Posted on 11/04/2016 5:34:28 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
No. it’s a “rolling three day average”. Otherwise known as a three day tracking poll. Yesterday’s sample would have had to be so positive to knock out the 3 point lead. Read the methodology for further details.
We have to get the vote out to overcome the massive voter fraud...
I believe it will be done....
If these polls are being manipulated to help out Hillary as much as they can, then it is no surprise this poll is tied or that Trump “lost” ground heading into this weekend. I guess we’ll find out soon enough whether we have been misled by the polls or whether we have been deceiving ourselves on the strength of Trump (or weakness of Hillary).
“So how in the hell is it a tie?”
Because they’re lying to you.
Amen!
I thought for sure that she’d tank big time after last Friday’s FBI news. But I guessed wrong.
Apparently it will only take an indictment or arrest for the media to actually report the truth about this criminal family. It’s basically been whitewashed and scrubbed from most major news outlets.
We are past the time when polls were a snapshot of the “horse race” or a barometer on public opinion. They are now a campaign tactic and you have to follow the money.
That 3 points is within the margin of error.
Unless and until every registered voter in the country is polled, then there will always be a margin of error. It's just a fact of statistical probability and another reason why placing so much importance on polling is foolish.
1) Dems do outnumber R’s in registration nationally. A D+x (some number) is not oversampling. The value of x is debatable but it is not zero. 2012’s turnout was D+about 6. A pollster who uses it may be wrong because she won’t perform as well as Obama, but it’s a reasonable thing to use.
2) 3% shift in one day means the sample picked up a lot of Clinton voters or lost a lot of Trump voters on one particular night. Maybe it appeared or Trump’s good night rolled off.
3) If it’s the former . . . a good night for Clinton, it will roll off by Tuesday, when a rather better poll is taken.
4) The Friday announcement of last week, recall, DIDN’T SAY ALL THAT MUCH. More evidence found to examine. Not “WE’RE INDICTING”. It would not move many votes, and remember a LOT of votes have already been cast. That announcement absolutely wasn’t enough to have people in the few states that allow a revote to bother changing.
No it cannot change the result because that’s a much smaller slice of the electorate. Those who have made up their minds is very high. Forgotten the exact number but 80 percent I think. So a 10 percent spread for Trump with the supermajority who have made of their mind greatly outweighs an 11 percent spread for Hillary in the 20 percent (or whatever it is) who have not made up their minds.
>>Trump= (.86*.53)+(.14*.3)= 49.78%
Clinton= (.86*.43)+(.14*.41)= 42.72%
So how in the hell is it a tie?<<
I agree. The two results are incompatible. The only explanation I can come up with is that they’re not weighting the result where 53% are breaking for Trump, but they are weighting the result overall (by assuming that more Dems will vote than they’re getting in their sample.)
Otherwise, Trump’s 53% of the 86% who’ve made up their minds puts him at 46% overall without even considering his share of the Undecideds.
Anyway, that 10% difference should be scaring the hell out of Hillary and her supporters. It’s a huge number to overcome, even with the benefit of fraud.
“Most pollsters are moving their polls towards being tied up or close to it. They think this will save their credibility come election no matter who wins”
Agreed. And if Trump wins which I think he’ll do the pollsters will just say there was a late last minute Trump surge that they couldn’t account for in their final surveys, that the undecideds broke big for him.
>>A 3 point swing in one night? How reliable is this poll?<<
I could see it if the poll was taken the day after the 7th World Series game. Hillary ran two commercials that appeared quite effective against Trump, one on his women problem and another on the supposed nuclear threat.
40 million people were tuned in, so I’d have been surprised to see Trump hold his own after those commercials ran.
I’d expect things to even out in a day or so though.
Anyway, wonder what all the Bernie people nationwide are going to do?
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