Florida Early Vote Final Update, 11/08/2016

11/08/2016 | self

[GregoTX]

I keep hearing from FOX that 200,000 more Hispanics have voted than in 2012!!!

Open borders, illegal aliens, moslem refugees, full throttle migration.... it's all about one thing.... a permanent game changing democrat voting drive.

[lilypad]

FBN f gives me the best news along with OAN. Kick Fox to the curb and never forget what they have tried to do to us .

[rocklobster11]

Also, the vote differential is down from D +168K in 2012 to D +90K in 2016 while the total vote is up 1.5M, so the D lead of 90K is actually smaller than it appears.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I had to go look up the word tautology.

I don’t think it is a tautology. There is no duplication.

If the election was on the first Tuesday in November, the election this year would have been on November 1st. One week ago. But November 8th is the first Tuesday after the first Monday.

Correct?

[LS]

FWIW, Bill Mitchell, Trump’s guy, says we win by 700,000 votes. I’ll split the difference and say 4% and 400,000

[LS]

FWIW, Bill Mitchell, Trump’s guy, says we win by 700,000 votes. I’ll split the difference and say 4% and 400,000

[KavMan]

Feeling alittle better! =)

[ReaganGeneration2]

DEM lead has been reduced from 168,000 in 2012 early voting to 90,102 in 2016. That is an improvement of 78,000. That wipes out Obama's entire 2012 winning margin.

In addition, Trump wins if we can assume

* A weekend Poll said FL voters who planned to vote Trump today +15% (sorry, no link here); this adds 7-8% to Trump overall

* More early voting Independents vote Trump than they did for Romney 2012 (the massive exodus from Rep party membership)

* More Dem early voters actually voted Trump than Rep early voters voted Clinton

* (The biggest IF) Voter fraud in 2012 equals 2016

[SpeedyInTexas]

I’m excited and nervous at the same time.

[rocklobster11]

Bill Mitchell is basing that all on the WP/ABC poll saying Trump had a 10% lead in the combined battleground states. I follow Bill and like his tweets, but he is way too optimistic.

Trump should win FL, but it will be close IMO.

[Ravi]

This slight Dem county I am watching is Pinellas. GOP has surged past Dems this am. Still early.

http://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Results/2016-Election-Results/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout-2016-General-Election

[hirn_man]

Everybody needs to keep in mind that just because Dems have more early votes it doesn’t mean that all of them are voting for Hillary.

Trump could be picking up a lot of those votes.

[gasport]

There is no duplication.

A Tuesday always follows a Monday. The first first is unnecessary.

I'm trying to kill time today. :^)

[mrs9x]

The only reason the vote surged in Broward and Miami-Dade is because those counties were open for early voting on Sunday, whereas most of the Republican leaning counties were not. Republicans should win the election day voting.

[rocklobster11]

I could see Rep women crossing over more than usual as well, so i’m not sure what the actual crossover result will be. I’d assume working class dem crossover will be greater than combined crossover from women and hispanics, but we shall see.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Thanks for pointing this out. The county is almost equal in REP/DEM registration. Sure looks like REP are going to win the Election Day vote.

[rrrod]

Mine too.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

The DEM lead has been reduced from 168,000 in 2012 early voting to 90,102 in 2016. That is an improvement of 78,000. That wipes out Obama's entire 2012 winning margin.

Add to that the "enthusiasm vote" and Trump wins Florida BIG!

[Ravi]

Yes looks that way.

[ThinkingBuddha]

If we believe CBS poll showing a 45/45 tie, with internals
B - 6%T to 91%C
H - 34 to 54
W - 56 to 33

We are winning by 51,340