USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 11/07 -- Trump 48.0 (- .2) , Clinton 43.2 (+ .6)

USC/LA Times ^ | November 7, 2016 | USC/LA Times

[BlessedBeGod]

	11/07	11/06	Change
Trump	48.0	48.2	- . 2
Clinton	43.2	42.6	+ . 6

[Future Useless Eater]

For FIVE of the last SIX days, LA Times has been AT LEAST 95% confident that Trump will win the popular vote.

[StAnDeliver]

The two young Amish men - one for Trump, one for Hillary - produce remarkably unique signature shifts every time their turn comes up. So much so that you can even see the variations in weighting as the poll progressed.

At any rate, here are some more sui generis explanations from that poll team:

• "The team of researchers at USC who conduct the poll used the same technique four years ago to forecast the 2012 election" ... "The poll was one of the most accurate of the year. It predicted that President Obama would be reelected with a margin of victory of 3.32 percentage points. He won by 3.85 points. Most other polls underestimated Obama’s margin by more than that."
• 
• "We ask people if they voted in 2012 and, if so, whom they voted for. We adjust the sample to match that, so 25% are people who say they voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, 27% are people who say they voted for Obama and 48% either did not vote or were too young to vote last time. Using 2012 votes as a weighting factor is designed to get the right partisan balance in the sample and to ensure that we’re also polling people who did not vote last time, a group that can get left out of some other surveys."

[jazminerose]

And Trump is a very stron closer.

[personalaccts]

I won’t believe it until she says I QUIT

[Corpus_Delicious]

It appears that Trump is peaking at just the right time compared to Obama in 2012. Obama lost almost all of his last rally, but still won by over 3 points.

[littleharbour]

This polling company is brave. They face ridicule if they are wrong, but will be hailed as genious if they are correct. They seem to be the only poll picking up Trump’s enthusiasm advantage. When over 10,000 people stay up into the wee hours on a Sunday night, in a state that the media says is a lock for Clinton, we know something real is happening. And it’s been happening everywhere he has gone the past two months.

[CatOwner]

Typical fluctuation from this poll. For the last week (since Oct 31), Trump is +1.1 and Hillary is -0.1. I would much rather be in Trump’s position relative to this poll than Hillary (last two weeks Trump is +3.9 and Hillary is -1.8).

[Cboldt]

I think we will get a report tomorrow. The report lags one day behind. People will answer today, that will be reported tomorrow, and that will be the end of the poll.

[halo66]

From @LATiimes: “Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes.”
https://t.co/i2bRl4iJkD

Here is what the LA Times is really predicting...

[pgkdan]

This poll always shows Trump’s numbers a little weaker on Monday’s as a result of weekend polling. This is really good news!

[NKP_Vet]

Fox News poll hot off the press and it has the bitch up 4 points, which is a one point increase from Friday. Martha McCallum hyperventilating she’s so happy, refusing to report any other polls. She just told Huckabee the race is over.

[NKP_Vet]

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii

In the meantime a little about the ridiculous Fox Snooze poll.

“This slew of last minute polls surging to Hillary are designed to discourage you on ED. Ignore them.”

**

Bill Mitchell 45 minutes ago
These polls are designed for one purpose. To discourage Trump voters from turning out on ED. They know if we do they lose.

**

Bill Mitchell 47 minutes ago
Once again, the FoxNews poll claims HRC wins 65+ by 12 and wins 24% of Conservatives.

Never gonna happen.

[dragnet2]

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