Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

2018 Midterms: The Democrats Are About To Crash Into Their Own Geographic Wall
Townhall.com ^ | August 7, 2017 | Matt Vespa

Posted on 08/08/2017 4:58:20 AM PDT by Kaslin

The Democratic Party is regional. It’s mostly confined to the urban areas and states that touch salt water. That spells certain doom for a healthy party that’s incapable of winning rural areas. It’s not impossible. They’ve done it before, though it was before the toxic ethos of political correctness and identity politics were thrown into the mix. Now, the party’s hard left turn on immigration and abortion is starting to make moderate to right-leaning Democrats, ones who can win in these regions, difficult to find, let alone support. To complicate matters, there are still healthy numbers of Democrats who think that Hillary Clinton won the election, and that the Russians, FBI, media, and the Democratic National Committee were all part of some nutjob conspiracy to kill her presidential ambitions. There’s even more commentaries about not reaching out to Trump voters (i.e. white working class voters) because they’re not needed to win elections. They’ve learned nothing.

Democrats doled out a rehashed version of Clinton’s 2016 agenda that failed to win over voters, they have no leader, the national party can’t raise money, petty squabbles over abortion and health care could boil over into civil war between the progressive and establishment wings, and they’re about to hit their own geographic wall. Again, it goes without saying, being huddled around urban areas is not the best way to win elections, especially when it comes to congressional elections. The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman had more:

Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats.

[…]

In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York — states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states — think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia — that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations.

[…]

In 2016, Trump lost the national popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, but Republicans won the median House seat by 3.4 points and the median Senate seat by 3.6 points — that’s the widest Senate gap in at least a century and tied with 2012 for the widest House disparity in the last half-century. That doesn’t mean Democrats can’t win the House and Senate back — they won control of both chambers in 2006 despite a Republican-bias that year, for example — but they’re starting from a truly historic geographic disadvantage, even with the political wind at their back.

[…]

Today, Republicans don’t even need to win any “swing states” to win a Senate majority: 52 seats are in states where the 2016 presidential margin was at least 5 percentage points more Republican than the national outcome. By contrast, there are just 28 seats in states where the margin was at least 5 points more Democratic, and only 20 seats in swing states.

[…]

In 2010, when Democrats passed the health care law Republicans are now seeking to repeal, they needed “yes” votes from all 60 of their senators, including 13 from states that then-President Barack Obama had lost in 2008. What did it take for the party to be able to obtain 60 seats? The Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina and a stock market crash, which generated a huge backlash against President George W. Bush and Republicans in 2008.

Today, it would take even more cataclysmic events under GOP rule to propel Democrats to a supermajority over the next six years. (Of course, those events sometimes happen, particularly given a long enough time frame.) Meanwhile, all Republicans would need to obtain 60 seats would be to win every seat in the 30 states that Trump won — no Clinton states needed.

Wasserman added that even if a Democrat wins in 2020, the Senate majority could be solidly Republican, making for any possible changes to institutions, like the Supreme Court, all but impossible for liberals. Yet, what about the health care aspect of this debate? The individual mandate is unpopular, but millions of people are enrolled in Obamacare. The hubbub over possible Medicaid cuts frightened some moderate GOP senators and caused heartburn within the Senate GOP caucus. You all know this fight: one side (the Democrats) will be painted as protecting people, while the other (the GOP) will be seen as heartless ghouls taking people’s health care away. In other words, we’re taking away people’s stuff. There’s no amount of public relations work, or wizards in this field, that can polish that and turn it into a winning message. None. Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics analyzed how the health care debate could impact the 2018 Senate races, which are insanely biased against the Democrats. He placed the races into three tiers. One block has states where Trump’s approval is below the national average. The second is where Trump is slightly above that average, and the third where the president has high approval ratings (i.e. around 50 percent or more). Trende noted that in most of the scenarios he’s run, the GOP picks up seats—though it all depends on whether Trump can rebound to 40 percent approval (he’s below that right now) or better by the time we get into the thick of midterm season:

If we put this together, it is consistent with the interactive Senate tool David Byler and I developed earlier this year. If you simulate the election with Trump’s job approval around 40 percent, the most likely result is that Republicans hold steady or lose a seat, although they gain seats in around a quarter of the scenarios.  Whether Republicans end up on the upside of the mean (from their perspective) or the downside probably depends on the extent to which Democratic senators like Tester, Heitkamp and Manchin can maintain their semi-independent brands. The politics of health-care reform probably complicate this.

While a president’s approval rating has historically been a gauge for how his party would do in the midterms if they control Congress, we could see an event where Trump could be relatively unpopular but the Republicans still retain their majority--with an increased Senate majority. 


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018elections; demonrats; presidenttrump; republicans; ruralamerica; senatedemonrats; senaterepublicans; urbancities
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-26 next last

1 posted on 08/08/2017 4:58:20 AM PDT by Kaslin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: All
Republicans have total control of 26 states...gov, and both houses.

Democrats have control of the legislative and executive in a puny six states.

Population of Dem-controlled states: 50,190,213
Population of GOP-controlled states: 164,139,104

(Excerpt) Read more at atr.org ...


2 posted on 08/08/2017 5:01:43 AM PDT by Liz (Four boxes to defend liberty: soap, ballot, jury and ammo; used in that order.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

That’s why they’re so adamant about policies promoting population relocation to urban centers.


3 posted on 08/08/2017 5:05:27 AM PDT by ctdonath2 (It's not "white privilege", it's "Puritan work ethic". Behavior begets consequences.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

2017 has been a year of bad publicity for President Trump, regarding Russia and other assorted “scandals”. But that whole storyline has come to nothing and is now quite boring.

As 2018 gets going, I suspect that AG Sessions will be actively prosecuting — and sending to jail — some very corrupt Democrats. The idea that Seth Rich was murdered by the DNC will become commonplace, and Hillary’s presidential campaign will be thoroughly examined and found shady.

Just in time for Nov 2018. People will choose wisely.


4 posted on 08/08/2017 5:06:10 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Islam: You have to just love a "religion" based on rape and sex slavery.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

When the leading voices of your party is Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters, you know they are in a world of hurt.


5 posted on 08/08/2017 5:11:58 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (You for avoid reality, but you can't avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hotlanta Mike

The deserve to be in a world of hurt for voting for these 2 creatures.


6 posted on 08/08/2017 5:14:54 AM PDT by Kaslin (Civilibus nati sunt; sunt excernitur - Politicians are not born; they are excreted. (Cicero)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Yet most Republicans want to be just like them.


7 posted on 08/08/2017 5:19:44 AM PDT by mindburglar (I'm sorry, can you spell that?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

[Now, the party’s hard left turn on immigration and abortion is starting to make moderate to right-leaning Democrats, ones who can win in these regions, difficult to find, let alone support. ]

Trump gave them another option to vote for and masterfully won over the rustbelt among other rural areas to form a somewhat bipartisan coalition of the working class.

Then you have the Democrats in the GOP. They were all for the “big tent” until it elected Trump on them.


8 posted on 08/08/2017 5:20:18 AM PDT by headstamp 2 (Ignorance is reparable, stupid is forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hotlanta Mike

“When the leading voices of your party is Elizabeth Warren and Maxine Waters, you know they are in a world of hurt.”

Abso-frickin-lutely.


9 posted on 08/08/2017 5:21:12 AM PDT by simpson96
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
Flake and Heller could lose reelection bids.

What is more relevant is just what message are Republicans planning to run on? Obamacare? Taxes? Russia? Good luck with that.

10 posted on 08/08/2017 5:21:58 AM PDT by Rational Thought
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Ratwall/SWAMPCREATURE control ALERT! C’mon 2018.


11 posted on 08/08/2017 5:22:20 AM PDT by PGalt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

This all assumes voters like me vote for Republicans in the next couple of elections.

My Senate vote is sure going third party this time.


12 posted on 08/08/2017 5:24:11 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: PeteB570

Why vote Republican at all?


13 posted on 08/08/2017 5:28:09 AM PDT by caver
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: caver
Why vote Republican at all?

To annoy the media.

14 posted on 08/08/2017 5:29:08 AM PDT by Cincinatus (Omnia relinquit servare Rempublicam)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Wasserman added that even if a Democrat wins in 2020, the Senate majority could be solidly Republican, making for any possible changes to institutions, like the Supreme Court, all but impossible for liberals.


The left has poison the landscape with their take no prisoner approach. It has taken years for conservatives to begin using the same tactics against the left.

What they are doing to President Trump is not good for this nation and it really is not good for the Democrat party. The 24/7 campaign of hate against the President and his supporters is slowly building a backlash against the Democrats (and Republics that have refused to defend the President or help in passing his agenda). Perhaps the biggest losers will be the “news media”. They have pretended for a long time that they were “unbias” but now they are not even pretending. The media’s influence is shrinking each day.

Contrary to the left’s view of the average American they are not stupid. They know the difference between when it is raining and someone is p*ssing on their leg.

President Trump does not need big legislation to fix many problems, a couple more conservative Supreme Court Judges, repeal many of the overbearing regulations, allow the use of coal and permit more oil refineries will go a long way to reversing our current path over a cliff.

The border fence is important, but more important is the message that this administration is anti-illegal aliens. The flood tide has not stopped but it has slowed.

The Democrats have put themselves in a box. Their many one issue supporters will NOT allow them to do what it will take to regain the middle. So no, 2018 will not be a good year for them.


15 posted on 08/08/2017 5:31:17 AM PDT by CIB-173RDABN (US out of the UN, UN out of the US)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Liz

“Population of Dem-controlled states: 50,190,213
Population of GOP-controlled states: 164,139,104 “

So that is about 214 mil, where are the other 100 million people (as I thought the US is over 300 Mil)? Did you mean voting population?


16 posted on 08/08/2017 5:31:44 AM PDT by where's_the_Outrage? (Trump the anti politician. About time!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus

“To annoy the media.”

That may be a good reason. The Republicans sure haven’t given me any reason to vote for them.


17 posted on 08/08/2017 5:32:06 AM PDT by caver
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Liz

I will point out this...the Census occurs in 2.5 years. Certain states (blue-dominated, Democrat) are going to lose representation. Certain states (red-dominated, GOP) are going to gain representation. Just off the Census, I would take a guess that four Democratic districts nation-wide....will go in 2022 (if the drawing occurs) or at the latest in 2024 to the GOP.

Long-term, there is a massive decade-long problem brewing here...if you were a strategist for the Democrats.


18 posted on 08/08/2017 5:33:35 AM PDT by pepsionice
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Only half right.
The Democrats are the party of the Urban elites, the government dependent, the crony capitalists, the perverted, and the invading barbarian.
Unfortunately, those seem to be growning demographics.


19 posted on 08/08/2017 5:39:07 AM PDT by Little Ray (Freedom Before Security!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: caver

Why vote Republican at all?

***

To kill the Democrats and hasten the GOP split into Trump conservatives and RINOs.


20 posted on 08/08/2017 5:49:00 AM PDT by Luircin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-26 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson