Initial forecast models show as high as a cat 3-4 hurricane hitting the panhandle in 4 days.
Get your preparations done now, if you are anywhere in that area, to the bend of Florida
NOAA NCEP hurricane forecast and analysis system choose invest10
Posted on 08/26/2023 2:03:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse
I respect — and appreciate — your good nature as well, NN. Before he passed a decade ago at 80, every August I would spend a week/10 days with my dad at his home in North Ft Myers (easy to get a good tee time on Sanibel that time of year!), so I have a good sense of what you’re presenting here … and I thank you for doing so. This makes us FRiends for life although we may occasionally disagree … and I relish that. See you on the forum for sure, good sir. Cheers!
You are absolutely correct about this.
In 2005 I was living in Mississippi. The Weather Channel was at the height of it's popularity at the time and they figured out that "if it bleeds, it leads". Consequently for the prior several years there had been an endless barrage of hurricane/tropical storm "emergencies" bombarding everyone along the Gulf Coast. It seemed like every week there was another breathless storm warning forecasting doom. 99% of them turned out to be overblown nonsense and you had people evacuating several times based upon them.
A hurricane evacuation is not a trivial thing for most people, you have to secure everything at your home, take off work, find accommodations that'll accept pets if you have them, etc. After multiple instances of that over the years prior to Katrina people had grown weary of weather forecasters crying wolf and tuned them out. When Katrina started forming there were the usual warnings but people were desensitized and didn't spring into action in a way that they probably would have several years earlier, before the forecasters got trigger happy in search of ratings. As a result many people didn't pay any attention to Katrina until about 12 hrs before it hit, and it cost thousands of lives.
Declaring a state of emergency this early is irresponsible. All it does is allow the government to claim that they told us so if it turns out to be a major storm, otherwise it's just noise at this point. I'm living in Florida now, in Fort Walton Beach, and I'll be paying close attention to how it develops and ready to hitch the boat out & head out if needed. An emergency declaration right now is not helpful, that should be saved for when it really IS an emergency.
Initial forecast models show as high as a cat 3-4 hurricane hitting the panhandle in 4 days.
Get your preparations done now, if you are anywhere in that area, to the bend of Florida
NOAA NCEP hurricane forecast and analysis system choose invest10
opps...mixed things up. Should be TEN10L or was invest93L
Didn’t include Escambia, so I’m out of luck on that one.
Glad to know you have experienced the wonders of the FL Gulf Coast. Sanibel Island is a treasure. Sorry that you have lost you Dad. I hope you will take the opportunity to visit our sunshine state in the future.
With Brandon at the helm, it is always a good idea to have extra prescription meds in the cabinet, whether or not there is a hurricane. There are so many shortages these days. FJB, the worst POTATUS evuh.
The 2nd Florida preparedness tax holiday started today. Stock up on supplies.
Here’s the list of items and more details:
Be sure to exercise that generator if you haven’t recently.
Valuable tip to give the generators a stroll before a storm.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
000
WTNT45 KNHC 270244
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
Images from the Mexico meteorological service’s radar in Cancun show
that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with
spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center.
This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered
deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS.
The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an
initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located
to its north and northwest. The system is expected to continue
meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36
hours. After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to
begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the
southeastern coast of the U.S. The updated NHC track forecast lies
on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows
the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids.
Assuming the depression’s center does not move over the Yucatan
Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear
should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The
NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during
the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those
aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by
60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and
potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue
monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system’s expected
intensity as it approaches Florida. Land interaction and increasing
shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over
land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and
offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is
inland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Berg
Yeah, give it a couple days to decide where it wants to go, we got time
Meanwhile the waters are gorgeous, crystal clear, 86 degrees, no wind, another perfect beach day tomorrow, I’ll be there, I love the heat, lol
Who ever is President, if you live in Hurricane country, be prepared to go it alone for at least a week with no help.
FEMA is a joke. Unless you are one of the protected classes or in sight of the media, you are on your own. I have ridden out hurricanes for over 35 years.
If they declared an emergency, does that mean tolls are discontinued for the turnpike?
I’m in Ocala and have to go home tomorrow.
A free ride would be nice😁
I think tolls are suspended only when there are evacuations. A State of Emergency and evacs are not the same.
Words of wisdom. At least a gallon of potable water per person, per day. Don't forget the pets need fresh water too.
Lots of Hurricane Hunter/NOAA flights going to check out tomorrow.
Checking in to see how you are doing this morning.
HH “Miss Piggy” mission enroute to TD10.
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