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Illinois is Collapsing: It's Coming Everywhere
Market-Ticker ^ | June 10, 2017 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 06/10/2017 1:36:34 PM PDT by Wolfie

Illinois is Collapsing: It's Coming Everywhere

The blame game is in full force, including in Crain's.

Like in a good Agatha Christie mystery, there's a whole train-full (or, in this instance, Capitol-full) of suspects in the case of Who Killed Illinois? Just like on the Orient Express, they're all guilty to one degree or another.

.... Here's who's at the top of my list: Gov. Bruce Rauner and House Speaker Michael Madigan, in that order. Other folks had their hands on the knife, but these two are the ones who really drove it in.

Uh huh.

Sure.

Maybe you can blame Madigan. He's been there long enough. But Rauner? C'mon folks.

It was obvious that Illinois was going to fail as a state before I left in 2000. That was 17 years ago by my count.

Why?

Impossible promises made to public unions, for one. And that's not a small one either. Suburban school districts that were driving property taxes through the roof (they're doubled since I left, incidentally, by my count) and then the general pension promises on top of that.

For those who continue to say "but it's a contractual obligation" or even "it's protected by the State Constitution" I reply thus: A contract to do an impossible thing is not a contract at all.

You cannot enforce a "contract" you make with me where I am to jump over the Empire State Building unassisted. Why? Because the act contemplated is impossible.

Similarly, a promise to pay an exponentially increasing amount where the exponent is larger than the tax base growth rate is also impossible. That's math, and it makes any such promise void.

The longer the people of Illinois fail to demand that all of the medical providers in the state who are and do conspire to drive up and fix prices, refuse to quote a price before a procedure is done and engage in other similar acts, all of which I remind you appear to be illegal on their face under 15 USC, face indictment and prosecution the further down the hole the state will go.

The longer the people of Illinois refuse to demand that all public pension promises that were made with knowledge that the "growth rates" promised and assumed exceeded the historical or any rationally-arguable future growth in the tax base be declared void due to fraud at the time of the agreement the further down the hole the state will go.

You can try to enforce payment of said pensions but you can't make blood run out of a stone. If there is no money, there is no money. If you don't pay the teachers, police and firefighters who are on the job now because you take all the cash and give it to the pensioners the current employees will not show up as nobody in their right mind works without being paid.

15 minutes later the entire Chicagoland area is overrun with gangs and burned to ash.

Go ahead folks, keep pretending. It won't work because it can't, but denial of mathematics is something that politicians are exceedingly good at. I left the state in no small part because I saw it coming, it was mathematically inevitable and utterly nobody would do anything but scream "but you made a contract" when I brought up the fact that at the time the promise was made the people negotiating it on both sides of the table knew full well that it was mathematically impossible for what they "negotiated" to happen.

Watch and learn, because this same dynamic is coming to the rest of the nation -- and in Washington DC, driven by Medicare and Medicaid where exactly the same dynamic, driven by the same medical scam, has been unfolding for the last 30 years.


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: denninger; finance; illinois; pensions; ticker
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To: raybbr

And New Jersey.
The Democrats in Trenton have tried to block Christie at every turn and are. Now running Corzine 2.0...


41 posted on 06/10/2017 3:44:28 PM PDT by Rumplemeyer (The GOP should stand its ground - and fix Bayonets)
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To: mia

If you ask me, Connecticut is the sorriest state in the Union.


42 posted on 06/10/2017 3:47:16 PM PDT by wjcsux (The hyperventilating of the left means we are winning! (Tagline courtesy of Laz.))
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To: Daffynition

Welcome to Maryland: bring your wallet.


43 posted on 06/10/2017 4:15:20 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (April 2006 Message from Dan http://www.dansimmons.com/news/message/2006_04.htm)
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To: PeterPrinciple

Not Rauener..he’s trying his damndest. He is an anti Trump prick but he can’t make any headway as long as Chicago exists.I live in illanoy.


44 posted on 06/10/2017 4:37:38 PM PDT by Bonemaker
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To: raybbr

“This could have been written about CT as well”

Also California. It’s amazing how many people here really believe Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsome have the state really booming. They are ignoring all the signs: The housing bubble is back. Homes are way over priced again and people are taking out equity to by boats, motor homes, etc. Businesses are still leaving the state in droves. Small businesses are failing in large numbers here (the small business I was working for had to fold up in February) and business start ups are at an all time low because no one can afford the taxes and fees. The only real stable industry here is the wine business because the climate is so perfect.

California is on the verge of collapse. Wait until Moonbeam II’s new gas tax and registration fees kick in. People are going to suffer (and rightfully so, Brown has an 75% approval rating). Fortunately there is no Republican in sight to blame. Every state wide office is held by a Democrat and Democrats have super majorities in the state senate and assembly.


45 posted on 06/10/2017 4:49:44 PM PDT by Angels27
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To: Wolfie

This is why I spend as many weekends as possible working the reloading press.

L


46 posted on 06/10/2017 4:59:24 PM PDT by Lurker (America burned the witch.)
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To: Wolfie

The University of Illinois Springfield professors/ teachers went on strike right before finals at the end of the school year.


47 posted on 06/10/2017 5:08:41 PM PDT by TomHarkinIsNotFromIowa (Just so you know, We're ashamed the President of the United States is from Kenya.)
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To: Wolfie

Make the leftist pensioners go door-to-door and demand that their neighbors give them money and see what happens.


48 posted on 06/10/2017 5:09:44 PM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: Wolfie

There 12+ major construction projects in the Loop. Most are high rise condos, fifty stories and higher. If you count McCormick square [South of 12th Street] - there are 25 projects. Not sure who is moving in or why they want to live in Chicago, but construction is booming.


49 posted on 06/10/2017 5:16:33 PM PDT by EC Washington
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To: TomHarkinIsNotFromIowa

The same ones who took a few days off in November.


50 posted on 06/10/2017 5:20:29 PM PDT by TomHarkinIsNotFromIowa (Just so you know, We're ashamed the President of the United States was from Kenya.)
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To: raybbr

I thought California would be the first to go.


51 posted on 06/10/2017 5:39:45 PM PDT by I-ambush (If we make it, we'll all sit back and laugh, but I fear tomorrow I'll be crying)
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To: Hiryusan

State bureaucracy majority laid off, rest shrinks to caretaker status. National guard mobilized under an appointed territorial governor for territory law enforcement. All state, county & municipal unions decertified, K-12 system shrinks to minimum staff 1 - 12 classrooms open, 1 teacher per class. No state funds for outside activities such as sports, etc.


52 posted on 06/10/2017 5:49:00 PM PDT by Reily
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To: raybbr

Another great Democrat success story.


53 posted on 06/10/2017 7:16:00 PM PDT by ChiMark (America America)
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To: raybbr

Another great Democrat success story.


54 posted on 06/10/2017 7:16:01 PM PDT by ChiMark (America America)
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To: Secret Agent Man

I would tend to say the same but I remember 10+ years ago when people were claiming CA was at the brink of “bankruptcy” and couldn’t possibly stay solvent for another year.


55 posted on 06/10/2017 8:47:17 PM PDT by steve86 (Prophecies of Maelmhaedhoc O'Morgair (Latin form: Malachy))
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To: Wolfie

How would Medicare wipe out state finances?


56 posted on 06/10/2017 8:49:37 PM PDT by steve86 (Prophecies of Maelmhaedhoc O'Morgair (Latin form: Malachy))
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To: steve86

Medicaid.


57 posted on 06/10/2017 9:10:14 PM PDT by Wolfie
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To: steve86

Considering they passed a 400 billion dollar piece of hcare legislation without any concern how it will be funded, they have an excellent chance at it.


58 posted on 06/10/2017 9:37:54 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man ( Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: Wolfie

It’s hard to see how even block-granted Medicaid funds would do that.


59 posted on 06/10/2017 9:38:14 PM PDT by steve86 (Prophecies of Maelmhaedhoc O'Morgair (Latin form: Malachy))
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To: Secret Agent Man

If that really goes through to become law.


60 posted on 06/10/2017 9:39:22 PM PDT by steve86 (Prophecies of Maelmhaedhoc O'Morgair (Latin form: Malachy))
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