‘North Korea is a time bomb’: government advisers urge China to prepare for war

SCMP ^ | 16 December, 2017 | Wendy Wu

[TigerLikesRooster]

‘North Korea is a time bomb’: government advisers urge China to prepare for war

The risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula is the highest its been in decades and Beijing must mobilise resources for fallout, observers say

PUBLISHED : Saturday, 16 December, 2017, 10:03pm UPDATED : Saturday, 16 December, 2017, 11:26pm

China must be ready for a war on the Korean peninsula, with the risk of conflict higher than ever before, Chinese government advisers and a retired senior military officer warned on Saturday.

Beijing, once seen as Pyongyang’s key ally with sway over its neighbour, was losing control of the situation, they warned.

“Conditions on the peninsula now make for the biggest risk of a war in decades,” said Renmin University international relations professor Shi Yinhong, who also advises the State Council, China’s cabinet.

Shi said US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un were locked in a vicious cycle of threats and it was already too late for China to avert it. At best, Beijing could stall a full-blown conflict.

“North Korea is a time bomb. We can only delay the explosion, hoping that by delaying it, a time will come to remove the detonator,” Shi said on the sidelines of a Beijing conference on the crisis.

Addressing the conference, Wang Hongguang, former deputy commander of the Nanjing Military Region, warned that war could break out on the Korean peninsula at any time from now on until March when South Korea and the United States held annual military drills.

“It is a highly dangerous period,” Wang said. “Northeast China should mobilise defences for war.”

[TigerLikesRooster]

“No matter whether there is war or peace, regretfully, China has no control, dominance or even a voice on the issue,” he said.

A lie to deflect their deep involvement in abetting N. Korea's behaviors. They do have many cards to play to rein on N. Korea. But they would rather sidestep their responsibility and let others bleed to clean up the mess they created. Just like N. Korea, they are trying to be cute with their scheme, pushing the envelop ever further. It could cost them dearly down the road. For now, they are giggling on the sideline and excited to see their little plan doing its magic (in their view.)

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[DIRTYSECRET]

Mr. Trump is turning up the heat. It could solve itself. If no American lives are spent will it reassure us in 2020?

[JP1201]

War on the KP has always been inevitable.

Hopefully Trump will let Mattis do his job and will sign off on his war plan.

[Paladin2]

NORKS, Red Chinese and the Rooskies are still highly contaminated with Communism.

[eaglegso]

No it won’t! South Korea will be hit if we attack, and Trump will be blamed for those casualties/deaths, and the media will make it all his fault! And what if there are any US lives spent? It’s a no win situation either way! So let him blow up his mountains and spend his missles!

If we attack North Korea, it doesn’t ensure a 2020 win at all! But anyhoo!

[TigerLikesRooster]

For it to solve itself, there should be clear catastrophic threat to their interest. This can not be done without the will to go all the way if it comes to that. To telegraph to the world we really do not want to do it if we can only serve to confirm their current belief that they can prevail.

Looking 'reasonable' does not really pay dividend. It has been the case in Korean Peninsula for decades. They have budged a bit only when they sense that U.S. can really go entire distance. It may sound paradoxical but is true. It is the classic case of Roman maxim, "If you want peace, prepare for war."

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

You know what really puzzles me? The NK generals and military.

What is stopping them from simply getting up and grabbing Kim John Un and taking over the country? Are these generals that brainwashed? Hell, are they even generals?

I mean, one has to think that their military is simply a huge Potemkin village.

Watch the movie "The Interview." Yeah, I know that POS Seth Rogen stars in it, but the movie is excellent and it's hilarious. It accurately depicts NK dead-on.

[noiseman]

”No it won’t! South Korea will be hit if we attack, and Trump will be blamed for those casualties/deaths, and the media will make it all his fault! And what if there are any US lives spent? It’s a no win situation either way.”

So what’s your solution? It’s fine to fret over the potential collateral damage and follow-on blame, but that’s forgetting that once NK achieves the few remaining technical milestones necessary to threaten us, every U.S. city will forever be held hostage and the consequences of even one nuclear warhead hitting one American city would be far worse than a conventional war half a world away.

You can’t hand wring about likely necessary measures without proposing a viable alternative, unless you just want to pretend everything is fine to avoid having to deal with it.

[TigerLikesRooster]

N. Korean system is geared toward zealously spying over people, especially gathering of people among their elites. It severely cut down the chance of coup plotting. After all, They can't do it alone. Have to meet like-minded people to organize their acts.

Their resistance is likely to be passive. When bombs fall down and chaos erupts, such surveillance mechanism temporarily breaks down, then they can split and go their way to find safety somewhere instead of pointlessly dying for the current leader who is not particularly lovable.

[roadcat]

They do have many cards to play to rein on N. Korea. But they would rather sidestep their responsibility and let others bleed to clean up the mess they created.

China does have some say over North Korea. Tens of thousands of North Koreans work as slave workers in China, where the bulk of their earnings go the the NK regime. Cheap labor for China, big income for the NK regime. President Trump signed a law in August forbidding U.S. products from being made by North Korean workers, but the reality is that some goods coming to the U.S.A. from China are made by North Korean workers there. Cheap food, clothes and other Chinese products are cheap partly because of the imported North Korean workers.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Then there is their oil supply to N. Korea. They have not even try to cut it down by half for extended period of time.

That will drive home the message to Pyongyang elite that they can no longer count on China's help or acquiescence, forcing them to reevaluate their future.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Correction: They have not even (try)[tried]

[Yosemitest]

"In a meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping said war on the peninsula was not acceptable."

Whether he accepts it or not, WAR IS COMING TO NORTH KOREA, and soon ! ! !

[TigerLikesRooster]

If Xi is determined to get in the way, his vision of grand Chinese empire will also wither.

[Yosemitest]

Xi his using North Korea as a puppet, and poking us with North Korea as a "Thorn in our side" .
Don't trust China, because they have their own national interest, oil in the Southwestern Pacific, and we are against their island grabbing.

[Crucial]

China, Russia and the United States together could dispatch North Korea very quickly. The problem is the could fire off a nuke at Japan or somewhere else.

[Crucial]

And after North Korea is defeated is it to be carved up by the victors?

[TigerLikesRooster]

I think that would be the case initially. What will happen later would be another political problem to solve which Korea and all big powers want to have a say in it. There would be several possibilities.

[bitt]

p