Poll: Democrats Lead in 'Intensity' But Fall Short of House Takeover

PJ Media ^ | Aprin 16, 2018 | Rick Moran

[ethom]

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll casts a more realistic light on Democrats' chances. The numbers that would signal a blue wave just aren't there. And against all odds, the president's approval numbers are as high now as they have been at any time since he was inaugurated.

In the NBC poll, Democrats enjoy a 7-point advantage in congressional preference, with 47 percent of voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, and with 40 percent preferring a GOP-controlled Congress.

That’s down from the Democrats’ 10-point edge in March, 50 percent to 40 percent, although the change is well within the poll’s margin of error.

In past wave cycles for Democrats — in 2006 and 2008 — the NBC/WSJ poll typically found Democrats with a solid double-digit lead in congressional preference.

But the current poll shows Democrats with a significant advantage in enthusiasm, with 66 percent of Democrats expressing a high level of interest (either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale) in November’s elections, versus 49 percent for Republicans.

Bottom line: Democrats are angry and angry people vote. Unless the GOP has a "get out the vote" program that exceeds anything previously seen, they are going to be in trouble.

But history also holds a cautionary tale for Democrats. Parts of their coalition, especially the young, minorities, and single women, may tell pollsters they are all fired up to vote and then fail to show up on election day. This has happened more than once and may be one of the things that will save the GOP from defeat.

The wild card is Trump himself, who, thanks to a booming economy, is enjoying his best approval numbers in a while.

[Conserv]

and that NBC poll interviewed 900 adults...

not registered voters and certainly not likely voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

I still say we easily keep the House.

[outofsalt]

My personal, “intensity” for the GOP is at historical lows.
There will be no blue wave but, all conservatives have gotten from the establishment RINO’s has been a red herring.

[TallahasseeConservative]

Democrats are pissed off, but the Democrats that are really pissed off already live in safe Dem districts. So the D will win with 80-90% of vote, instead of 60-70%. BFD.

[vette6387]

“My personal, “intensity” for the GOP is at historical lows.”

Yeah, it was like having an enema, listening to Karl “the turd blossom” Rove talking about how “productive and principled” Paul Ryno has been as Speaker.
And speaking of enemas, we need to give the US Senate a big one!

[polymuser]

The shrill whining of prograts these days is souring in the ears of many everyday Americans. People are seeing the left for what it is in increasing numbers and they now have Trump’s good results in their wallets, so I believe support is trending upward for Republicans.

[tellw]

Democrats still have the problem of geographic overconcentration on the coasts.

[Conserv]

Wonder if it was Schmucky Todd himself who decided to only poll adults?

After the 2016 election, the Washington Post listed the NBC/Survey Monkey polls as the least accurate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/05/which-was-the-most-accurate-national-poll-in-the-2016-presidential-election/?utm_term=.7a79ecee9998

[Steely Tom]

I remember years ago, when Rush talked about how as a young talk show host he discovered that if you discussed the topic of ESP, or anything having to do with psychic phenomena, you would "light up the board" with numerous callers, each of whom was passionately interested in the subject, but other than that subgroup, no one was listening.

That's what the MSM-Democrats are buying into.

They seem to believe that if they can just turn up their emotional intensity "past eleven," to a white-hot insane rage, that somehow the atoms and molecules of the fabric of reality will rearrange themselves and the outcome of the election will be undone and Trump will vanish.

[AppyPappy]

Fake News. They are trying to convince Dem voters that they won’t win unless they vote. This appears to be a Dem sweep.

[Angels27]

Democrats are always pissed off. It’s a lifestyle requirement for every liberal. When Democrats were in full control 2009-2011, liberals were on the lookout for somwthing to be pissed off about.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

Hmmm....Rush said the RAT advantage was 3 or 4 points, not seven.

[ethom]

could be within the margin for error.

[Conserv]

Quinnipiac’s recent poll has it at dems +3

ABC/Washington Post recent poll has it a dems +4

Rasmussen has it at dems +5

[italianquaker]

Quietvas it is kept by the chicken littles, President Trump hit 51pct in ras poll, omg so unpopular

[Conserv]

Exactly.

Even dnc stooge Larry Sabato has said that the dems need to be north of +6 in order to have any realistic chance of winning the House back.

[RonnG]

Intensity is overated because no matter how intense a Democrat is, he can only vote once

[DaveA37]

“NBC/Wall Street Journal poll casts a more realistic light on Democrats’ chances”.......

Now exactly what would readers expect that “poll” might reflect? Look who provided the information. In my early journalism days, the rule was to word the poll questions to reflect the answers and numbers you want (Poll taking 101)

[Revolutionary]

Republicans require far less intensity to get their butt out to vote than the dems.
The dems are going to have to pull the lever several times to vote for the ones that don’t show up.

[Revolutionary]

ABC/WP poll only had 25% Republicans in it. Significant dem oversampling (5-10%) and independent oversampling. Still only came up with dems +4. A really bad sign for the dems. When the deep state indictments start coming down, the Republican base will be fired up and ready to vote.