Posted on 07/09/2020 8:32:22 AM PDT by Kaslin
Or wins NH and WI and loses MI and PA.
They don’t poll illegal alien voters in Nevada. However, if the lockdown continues, most of the worker will move before November. This favors Biden, as then those votes can be harvested by absentee ballot.
Rats seem to churn out a poll showing them up in AZ every couple weeks.
But a gravis/OANN poll from late June shows Trump +4 with likely voters. Rats dismiss it because it was for OANN.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Gravis_Arizona_June_2020.pdf
You can see here it’s crosstabs, massive edge for Biden among non-2016 voters and Trump getting a surprising 24% of the Jill Stein vote, 22% of Blacks (less 5% of the state so I’m guessing very small sample size) and an extremely high 76% of Asians. The poll also has McSally up 4, and has her leading among blacks, if anything that’s worrying for suggesting such a wide gap among blacks in favor of Senator who generally runs about 4 or 5 points behind Trump in most polls.
I don’t know what to make of ANY polling right now, I figure differentials are more useful than the actual numbers......where is Cambridge analytica when you need it.
I know of no recent NV polling.
This poll is not right simply because McSally isn’t winning anywhere. I don’t doubt Trump is up. Probably not as high with the groups they say.
I think Trump by 5 in Az is about right, McSally loses by 2-4. She truly is a terrible candidate.
As for Biteme getting an edge in non-2016 voters, garbage. Everything we are seeing from Trafalgar and Baris says the opposite, unless this is all 18 year olds. Both Trafalgar and Baris saying that the “shy Trump” voter is now even in more numbers than in 2016 and both pollsters have people admit in the non-polling part they are Trump voters but don’t want to say so officially.
Finally last week Baris had the economy move in front of health as the #1 concern.
7-9 points worse than Trump is a huge differential. I see no reason to believe it would be that bad. Latest MSM poll has Trump and Biden tied and McSally down 4. If Trump wins by 5 I think she wins.
In 2018 she had 10,000 Rs vote against her. She angered the Ward people that much.
She is absolutely the worst candidate I’ve ever seen, except for Roy Moore. Now she has an excuse with the China Virus to not be seen, but for over a year, NO GOP club could get her to speak. (I spoke to all of them. They were miffed.) She sent her college-age minions out. She would promise to show up, then at the last minute cancel.
So now she’s saved from that-—but her ads, while good, are totally out of tune. TWO MONTHS LATE she got out an ad on Kelly & China-—when the issues now were the China Virus and rioting. No statement yet from her. No congratulations on Trump’s great speech at Mt. Rushmore. NO public comments anywhere. She sponsors good bills, i.e., for vets. Fine. Wonderful. But that isn’t going to swing voters who are concerned about their businesses closing and about the BLM fascists.
She could have won this election by coming out against the Douchey shutdown. It would have been controversial, but she has lost the Karens anyway. Just unreal how she has handed this seat away, and virtually NO margin of Trump victory here would save her-—because the GOP faithful just won’t vote for someone who doesn’t want the job.
If Trump takes the popular vote, 9 States have electors that must vote for him and 18 more States are trying to pass that unconstitutional legislation by the election.
I was upset when McSally cavalierly conceded her tight race to Sinema in the first place, and I was even madder by the way she did it. Sitting on the floor of her living room and petting her cat while she cheerfully thanked her supporters. I saw no fire in her belly, which really irked me because Sinema is a lefty loon that Arizona doesn’t deserve and McSally didn’t seem to care about that. I must concede that Sinema hasn’t turned out to be as bad as I’d feared, but she’ll never be a Jon Kyl.
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