Posted on 10/26/2016 10:41:33 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
The linchpin of Central Asia could face a revolution ? and it could pit Russia and China against each other
Victoria Kelly-Clark, Global Risk Insights
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (R) shakes hands with his Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev during a meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, September 3, 2016. Sputnik/Pool/Dmitry Astakhov/via REUTERS Russian Prime Minister Medvedev meets his Uzbek counterpart Mirziyoyev in Samarkand Thomson Reuters
The premature death of Islam Karimov, president of Uzbekistan and one of Central Asia’s main political actors, has created a dangerous power vacuum in the country.
The fallout from his death in September 2016 has the potential to go several ways. Uzbekistan could collapse into political turmoil as the three largest clans compete to consolidate and expand their own power.
The resulting infighting would destabilise the Uzbek state and lead to wider political and economic turmoil in Central Asia. Another possibility is that the new president will lead the country out of its current stagnancy and seize the opportunity to economically and politically move beyond the hardships characterized by Karimov’s 25-year rule.
Clan struggle
Nevertheless, Karimov’s death will create significant ripples in Uzbekistan’s political landscape. Thanks to his iron grip on the presidency, Uzbekistan’s regional clans have often been an obscured part of the political landscape. The country is divided among 7 clans.
The major clans of Samarkand, Ferghana and Tashkent are the most likely to initiate a conflict. The smaller regional clans of Jizzakh, Khorezm, Karakalpak and Kashkadarya are more subjugated to the larger clans and tend to keep their focus on their own regions.
Islam Karimov, like the Soviets before him, kept the clans at bay by balancing their power throughout his rule.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
P!
“A 2009 Pew Research Center report stated that Uzbekistan’s population is 96.3% Muslim.”
The article is asking whether they’ll align with Russia or China?
Hmmmm....yeah.
Actually that is a good question.
Russia is not now pro-Muslim. That said, Russia is much more racially like Uzbekistan.
China is almost a ethic purity lab. I think this is quite a potential issue, long term.
Then again, maybe not. But it is not a clear question which side will prevail, to this poster.
If two of the three biggest threats to America fight one another, what’s our downside?
Two diplomatic sources and an Uzbek businessman, who all spoke on condition of anonymity, said rival clans had agreed that Mirziyoyev would be the public face of the Uzbek leadership with the title of president, but that he would in reality not be able to make independent decisions.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4866227,00.html
Or replace the clan-buro with a clean-buro.
Do you happen to have the link to original source?
Clan-based politics is deep-rooted. If people like this Babushka take arms, it is most likely to be part of clan warfare. It would be over which clan takes power.
You cannot erase centuries-old social political dynamic in a short period of time, and a decade is indeed short in this realm. Especially, if they try to initiate reform based on a democratic process.
The Russian strategy to handle clan competition is to find the most military capable, control them and wipe out the others. Read this interesting article about Chechnya http://carnegie.ru/2016/10/27/chechnya-s-new-contract-with-kremlin-pub-64955
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