The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

Oil Price.com ^ | July 10,2017 | By Nick Cunningham

[Hojczyk]

But it is Venezuela that could be the mother of all black swan events. As Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors mentions, Venezuela has already seen the near total breakdown of society, and its oil production of 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) could unravel. It still seems unthinkable at this point, but becoming more likely by the day. Already, Venezuela’s oil production has eroded sharply, falling to 1.96 mb/d as of May 2017, down from 2.375 mb/d in 2015. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s refining industry is in shambles, forcing the country to increasingly import gasoline to avoid fuel shortages.

The street protests in the South American country just marked their 100th day, and show no sign of slowing down.

The oil market is rather depressed and subdued at the moment, but could awaken at moment’s notice if large volumes of oil production are disrupted from some unforeseen event.

[notdownwidems]

OR, it might not.

[The_Media_never_lie]

Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.

[The_Media_never_lie]

Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.

[The_Media_never_lie]

Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.

[TexasGator]

(Always a possibility, but unlikely. Usually a shock like this comes from an unforeseen direction. This is too logical.)

WEST?

[Vince Ferrer]

The US could easily ramp up production. Venezuela does not matter a bit anymore in the international scheme of oil prices.

[The_Media_never_lie]

IMHO, it is too easy to foresee.

What do you mean “west”?

[Buckeye McFrog]

(yawn)....Other producers will see a $20 move in price, and start pumping like there’s no tomorrow.

[TexasGator]

“What do you mean “west”?”

The fourth point of the compass. You had posted N, E and S.

[meatloaf]

In other news a billion bbl field was found off Mexico following privatization of exploration and three months ago the Trump administration approved the completion of the Keystone pipeline. Which means Canadian heavy oil will replace Venezuelan heavy oil which is not suited for many refineries.

[Wuli]

The rest of global production is more than enough to prove this prediction a mythological prediction.

Someone is trying to “report” this to spook the oil futures markets with trades they hope to profit from.

[CedarDave]

The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

Nonsense. There are newly drilled but shutin US wells, many in the Permian Basin that are idle waiting for a price rise. A shut down of Venezuela oil would increase WTI crude to $55 to $65/bbl and bring those wells on line. This $120/bbl speculation is what the future traders love. They see $$ in their pockets.

[Bubba_Leroy]

It would cause a short term jump in oil prices, followed by a jump in production by every other oil producing country, followed by Venezuela eventually resuming production, followed by a crash in oil prices, followed by a leveling off somewhere below current oil prices.

[SkyDancer]

Considering what we have, what the ME produces and the shambles the Venezuelan oil production is in after nationalization they’re really a non-player in the oil game.

[Jeff Chandler]

its oil production of 2 million barrels per day

Could a disruption of 2% cause such a rise?

[Jeff Chandler]

	Country	Oil Production (bbl/day, 2016)[1]
1	Russia	10,551,497
2	Saudi Arabia (OPEC)	10,460,710
3	United States	8,875,817
4	Iraq (OPEC)	4,451,516
5	Iran (OPEC)	3,990,956
6	China	3,980,650
7	Canada	3,662,694
8	United Arab Emirates (OPEC)	3,106,077
9	Kuwait (OPEC)	2,923,825
10	Brazil	2,515,459
11	Venezuela (OPEC)	2,276,967
12	Mexico	2,186,877
13	Nigeria (OPEC)	1,999,885
14	Angola (OPEC)	1,769,615
15	Norway	1,647,975
16	Kazakhstan	1,595,199
17	Qatar (OPEC)	1,522,902
18	Algeria (OPEC)	1,348,361
19	Oman	1,006,841
20	United Kingdom	939,760
21	Colombia	897,784
22	Indonesia	833,667
23	Azerbaijan	833,538
24	India	734,503
25	Malaysia	661,240
26	Ecuador (OPEC)	548,421
27	Argentina	510,560
28	Egypt	494,325
29	Libya (OPEC)	384,686
30	Congo, Republic of the	308,363
31	Vietnam	301,850
32	Australia	289,749
33	Thailand	257,525
34	Sudan and  South Sudan	255,000
35	Turkmenistan	230,779
36	Equatorial Guinea (OPEC)	227,000
37	Gabon (OPEC)	210,820
38	Denmark	140,637
39	Chad	110,156
40	Brunei	109,117
41	Ghana	100,549
42	Cameroon	93,205
43	Pakistan	84,746
44	Romania	77,910
45	Italy	70,675
46	Timor-Leste	60,661
47	Trinidad and Tobago	60,090
48	Bolivia	58,077
49	Papua New Guinea	56,667
50	Uzbekistan	52,913
51.5	Bahrain	50,000
51.5	Cuba	50,000
53	Turkey	49,497
54	Tunisia	48,757
55	Germany	46,839
56	Peru	40,266
57	New Zealand	35,574
58	Ukraine	31,989
59.5	Ivory Coast	30,000
59.5	Syria	30,000
61	Belarus	25,000
62	Mongolia	23,426
63	Albania	22,915
64	Yemen	22,000
65	Poland	20,104
67	Congo, Democratic Republic of the	20,000
67	Philippines	20,000
67	Serbia	20,000
69	Netherlands	18,087
70	Suriname	17,000
71	France	16,418
72	Austria	15,161
73	Myanmar	15,000
74	Hungary	13,833
75	Croatia	13,582
76	Niger	13,000
77	Guatemala	8,977
78	Mauritania	5,000
79	Chile	4,423
80	Bangladesh	4,000
81	Japan	3,918
82	Greece	3,172
83	Spain	2,667
84	Czech Republic	2,333
86	Belize	2,000
86	Lithuania	2,000
86	South Africa	2,000
89	Barbados	1,000
89	Bulgaria	1,000
89	Kyrgyzstan	1,000
91	Georgia	400
92	Israel	390
93	Slovakia	200
94	Taiwan	196
95	Tajikistan	180
96	Morocco	160
97	Jordan	22
98	Slovenia	5

[mythenjoseph]

Exactly ...I read the same article. We are awash in crude all over the planet. venezuala fell because of corruption and a communist form of governance , I feel sorry for the people but they needed to remove the thieves sucking them dry.....no sympathy here.

[Sequoyah101]

Less than that has caused both increases and price collapse.

[Jeff Chandler]

Lasting how long?