Posted on 12/01/2016 3:59:11 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Shilly’s total vote share in TX was 43.24%, less than a couple points ahead of Obama’s 2012 41.35% and UNDER his 2008 share of 43.63% (and under Bill Clinton’s 1996 % and Dukakis’s too), while uncool that’s hardly super frightening. The other half of the equation as Auh mentioned is the increased third party vote.
I calculated and posted the 2-party vote share cause I thought that was useful data but the only states where Obama didn’t get a higher total % than Shilly in either 2008 or 2012 or both were, CA and
let’s see, not AZ, bammy got higher in 2008, not GA, Bammy got higher BOTH times, not UT, Bammy got higher in 08. Hell I think CA, TX, AZ, UT are the only ones where she exceeded his 2012 %, even considering that she lost votes to Stein and in some states, Bernie write ins, that’s not impressive. As totally uncool as some county (and CD) results were, on the state level, not impressive.
New York, I’ve been eager to see this one.
First an aside, it was reported after the election that Shilly won NY outside of NYC by only a few hundred or something, meaning she lost the state outside the 4 bad boroughs. Final totals however sadly have her ahead outside the bad boroughs by 35,652 votes. Clinton must have done well in the absentees (how many snow birds that illegally doubled voted in NY/Florida?), Dave Leip tweeted that Duchess county, carried by Trump on election night, flipped to her.
Trump carried all the GOP districts save (unsurprisingly) for Kakto’s and carried Sean Maloney’s district.
Clinton/Trump/Obama/Romney
NY-1 where Lee Zeldin (R) won in a landslide
42.2 54.5 49.6 49.1
NY-2, RINO Pete King
43.9 53.0 51.6 47.2
Both carried easily
NY 3, Open seat which held by the rats 53-47
51.6 45.5 50.8 48.2
This one oddly actually swung to shilly. Most disappointing district in the state, it includes a small part of Queens. GOP nominee for the seat carried the Suffolk county portion, lost Nassau and badly lost Queens.
Finishing the long island seats with NY-4 Rice (D)
53.4 43.8 56.3 42.8
Slight improvement, Rice swamped a weak challenger
NY-11
43.8 53.6 51.6 47.3
Staten Island, back where it belongs
NY 18, Sean Maloney’s (D) seat, he won by 11 points over a weak foe
47.1 49.0 51.4 47.1
Narrowly captured by Trump, obviously the #1 target for NY GOP
NY 19, open GOP Seat, held for us by conservative John Faso by 8 or so points
43.7 51.0 52.1 45.9
Similar margin for Trump
NY 21, Elise Stefanik’s (R) seat, she had desultory opposition and took 65%
(R) 40.0 53.9 52.2 46.1
Not close! Big increase. Northern NY returned to it’s roots. Clinton only won Clinton county (amusingly the worst county up there) by a couple points
NY 22, Open GOP seat held by conservative Claudia Tenney by 5.5 points,, there was a Reform (yes Reform, the Independence party did not support anyone) candidate that got over 12%, more from Tenney than the rat.
39.3 54.8 48.8 49.2
Not close! Was a narrow win for Romney.
NY 23 Tom Reed (R)
39.7 54.5 48.4 49.6
Very similar to the 22nd
NY 24, Kakto’s (R) seat, he ended up winning by 21 points
48.9 45.3 57.0 41.1
Trump didn’t carry it but he came a LOT closer as you can see
Obviously, Trump wasn’t attempting to put NY in play. However, if it were a separate state outside the city, I have little doubt he would’ve carried it. Probably a fair number of voters don’t bother to turn out in places where it’s a foregone conclusion (i.e. Upstate Republicans or CA Republicans).
I agree.
That 35 K vote margin increase for Clinton though, just from absentees and provisional ballots? Seems too “yuge” to be kosher.
Everybody knows how NY has such stringent voter ID laws.
*cough*
Bama, all districts swung toward Trump other than the 6th, which nevertheless remained the state’s most heavily Republican district.
State Senator Mark Green (R) running for TN Governor, thoughts?
Sen. Green seems to be the most Conservative of the potential candidates at present. Reps. Diane Black and Marsha Blackburn are mentioned, but I don’t think both would run (Black is most likely to go for it). If Black runs, she may get the establishment backing.
Missouri (states remaining BTW, FL, NC, KS, PA, MD)
MO-01 Clay, Lacy (D) 77.0 18.8 79.9 18.9
MO-02 Wagner, Ann (R) 42.3 52.6 41.4 57.1
MO-03 Luetkemeyer, Blaine (R) 28.1 67.1 36.1 62.0
MO-04 Hartzler, Vicki (R) 29.3 65.3 36.4 61.2
MO-05 Cleaver, Emanuel (D) 54.1 40.6 58.9 39.4
MO-06 Graves, Sam (R) 31.7 63.1 37.9 60.0
MO-07 Long, Billy (R) 24.7 70.4 30.3 67.6
MO-08 Smith, Jason (R) 21.0 75.4 32.0 65.9
As you would expect, rat swing in Wagner’s seat but Hillary was only up 0.9% over Obama. Gains in other GOP districts, biggest in the 8th, which takes over the top spot from the 7th.
Interesting article about a town called Liberal.
The MO GOP needs to be more aggressive with finding a way to dismantle the 5th.
That article on Liberal, MO was a bit condescending (I took note that the city founder was not a “classic liberal”, but a left-wing, anti-Christian statist, one of those who perverted the term from its historic definition. However, at least to his credit, he came around to Christianity by the end of his life. Although one could still be a left-winger and Christian by William Jennings Bryan standards of the 1896-1912 period). They did have some senile whiner at the end of the article bitching about how the rural folks didn’t understand the cities. So why doesn’t he move back to one ?
Dismantling the MO-05 would be easy to do if the legislature is willing to have the MO-05 go from KC down to the Arkansas border (and then follow the border east for a couple more counties, maybe all the way to Taney) and have the MO-04 (Vicky Hartzler)take in just about all of Jackson County outside of KC. (The MO-06 (Sam Graves) should be kept out of Jackson County (it already has some marginal/Dem areas in Buchanan, Clay, etc. to the north of KC.) The Springfield-based MO-07 doesn’t need all of those GOP counties west and south of Greene and can go northeast until it takes in Democrat Boone County and still be comfortably GOP.
MD and PA results available
Not much to say about Maryland, GOP margin increased slightly in our only district, the 1st, and rat margin increased slightly in the only semi-competitive district, the 6th. Not significant.
Clinton/Trump/Obama/Romney
MD-01 Harris, Andy (R) 33.5 61.9 37.8 60.3
MD-06 Delaney, John (D) 55.8 39.7 55.4 42.6
Let’s look at PA
PA-06 Costello, Ryan (R) 48.2 47.6 48.1 50.6
PA-07 Meehan, Pat (R) 49.3 47.0 48.5 50.4
These 2 suburban Philly seats that narrowly went to Romney saw a slight swing to Clinton and she carried them. Costelleo and Meehan both won easily.
PA-08 Fitzpatrick, Brian (R) 48.0 48.2 49.3 49.4
Almost no change in this district, Romney won by a tenth of a point, Trump by 2 tenths.
PA-15 Dent, Charlie (R) 44.2 51.8 47.9 50.8
RINOish Charlie Dent’s seat sees a little bump for Trump
PA-16 Smucker, Lloyd (R) 44.2 51.0 46.3 52.4
Trump down a little but Clinton down a little more
PA-17 Cartwright, Matt (D) 43.3 53.4 55.4 43.3
In thinking about rat districts that may have gone Trump, I forgot about this one. Nearly a mirror imagine of 2012, 10 point win for Trump. Cartwright won reelection by less than 8 points over one Matt Connolly, I didn’t even know there was a real race on there. District to watch.
All heretofore unmentioned GOP districts saw increases ranging from slight to fairly big, here are the 2 next most marginal GOP seats, fairly big gains
PA-03 Kelly, Mike (R) 35.0 61.1 43.0 55.6
PA-11 Barletta, Lou (R) 36.2 60.0 44.5 53.9
Ping to #91
Clearly the White working class carried PA for Trump. If he’d relied on the rich White suburbanites, the media stereotype of Republicans, he’d have lost. I did stand on my prediction that PA would swing to Trump.
Well he alienated those kinds of voters, it doesn’t have to be that way next time.
As AUH has said repeatedly, we should get both.
Florida CD results
Clinton/Trump Obama/Romney
FL-07 Murphy, Stephanie (D) 51.4 44.1 49.4 49.4
It doesn’t indicate who edged who in 2012 in this court ordered mangled district. This is Seminole County (narrowly held by Trump) and what I presume is the best part of Orange (Winter Park). Figured Clinton carried it but not by this much, we see how why Mica (R) was narrowly unseated by this rat (named Murphy, sigh), pure coatails. Another area seat (Webster’s, who fled to an open GOP seat) was made safely rat by the court so we lost 2 from this awful region.
FL-13 Crist, Charlie (D) 49.6 46.4 54.6 43.9
Jolly’s court ordered redrawn seat, our other incumbent Republican who narrowly lost, to the Orange Menace, but look at the swing to Trump. Trump carried Pinellas (St. Pete) country but the district excludes the most Republican part. I would’t have figured he would have gotten so close in this one. We can get his one back, and the 7th too.
Hillsborough County (Tampa) swung the other way, I wonder why.
FL-18 Mast, Brian (R) 44.1 53.3 47.7 51.4
Our pickup of the open seat of rat Senate nominee Patrick Murphy, who unseated/robbed Allen West under previous though very similar lines even as Romney took the distinct. This is a northern part of Palm Beach county, Martin county, and St. Lucie County, which went to Trump after Obama/Murphy won it under IIRC suspicious circumstances and a wide margin in 2012, Murphy carried the county over Rubio in the Senate race, though Rubio statewide ran ahead of Trump. Mast won (the district, narrowly edging it in St. Lucie) by 10 points and should not have trouble holding it.
FL-25 Diaz-Balart, Mario (R) 47.9 49.6 44.9 54.5
Figured this swung to Clinton but Trump still carried it, I was correct though it was closer than I thought. District contains most of heavily GOP Collier County (which swung a little to Clinton, not significantly). the Miami-Dade portion is the problem. Diaz-Balart crushed his opponent
FL-26 Curbelo, Carlos (R) 56.7 40.6 55.4 43.9
FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana (R) 58.6 38.9 53.0 46.3
Clinton carried these 2, as had Obama, only districts to split their tickets, nasty swings, nasty margins. After the illegal court ordered remap I feared for the Curbelo seat. But he won easily over the rats poor choice of a nominee, corrupt Ex-Congressman Joe Garcia, good sign. The 26th contains Monroe County, which Trump became the first Republican since HW Bush to carry, but again. Dade was the problem. Ros-Rinochen won reelection in the 27th by just under 10 points, her closest race since her initial election. I think it was the biggest Clinton win in district with a GOP member. It’ll be a fight when she retires but we can hold it.
Cuban voters sticking with their GOP Reps despite dem POTUS gains, gains which hopefully can be somewhat reversed next time.
Disgusting remap still burns me, though at least got rid of Bob Graham;s daughter (who is still unfortunately a statewide danger)
Kansas results
I was afraid Shillery might have edged it out in the 3rd, and she did
KS-03 Yoder, Kevin (R) 47.2 46.0 44.3 53.8
Movement in the other 3 districts was very slight.
Yoder won 51-41-8 over a rat and liartarian that could have played spoiler in a closer race
The 3rd could use some shoring up. The 1st district is overwhelmingly Republican, should be unpacked.
Wyandotte County (Kansas City) should be placed in the sprawling KS-01; Republicans were thinking of doing just that in 2011, but Democrats pointed out that it would be a (GASP!) gerrymander, and Republicans desisted.
Of course, the fact that Hillary narrowly carried the KS-03 does not mean that the Democrats will have an easy time carrying it; as in other affluent suburban areas, Trump badly underperformed Romney in Johnson County (Overland Park, etc.) and I expect less-populist Republicans to continue to do well there.
Ugh Moore, so many failed attempts to get rid of that bastard.
Twinkle twinkle Kenneth Starr, no wait, that was the guy in NJ who lost to Rush Holt. What did Vince Snowbarger do wrong? Damn RINOs in that district voted in Moore.
Auh2: “Wyandotte County (Kansas City) should be placed in the sprawling KS-01”
It SHOULD be placed in black hole that no vote can escape from, but KS-1 would do. ;-p
The legislature needs to man up in 2020. I think we’ll need to get rid of some RINOs, sadly a bunch of them beat conservatives in the 2016 primaries, the same people went after and successfully beat Tim Huelskamp.
KS-03 was made a bit more Republican in 2011 redistricting by paring back its portion of Douglas County, but you’re right that a GOP House candidate is not a lock in the district. That being said, I don’t see Yoder losing in the next two cycles, and after that we’ll have redistricting.
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