Posted on 06/27/2017 6:56:54 PM PDT by plain talk
Sorry, everybody. We’re just not that special. In more than five decades of scanning the heavens, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has found no sign of alien life. Yet now two American astronomers, in the scientific equivalent of a back-of-the-envelope calculation, are estimating that over the course of its history the universe has seen at least half a trillion technologically advanced species.
Remember, 420 billion intelligent civilizations is the “pessimistic” estimate. But sadly—or happily, depending on your view of aliens—it doesn’t make us any less alone.
(Excerpt) Read more at qz.com ...
This analysis assumes 420 billion civilizations have existed over a 2 billion time period. The distances between galaxies is so great (2.5 MLY to Andromeda - nearest galaxy) that civilizations can probably never travel outside their galaxy. Thus the number of civilizations outside the Milky Way may be interesting but almost irrelevant from a practical standpoint.
This translates to about 6 intelligent civilizations over the life of the Milky Way. Even if one assumes they are off by a factor of 1,000 that still means 6,000 civilizations in the Milky Way over billions of years. If one assumes civilizations only last a million years or less before killing themselves off then the chances of simultaneous civilizations existing in the Milky Way is likely rare if nonexistent.
All of this guess work but the underlying concepts make sense to me.
I call BS.
It’s called the “must be” theory of science.
as long as we just have to sit on this planet twiddling our thumbs, yes, people are going to smoke pipes and come up with all kinds of weird ideas. We just need to get our there.
I call BS.
Why?
Pure unadulterated CRAP.
Of the 4.5 million years of earth’s existence, beings on the planet have only been able to transmit a radio signal for around 100 years.
It’s not that advanced civilizations have not existed or will never exist, it is the improbability that they exist at this very moment and could communicate or provide any sign of their existence.
To believe in this stuff, one must eliminate God.
I choose God.
Why is it that sci-fi people are so self loathing? Who is to say we aren’t the first and most advanced carbon based lifeform in the universe?
If you live in California you most certainly live in an (illegal) alien civilization.
that’s racist!
I choose God, too. But why did God create that huge Universe?
“Who is to say we aren’t the first and most advanced carbon based lifeform in the universe?”
No one, but the odds that we are the only advanced life that exists or has ever existed in the universe is rather remote.
Or life on earth could be a unique and singular penomenon.
The only known facts are that there is life here and so far there is no evidence of life anywhere else.
“To believe in this stuff, one must eliminate God.”
No. The exact opposite in true.
If were we ever to communicate with ‘aliens’ they may also know Christ and that would prove the existence of God.
How many civilizations are in existence “ right now”? Does “ right now” have any meaning at all when you factor in relativity?
They wouldn’t want us to know about them. Who would want to risk cultural contamination from a species insane enough to aim nuclear weapons at each other in their own biosphere?
Before we’re we’re married, I told my future wife that I estimated my fortune was $420 billion. After we were wed and she wanted to go shopping, I told her there was no sign of life in my bank account.
“The only known facts are that there is life here...”
How do you propose we prove that fact?
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