Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II

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[alancarp]

The slower a storm is moving, the more there's a chance for other influences in the weather to re-steer it. Katina was going 7mph in your chart above. Irma has been going 12-14.

Add to that: None of the major models show anything like that. The Euro and the UKMet especially have been on target all along.

So is there a 0% chance that Irma does something weird? No, but those odds are probably no more than 1-2%.

So y'all stop cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.

[maggief]

[Dustoff45]

Irma's going that way,

Doing refresh on the predicted paths, and the path just jumped 20-25 miles to the west.

It really looks like Irma is determined to pay a visit to Havana!

[maggief]

Key West radar:

https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/USFL0244:1:US

[Baldwin77]

I was replying to this:

Oh no

All those retirees

And Sanibel/Captiva

Oh no

1,874 posted on 9/9/2017, 2:08:32 AM by combat_boots

[exit82]

Not the same guy who did the Mandela funeral, I hope! ;)

[dfwgator]

I hope it levels the Che Guevara Museum in Santa Clara.

[alancarp]

Euro model shows re-intensification prior to landfall near Port Charlotte Sun PM. (H/T Joe Bastardi tweet)

[combat_boots]

I was being serious, though. My mother and father were snowbirds down that way.

[xzins]

Irma is still tracking west with no northerly turn as of an hour ago

[alancarp]

@RyanMaue: "Eastern Gulf of Mexico ocean temperatures (SST) are bath water just like Straits of Florida. Some vertical shear won't overcome this fuel."

[dfwgator]

Looking more and more that Miami and Fort Lauderdale will be spared. We should know by this afternoon.

[Baldwin77]

The Euro track is the heavy black line on Sept. 4th. They have not been right all along.:

[fatima]

New video: another intense squall well ahead of Hurricane #Irma over the Florida Keys @breakingweather pic.twitter.com/A292jZ3Yjv— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) September 9, 2017

[Baldwin77]

Sorry, misunderstanding. My home is on the water in St. Pete,- I’m edgy !!!

[KC Burke]

Are you evacuated?

If you are “on the water” you are probably in a surge zone.

[boycott]

I agree that it is unlikely to go very far off the projected path. But I will tell you that there is a hell of a lot of difference if it goes into Miami or Tampa. Weren’t they saying Miami yesterday morning? There’s also a lot of difference if you live in Destin and it goes in there instead of Naples. So my point stands.

I am not “cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.” What I stated is truth. You could pick most hurricanes over the last 30 years and you would find that I am correct. My evacuation plans for both Katrina and Ivan were based on the experts. I wish I had done the opposite in both cases.

Lighten up. I don’t get off in confusing people. It’s just a discussion board. I am west of the cone and I will still be keeping an eye on it regardless of what the “experts” say.

[NonValueAdded]

The EGR2 model track has Irma going to visit the Liebrary. Will they have to evacuate the double-wide?

[combat_boots]

OH!

S’OK.

I work with people who live in FL. They’re battening down the hatches, too, talking about it just yesterday. One guy did say it would be a good day to drop by Disney World, however.

Apparently, there is a guy on Facebook, Denis Phillips, who isn’t fearmongering badly the way the national people are.

Many’s the fond memory I have of going to FL. My first trip with my folks went to Sarasota. Loved it.

[nfldgirl]

Darn if I can make heads or tails of that. Glad somebody can!