Posted on 02/22/2017 7:40:22 AM PST by pgkdan
I will be short here because, frankly, there is not much more to say. We are dealing with a relentless opponent on the AGW side who understands that: 1) Most people don’t know what the weather has done before and is capable of doing again simply by its nature; and 2) A compliant press and accepting public has been taught that we are destroying the planet (I call it the “Fern Gully” generation, a movie that was banned in our house for my kids, but I am sure many kids around my kids' age have seen it).
I grow wary of it all. It’s like knowing what happened before is a detriment, not a benefit. But that is the world we live in today.
So to sum it up: The California perma-drought was temporary. And guess what? Another El Niño is coming (which will be blamed on climate change and play right into alarmists' hands since a perfectly natural occurrence will then naturally spike the global temperature again), and it’s going to rain more next winter and most likely heavier in the south than north. Why? Because that is what happens much of the time during El Niños.
And guess what? The Texas perma-drought, touted after hot summers that resembled closely the early 1950s, was also temporary.
Anyone want to call alarmists out on this instead of blindly accepting the idea that the same thing they used to forecast a drought was responsible for breaking it?
By the way, the situation in the Pacific is changing as the extreme cold that charged off Asia in the late fall and winter and forced the cold tongue to push east to create a situation conducive to this is fading. As always in nature, there are swings back and forth.
While I have you here, a few things that I am forecasting. Let’s see how it turns out.
We are concerned that for the first time since 2011, this is a bigger than normal severe weather season. Of course, man-made global warming will be blamed for that.
We believe the overall hurricane season, by the objective ACE index, will be less than last year and likely below average. However, the very warm near the U.S. means that storms are most likely to be stronger the closer they are to the coastline than way out at sea, Any storm that hits the U.S. will prompt someone to blame global warming.
Once we break whatever hold invading cold has on March, we should have a very warm U.S. east and south well into the middle of the summer season, though unlike last year, summer may break quicker. Whatever happens, global warming will be blamed.
Next winter, the El Niño shaping up appears to be the kind that we had in ‘02-'03 and '09-'10, which are colder/snowier versions than the '15-'16 version. That too will be blamed on global warming.
Notice I have incorporated the forecast of people blaming global warming, That way I am sure to be right on one aspect of all them. No matter what happens, global warming will be blamed (or as it’s called today, “climate change”).
Now there are four forecasts to look at, and I am sure that if I am wrong (an example being what has happened in the back end of this winter) my feet will be held to the fire. But that is the world I operate in and frankly love since there is a standard. This is far from what I see going on with the other side, where perma-droughts are ostensibly the result of global warming, even though they break for the same reason in their distorted world.
So what has always happened — droughts followed by rain, rain followed by drought — is apparently no longer because of nature.
Such a world is a fantasy world, which unfortunately throws aside real world observation and this cold hard fact: What CO2 is doing now to the climate, given the established record of CO2 and temperature, is arguable if not negligible.
Forecasting perma-droughts based on an agenda should immediately raise questions about the methods and motives of people doing such things.
Here is one thing that is true and always will be. Every drought ends with a lot of rain. Always has, always will.
Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm, and contributor to The Patriot Post on environmental issues.
It never rains in California
The girls don’t they warn ya
But it pours
Man it pours
... or something like that
Fifty five years ago, on some TV game show broadcast from California, a woman won a tanning contest in which she would be given a special bathing suit baring one leg and arm, lay out in the California sun every other day, then be flown to Florida in the intervening days to do the same with the other arm and leg exposed.
At the end of two weeks, CALIFORNIA WON! Florida had cloud cover.
Wonder how that would do today.
That sure kept her busy, I imagine
I can just see it. “No fair! The ocean needs more California snowmelt water!”
“It never rains in SOUTHERN California “
to be precise.
See the water God supplies. His common grace a great surprise.
cloud cover does not stop the tan, or the burn, makes it worse, because the skin does not get as hot from the infrared, but still cooks with the uv.
I expect that around May, our governor, Jerry Brown, will advise all of us dumb CA residents that the State of California STILL HAS A DROUGHT!
Anyone with an ounce of intelligence who reviews the annual recorded rain levels in CA over the past 100 years can see that the average rainfall calculation is a near meaningless calculation as this state’s annual rainfall amounts vary from near nothing to overwhelming. So much for Brown and his cohorts who continually push their global warming baloney and their continuous attempts to control every aspect of our lives.
Hey Jerry, how is that high speed rail construction working out for you? How many years are you already behind schedule, how many billions of dollars is it overrunning its budget, and don’t forget you haven’t even started trying to build a multi-mile long tunnel under ome of the most earthquake prone mountain ranges in Southern California.
The bullet train is kind of like California’s version of the tower of Babel... except horizontal
I’ve lived in both CA and FL. The CA sun is more dangerous because it is dryer out there so you uncover and bake in it. It feels comfortable to be in the direct CA sun.
The humidity in FL is severe and it amplifies the suns intensity and heat so you either cover up or limit exposure.
Absolutely correct. California’s “water storage process” assumes that there are two phases to winter, early rains followed by melting snow. During phase one, they shuffle water off to Southern California to be stored. Then the melting snow refills the reservoirs. Problem is, the reservoirs are all brimming, so they will have to let a lot of water go to make room for the melting snow. You may be correct about the higher elevation of the snowpack this year, but as a skier, I can tell you that where the snow is, it’d damned deep, deeper by far than normal.
Yah, vette, tons of snow at the highest elevations.
It is the snow below the ski areas that is at rain risk.
Always good to hear from you. I’m posting on the fly
so I tend to miss some stuff.
I guess though, with the unseasonal rains, this year, if the snowpack is less, that the early rains will more than make up the snow deficit. It isn’t particularly helpful though to be being forced to make unscheduled releases from Oroville because of the spillway failure.
I don’t know if you have this website to view, but it covers all the California reservoirs:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action
Just click on the name of the Reservoir and it opens a huge data base of current and historical water date for that facility.
Love it. Spread that around.
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