Posted on 08/21/2017 4:33:12 AM PDT by Enlightened1
Ron Paul's sell-off prediction just got more severe.
The former Republican Congressman from Texas believes escalating dysfunction in Washington will create even more pain for Wall Street.
"A 50 percent pullback is conceivable," Paul said on "Futures Now" recently. "I don't believe it's ten years off. I don't even believe it's a year off. "
According to his calculations, it would cut the S&P 500 Index in half, to 1212, and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average would collapse to 10,837.
Paul noted that there's a lot of chaos in Washington right now, with an "unpredictable president" and those who are inclined to "tear him apart" but if the market takes that big of a tumble, he doesn't see it as Trump's fault.
"It's all man-made. It's not the fault of Donald Trump in the last week. If the market crashes tomorrow and we have a great depression, he didn't do it in six months. It took more like six or ten years to cause all these problems that we're facing," he said.
What's more, it would come at the expense of businesses who are counting on reforms such as tax cuts and fewer regulations, according to Paul.
Paul, who is also known for his presidential runs, originally made his case for a somewhat more benign 25 percent downturn on June 29 on "Futures Now." He argued Wall Street is overestimating the strength of the economy, and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long. He said the situation for stocks could turn ugly as soon as October.
Stocks will try to bounce back on Monday from multiple losing weeks in a row. The Nasdaq just saw its fourth consecutive week of losses. Meanwhile, the Dow & S&P 500's losing streak now sits at two weeks.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
I don’t see it happening until people start walking away from their school loans en masse.
Everything’s POSSIBLE. But let’s not kid ourselves here Mr. Paul. You’ve been wrong since Dow 5000.
I was watching the TV last week and a commercial for SILVER came on, talking about how it could reach $200 per ounce. We hit $110 THIRTY SEVEN YEARS AGO. It’s now $17!!
It hit $41 in 2011.
How these companies peddling these commercials can live with themselves is beyond me. I feel bad enough when I take a 15% loss for a client.
Yeah, and if you check, they only run the TV ads when sliver is DOWN in the market.
Stocks are a bit inflated by virtue of the fed holding interest rates low. However, energy is a player in every industry, and it is at legitimate lows holding all commodities in check. This will hold interest in check, which will keep any stock downturn in check.
I don’t expect a depression type downturn in stocks as they find more real level. Ten percent maybe except for those stocks that are ridiculously overbid, auction house style, through good PR, sentimentality, or “expert consensus”. In those type stocks it makes sense to consider earnings ratios.
“Yeah, and if you check, they only run the TV ads when sliver is DOWN in the market.”
Not true, when the silver and gold prices are rallying the commercials come out in droves, particularly on the radio. At $40 silver 6 years ago you couldn’t turn the radio dial fast enough!
What does change is the rationale mentioned in the commercials. At these prices you normally here something like “why I keep 5% of my money in . . .”. When the metal is near the top of the move you here “. . . is up ?% so far this year, experts think it could hit . . . “
“And if you call now, I have a second cousin who will sell you shiny GOLD...”
I’m only talking about of the daily up/downs.
He’s still alive? Thought he dehydrated himself to death.
Yup.
For the past 8 years, people from Paul to Glenn Beck insisted that the DOW would “collapse” and that we should have a bucket of gold and water filters in our closets.
The only thing that would cause a market collapse of that magnitude is if the left is successful in its coup against Trump or, heaven forbid, Trump is assassinated. Business knows that Trump is on its side but the CEO’s are too gutless to stand beside him lest they be ostracized from the New York and Washington cocktail party set. If Trump is gone business will have a meltdown.
A water filter is a good idea for many people. I’ve been using one for 20 years and plain tap water is now undrinkable for me.
I hear those lousy b@$t@rds talk about how silver is selling below the cost of production, , how big name banks and China “suddenly” bought mass quantities of gold, and doing those fake “interview” commercials and I want to scream at my radio.
Whatever one can think of is conceivable, hello, earth to Paul...
The way school loans are written, the only "escape" from them is death. The "collateral" the bank holds is the person who took out the loan. Basically, a student loan is a sort of self-imposed indentured servitude.
As long as silver and gold can be bought with paper and ink I’m not too worried. Companies saying the dollar is doomed, but what does it take to buy their baubles? Yep. Dollars.
It’s kind of like people warning me for 50 years that this monstrous overhanging tree limb is going to ruin me if I don’t get it taken care of.
And yet it never happened.
Just because I’ve been lucky so far doesn’t mean they were (are) wrong.
The situation with debt, fiat money, asset valuation, wealth redistribution, entitlements - IS precarious! Ron Paul is right.
Who knew that we the people would be so stupid or so powerless that we would allow the powers-that-be to continue their plunder with this massive check kiting scheme?
I have always thought Ron Paul’s predictions were correct, and I still believe the shit has to hit the fan.
I admit it hasn’t happened - but still - you better own something real, because there is going to be a massive correction.
And the tree will eventually crush my house.
I don’t like Ron Paul in many ways.
But I sort of agree with him.
The Schiller P/E ratio is pretty accurate at demonstrating a high average P/E ratio’s relationship to over valued markets.
I would have preferred that the markets took the valuation gains from November to February as already pricing in expected better average revenue growth of companies, and then as that materialized NOT dumped even more equity value growth onto that, but only saw that revenue growth as meeting already priced in expectations.
I think we again, like in the tech bubble, are at values where expectations are over valuing too many equities, raising the average P/E ratio to a bubble area that history suggests will come down.
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