takes place at the state level, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has played a pivotal role, providing expert technical, political and legal support to all GOP stakeholders. Before line drawing even began, the RNC invested millions of dollars supporting the election of legislative and statewide candidates whose positions were critical to control of the redistricting process. Education and training were provided to hundreds of prospective GOP participants.

After the arrival of the census data last year, our redistricting team became a vital resource to state parties, legislators, key statewide officials, redistricting attorneys and members of Congress. The RNC has also provided redistricting support to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), and more than 30 states have received on-site help with their redistricting efforts.

The combination of all of these dedicated resources has allowed the national party to develop and implement a cohesive national strategy. And, as a central repository of redistricting information that can be tapped by individual states, the RNC has enabled Republicans from across the country to more effectively implement their own state’s redistricting programs.

While there is no doubt that GOP stakeholders have looked to the RNC to provide leadership for this effort, our redistricting successes so far also stem from a real team effort that has required the participation and coordination of all elements of the GOP. Winning this battle will require the continued cooperation of our national party organizations, state parties, legislators, key statewide officials, and members of Congress.

The RNC and Republicans throughout the nation have a great story to tell. Cited below are just some of the GOP’s successes in important redistricting states:

Arizona Democrats expected to make big gains in Thomas B. Hofeller, Ph.D, is the Republican National Committee’s Redistricting Director. A redistricting expert, he has more than 30 years of experience in redistricting and census issues. His prior positions include serving as staff director of the U.S. House Subcommittee on the Census. Arizona as a result of a successful initiative shifting the line-drawing authority from the Legislature to a commission. The present Democrat state party chairman bankrolled this initiative and Democrats clearly expected to control the redistricting process. Due to the hard work of Arizona Republicans, the process ended up being even-handed, splitting Arizona’s two new districts between the two parties.

California Democrats, in full control of redistricting, were banking on a gain of three or four seats. Instead, Democrats were forced to settle for the new seat California gained due to reapportionment. All GOP incumbents seeking re-election were placed in safe districts. Our weakest district was redrawn as a new Democratic seat, and a new, safe GOP district was created in California’s Central Valley. Instead of becoming the victims of a Democrat gerrymander, the GOP actually emerged in a stronger position.

Florida In this state, fully controlled by the GOP and gaining two new seats due to reapportionment, the Legislature has created two new Republican seats, providing an excellent opportunity for a Republican challenger to defeat Democrat Karen Thurman. This is a three-seat gain for the GOP and a one-seat loss for the Democrats.

Illinois In a state with split control, Republicans, under the leadership of House Speaker Dennis Hastert, struck a deal that protected our incumbents. And, because Illinois is losing a seat due to reapportionment, two incumbents had to be placed in the same district— one that is now GOP-favored.

Michigan In this GOP controlled state the Democrats lost three seats. Two went to the Republicans and one was the seat lost to the state due to reapportionment. All of this was accomplished under Michigan’s strict anti-gerrymandering statutes.

Mississippi Through a superb legal effort, the GOP was able to turn back a vicious Democrat gerrymander. The Democrats, unable to get their gerrymander through their own Democrat-controlled Legislature ran out of time in state court. A well-timed GOP lawsuit in federal court resulted in a fair plan and a probable one-seat loss for the Democrats.

Nevada GOP negotiators struck a good deal with the Democrats resulting in a new competitive seat that favors the election of a Republican.

Ohio In this Republican-controlled state the new map gives the GOP an excellent opportunity to pick up the seat of retiring Democrat Tony Hall (OH-3). The seat shifting out of the state will result in an additional loss for the Democrats.

Pennsylvania The GOP, in full control, drew a map that offers an opportunity for a two-seat Republican pickup. Pennsylvania’s loss of two seats in the reapportionment became an additional two-seat loss for the Democrats— for a total loss of four seats.

Texas In spite of some overly enthusiastic predictions of large GOP gains, split control of the line drawing process resulted in a deadlock. A successful appeal by the GOP knocked out a disastrous plan drawn by a Democratic state judge and forced the remap into federal court. This court crafted a plan giving the GOP two strong new seats. In addition, Democrats’ three weakest seats (Hall, TX-4; Stenholm, TX-7; and Edwards, TX-11) were not strengthened.

Utah In full control, the GOP was able to weaken Democrat Jim Matheson’s district enough to give the GOP the edge in this seat.

Virginia Due to the GOP takeover in 1999, our redistricting gains were realized early. This cleared the way for Virgil Goode’s (VA-5) party switch to the GOP and for Randy Forbes’ willingness to run for, and win, the 4 th Congressional District seat left vacant by death of Norman Sisisky. This race would not have been seriously contended if the GOP had not been drawing the lines.

Not all the news is good, however. In states where the Democrats control line drawing, they have been able to make significant gains. Their greatest gains have been realized in Georgia and North Carolina. Georgia, a state gaining two new seats, was the site of the most bizarre gerrymander of the decade. A similar gerrymander was enacted in North Carolina and is about to be enacted in Maryland.

The congressional redistricting process is far from complete. The remaining states are Kansas, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York and Oklahoma.

In Maryland, another particularly vicious Democrat gerrymander is being fine-tuned. In New York, which is losing two seats, the traditional even split between the two parties should not be considered a sure bet.

The debates and legal battles over the completed plans will continue through the entire decade. Often the most important cases are decided long after the initial districts have been drawn. Litigation will be particularly intense through the end of next year.

It is vital that Republicans keep focused on this issue well beyond just this election year. If we do not, we could wake up one morning and find ourselves outflanked by the Democrats, and back in the minority in the U.S. House for the remainder of the decade.

We must also continue to give serious support to legislative and statewide elections, or we will end up with fewer seats at the table in next decade’s redistricting. We must be mindful that, while our success throughout the 1990s made this year’s redistricting victories possible, our vigilance through the next decade will determine the political legacy we leave after the 2010 redistricting.

About the Author:

Tom Hofeller served as the Staff Director of the U.S. House Subcommittee on the Census before moving to the RNC to become the Director of Redistricting. Tom has extensive knowledge of the redistricting and census process and has over 30 years of experience in this field. Tom has also been involved in line drawing and court cases in dozens of states including California, Texas, Florida and Michigan to name a few. He also is a qualified expert witness in federal court and has been part of the development of three generations of redistricting software.

Join Tom for the special RNC Sustaining Members ONLY Chatroom Event on May 16th Take full advantage of this chance to learn about the effects of redistricting and how it will be affecting our Party and nation for years to come. If you are a current Sustaining Member, you will receive an e-mail with details on how to RSVP

Of course, if the Republicans would retire spineless, eunuchs such as Trent Lott, and posted articulate conservatives such as Rick Santorum (PA), then we could and would win the old fashion way - good ideas, good people.

the final outcome will most likely fall between four and seven

The final outcome, which is on my spreadsheet, so it must be exact as the speed of light, it that the GOP gained 3.795 seats from redistricting. The projected gain overall is 3.295 seats due to seats in play not due to redistricting. This all assumes that the GOP doesn't suffer a mild plate tectonic shift against it due to the tanking stock market and the corporate scandals, which cannot be ruled out, although I my best guess is that the impact will be de minimus.

The Georgia district is ugly, but what the GOP drew around Pittsburg is not exactly a Rembrandt either. The article is in some part a puff piece. The truth lies somewhere inbetween. Most think the GOP got less than they expected, due to the debacle in Texas. I think they got about what could be expected, and benefit from the huge diminution in swing seats, which is good for GOP, but bad for politics as a whole.

I never understood from where these grandiose predictions about Texas redistricting arose. Anybody on the ground in Texas politics knew that liberal Pete Laney was never going to allow any GOP-friendly congressional redistricting out of the state house.

Frankly, the two new seats plus a weakening of several rural seats was better than I expected.

Let me ask you one simple question.

Do you believe that the UN is helping America or hurting us?

It depends on the time frame. Sometimes it helps, sometimes it hurts. You anti globalists however hugely exaggerate its importance one way or the other. What makes this world go round where and when it counts is not the UN.

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