Posted on 02/25/2017 7:47:01 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Guest Essay By Larry Kummer. Posted at the Fabius Maximus website.
Summary: To boost our fear, activists and journalists report the weather with amnesia about the past. Ten year records become astonishing events; weather catastrophes of 50 or 100 years ago are forgotten. It makes for good clickbait but cripples our ability to prepare for the inevitable. California’s history of floods and droughts gives a fine example — if we listen to the US Geological Survey’s reminder of past megafloods, and their warning of the coming ARkStorm.
” A 43-day storm that began in December 1861 put central and southern California underwater for up to six months, and it could happen again.”
— “California Megaflood: Lessons from a Forgotten Catastrophe” by B. Lynn Ingram (prof of Earth Science, Berkeley) in Scientific America, January 2013.
Lithograph of K Street in Sacramento, CA during the 1862 flood. From Wikimedia commons.
One of the key events in California history has disappeared from our minds. For a reminder see this by the US Geological Survey.
“Beginning on Christmas Eve, 1861, and continuing into early 1862, an extreme series of storms lasting 45 days struck California. The storms caused severe flooding, turning the Sacramento Valley into an inland sea, forcing the State Capital to be moved from Sacramento to San Francisco for a time, and requiring Governor Leland Stanford to take a rowboat to his inauguration. William Brewer, author of Up and Down California in 1860-1864
, wrote on January 19, 1862, ‘The great central valley of the state is under water — the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys — a region 250 to 300 miles long and an average of at least twenty miles wide, or probably three to three and a half millions of acres!’
‘In southern California lakes were formed in the Mojave Desert and the Los Angeles Basin. The Santa Ana River tripled its highest-ever estimated discharge, cutting arroyos into the southern California landscape and obliterating the ironically named Agua Mansa (Smooth Water), then the largest community between New Mexico and Los Angeles. The storms wiped out nearly a third of the taxable land in California, leaving the State bankrupt.
“The 1861-62 series of storms were probably the largest and longest California storms on record. However, geological evidence suggests that earlier, prehistoric floods were likely even bigger. There is no scientific evidence to suggest that such extreme storms could not happen again. However, despite the historical and prehistorical evidence for extreme winter storms on the West Coast, the potential for these extreme events has not attracted public concern, as have hurricanes. The storms of 1861-62 happened long before living memory, and the hazards associated with such extreme winter storms have not tested modern infrastructure nor the preparedness of the emergency management community.”
For an account of the flood from that time see this by J. M. Guinn; an excerpt from Exceptional Years: A History of California Floods and Drought (1890). Red emphasis added.
Flooded area in California: 1861-1862. From The West without Water.
“The great flood of 1861-62 was the Noachain deluge of California floods. During the months of December, 1861, and January, according to a record kept at San Francisco, 35 inches of rain fell, the fall for the season footed up nearly 50 inches {average is 24 inches/year}. As in Noah’s the windows of heaven were opened, and the waters prevailed exceedingly on the face of the earth.
“The valley of the Sacramento vast inland sea; the city of Sacramento was submerged and almost ruined. Relief boats on their errands of mercy, leaving the channels of the rivers, sailed over inundated ranches, past floating houses, wrecks of barns, through vast flotsams, made up of farm products farming implements, and the carcasses of horses, sheep and cattle, drifting out to sea.
“…To the affrighted vaqueros, who had sought safety on the hills, it did seem as if the fountains of the great deep really been broken up, and that the freshet had filled the Pacific to overflowing. The Arroyo Seco, swollen to a mighty river, brought down from the mountains and canons great rafts of drift-wood …{that} furnished fuel to poor people of the city for several years.
“It began raining on December 24, 1861, and continued for thirty days, with but two slight interruptions. The Star published the following local: ‘A Phenomenon – Tuesday last the sun made its appearance. The phenomenon lasted several minutes and was witnessed by a great number of persons.’
“…After the deluge, what? The drought. It began in the fall of 1862, and lasted to the winter of 1864-65. The rainfall for the season of 1862-63 did not exceed four inches, and In the fall of 1863 a few showers fell, but not enough to start the grass. No more fell until March. The cattle were of gaunt, skeleton-like forms, moved slowly of food. Here and there, singly or in small weak to move on, stood motionless with of starvation. It was a pitiful sight. …
“The loss of cattle was fearful. The plains were strewn with their carcasses. In marshy places …the ground was covered with their skeletons, and the traveler for years afterward was often startled by coming suddenly on a veritable Golgotha — a place of skulls — the long horns standing out in defiant attitude, as if protecting the fleshless bones. …The great drought of 1863-64 put an end to cattle raising as the distinctive industry of Southern California.”
For a more detailed account see “California Megaflood: Lessons from a Forgotten Catastrophe” by B. Lynn Ingram (prof of Earth Science, Berkeley) in Scientific America, January 2013 (PDF here). The risk of such megafloods remains today as shown in the video “Central Valley Flood Risk” by the California Department of Water Resources and the Corps of Engineers, July 2011.
Why is flood risk so high in California? This video explores the history, risk and government efforts to reduce flooding with one of the world’s largest flood risk reduction systems.
The ARkStorm scenario was prepared by the US Geological Survey, who gathered a team of 117 scientists and engineers — with contributions from 42 Federal, California, and local agencies and universities. Here is the opening of the introduction to the ARkStorm Scenario. For more information see the press release and the full report.
“The ARkStorm storm is patterned after the 1861-62 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming a series of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that approach the ferocity of hurricanes and then slam into the U.S. West Coast over several weeks. Atmospheric Rivers are relatively narrow regions in the atmosphere that are responsible for most of the horizontal transport of water vapor outside of the tropics.
“Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snow lines, wind, and pressure data, the modelers characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation that translate into infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration was given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence.
“…Megastorms are California’s other Big One. A severe California winter storm could realistically flood thousands of square miles of urban and agricultural land, result in thousands of landslides, disrupt lifelines throughout the state for days or weeks, and cost on the order of $725 billion. This figure is more than three times that estimated for the ShakeOut scenario earthquake, that has roughly the same annual occurrence probability as an ARkStorm-like event.”
“We don’t even plan for the past.”
— Steven Mosher (member of Berkeley Earth; bio here), a comment posted at Climate Etc.
The political gridlock on public policy relating to climate change has prevent the most obvious and easy first step — preparing for the almost inevitable repeat of past extreme weather. Events like superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina were warnings, showing our mad lack of preparation for likely weather events. Unless we change soon, we will pay dearly for our folly.
This is a follow-up to Lessons learned from the end of California’s “permanent drought”. For more about the great flood see Wikipedia and a brief but eloquent account in the 21 January 1862 New York Times.
For more information about this vital issue see The keys to understanding climate change, and especially these …
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An ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1000 Storm) is a hypothetical but scientifically realistic "megastorm" scenario developed and published by the United States Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP). It describes an extreme storm that might impact much of California causing up to $725 billion in losses (most caused by flooding), and affect a quarter of California's homes. The event would be similar to exceptionally intense California storms which occurred between December 1861 and January 1862.[1] The name "ARkStorm" means "Atmospheric River (AR) 1000 (k)."
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more at wikipedia.
fyi
fyi
For later reference. Great Post, Ernie!
California’s past megafloods –
and the coming ARkStorm
Check out article, comments, and # 21 for definition.
Thanks, Ernest_at_the_Beach.
An ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1000 Storm)
Water so deep need a big boat.
What next? Sharkanado IV?
What the He!! is an ARkStorm?>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Its weather propaganda to make people believe in climate change.
But Noah ain’t biting.
The SKY is NOT falling despite Chicken Little’s pronouncements.
People in California simply need to prepare.
I would say “hypothetical” only in the details. We know these are common events, viewed on any kind of time scale at all.
We know how to mitigate at least some of this, but (with kudo’s to Babylon 5 for most if not all of the original thought), instead we have a case of:
Analyze problem.
Develop solution.
Do the opposite.
Its weather propaganda to make people believe in climate change.
No, it's a reenactment of a fairly common event, allowing for the much bigger human population that will be affected when (not if) it happens.
People in California simply need to prepare.
Other than evacuating, how does one living there prepare for the Central Valley as a large lake?
My guess is money was probably allocated for flood control in Calif. and its anyone’s guess where it actually went.Democrat control of states and cities yield catastrophes over and over.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-13/oroville-dam-disaster-latest-series-ca-government-corruption-environmental-failures
.................
California negligently failed to make preparations for the inevitable end to a major drought which had been occurring since 2011. For 12 years, environmental groups had warned federal and state officials that the dam was likely to experience structural issues in the event of heavy rains and flooding. Reports are surfacing that the large pothole which has lead to the failure of the Oroville dam spillway was known to the state governmet since 2013. Governor Jerry Brown had years to direct the Democrat controlled state government to authorize funding and enact plans for repairs to the dam while water levels remained low. The Water Quality, Supply, and Infrastructure Improvement Act of 2014 set aside $395,000,000 for flood management, but to date has not allocated any of it to actual repairs or projects, raising questions about where the money currently sits and what it has been used for since 2014.
Happy hour in the keys 30 years ago.....
Ok, I want to get this straight with no errors. Are you saying that they have their heads up each OTHERS arses or up their OWN arses? Big difference and totally different picture in my mind. One is a very tight short circle and one is a very long line or a very large circle culminating at Gov Browns arse.......
Also, when disconnecting ones said head from the arse circle, the popping sound would be just a tad different. Think about it because I do not have time to go into details right now, my grits are ready.
I say let them eat cake and find the money to plan for it. Build on a hill or something, crIIkey......
If you know it is going to flood then do not build there, moron.
Monkey got sense, that is why he lives in a tree by the river and not on a rock by the side of it.
Did Governor Brown lift the yard watering ban in time to avert this disaster?
Water is an equal opportunity force. It does not care if you are here legally or illegally.
Large volumes of water seeking lower ground, like President Trump, is not to be trifled with.
Problem is everywhere you have liberal/dem leadership from NYC to Chicago, Calif to the new surrender state/sanctuary state of Conn. you have eventual collapse.It happens everywhere.
You can tell this isn’t #FakeNews because they didn’t blame either “Climate Change” *OR* President Trump.
Q. What happens when California floods out?
A. CalifornIANS flood other states, turning them blue.
Well, maybe. Let's think this out.
The liberals in CA are concentrated in Sacramento, and on the coast. The Central Valley is more conservative. So all the conservatives will leave, but all the parasites which invest Sacramento will stay, since they don't wish to give up their power.
So presumably these floods will wash out the few remaining conservatives from California, while wrecking its economy, turning it into Venezuela north.
And all that water can't be good for the stability of the tectonic plates, which primarily affect...the Coast.
And the resultant earthquakes will take out LA and San Fran.
Leaving an empty state suitable for recolonization by *sane* people...who can vote out the Communists and looney tunes who are left in Sacramento.
But if any of my suppositions or intervening steps are wrong, this does not hold.
Thoughts?
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