From My Friend Living in China: Trump CRUSHING China in Trade War

The Blacksphere ^ | 02/21/2019 | Kevin Jackson

[SaxxonWoods]

I now have been back in China for two years. I will be here for another two years, at least until October of 2020. After that I return to Florida. I want to give you some updated news from inside China. First, The Donald is winning the trade war…BIG TIME. As you know, I have been visiting or living in China for over 25 years. And based on that extensive knowledge, I can see the effects on the economy.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SaxxonWoods.

[gaijin]

great post.

[FLT-bird]

They have an absolutely massive real estate/debt bubble. It WILL burst sooner or later. They always do. Think ghost cities. Research just what % of apartments in China sit empty. If you think our level of debt is bad, China’s is 2.5 times what ours is. When it bursts, it is going to be extremely painful for them.

[existentially_kuffer]

>>>China’s is 2.5 times what ours is. When it bursts, it is going to be extremely painful for them.

Is this pure socialism at its best? Hey Bernie!!

[House Atreides]

The concept of Global Government is European. None of the Asian/Pacific rim nations or populations wants global governance.
*****************************************
IMHO, China, long term, wants global subservience and submission — TO CHINA.

[AdmSmith]

This might indicate something: The graph below shows an index of Chinese Internet searches for the word “layoff.” Notice where it is now compared to 2008 and other recent economic slowdowns.

source:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/bull-in-the-china-shop

[vannrox]

I read the article. I hold different opinions. Some quick notes...

[1] WOFE have been around for some time. I set my first up in 2011. The recent changes made to the program are slight.

[2] CNY is as it always has been. Most factories close down for a whole month. There is nothing new in this.

[3] Tariffs are "hurting" China. Really? Maybe so, but none of my factories are slowing down, and the orders are still coming forth. So, while this might be accurate from the point of view of the author, it is not what I am seeing.

That being said. Trump is proceeding just as he must, and in the end the USA will end up with a great trade deal.

The one thing that I must caution EVERYONE is this; It's fun to pick and make fun of others. It's great to show evidence of this or that. But the end game is always the proof in the pudding.

[1] Will America be able to trade with advantage?
[2] Will China be a friend of a foe?

I argue that in both cases that the result will be in the favor of a Trump-led USA. Go MAGA!

I also argue that you will not see this by trying to look for proof. It will be sitting at you and staring you in the face. You don't need a "blue ribbon" committee to prove that our taxes are too high. You can see this when you open your wallet to buy a Whopper meal with cheese.

Here are my impressions of China taken two weeks ago. Obviously, mine differ substantially from this article.

[vannrox]

This might indicate something: The graph below shows an index of Chinese Internet searches for the word “layoff.” Notice where it is now compared to 2008 and other recent economic slowdowns.

---

LOL. The Chinese do not have “layoffs” like they have in the States. You are bound by contract. If there isn’t any work, the company is obligated to keep you on as “overhead” until the end of your contract.

[AdmSmith]

@vannrox: LOL. The Chinese do not have “layoffs” like they have in the States. You are bound by contract. If there isn’t any work, the company is obligated to keep you on as “overhead” until the end of your contract.

Not according to 环球时报 (that I assume you know is published by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China):

Mass layoffs in Chinese internet companies hint at sector’s growth toward quality and efficiency
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1133399.shtml

A friendly advise: If you want to spread false statements do not write things that can be investigated.

[vannrox]

Well, then I am wrong. I’ll have to check with my attorney.

What I do know is that I am contractually obligated to pay my employees through the duration of their contract. Upon completion of their contract, I have to pay them one months salary for every year of employment if they choose to leave my employ.

In my over 15 years of living in China, I have never met or heard of anyone being laidoff. I guess that I am out of the mainstream in that regard. What about the people that you know? What are their stories of being laidoff. Are they like getting laidoff in the USA?

I’d ask someone, but I don’t know any who was ever laid off. I do know a few that were let go. But that doesn’t really count.

I think it is a terrible thing to be laid off. I, myself have been under this situation many, many times in the past. It really sucked. That’s one of the reasons why I like the Chinese system of contracts. If the company breaks the contract, then you need to go through arbitration to resolve things.

I’ve been thinking about that chart that you posted. At first glance I assumed that they were using the search engines about themselves, but maybe they were researching about the state of affairs in other nations. Who knows?

As in all cases, I cannot tell you what official policy is out of Beijing. All that I can relate is the day to day working level policies that are practiced in the Southern industrial heartland. For everyone, I hope that everything gets resolved soon.

I have every confidence in Trump and what will happen, though on the street-level it’s not nearly as dramatic as everyone wants to believe. The Chinese are a pretty resilient people. Don’t ya know.

[AdmSmith]

Perhaps you should ask your attorney to read this:
https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/how-to-lay-off-employee-in-a-legal-way-china-6110

Briefing: Huawei to lay off employees and cut costs as economy slows
https://technode.com/2019/01/21/huawei-lay-off-employees/

SCMP 13FEB2019:

With the Chinese economy slowing, concern has increased among Chinese policymakers about the outlook for employment, since ensuring a sufficient number of new jobs is seen as a necessary ingredient in maintaining social stability in the country.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2185789/chinas-grey-economy-losing-ability-be-employment-backstop-laid