He looks like a Helmut
Posted on 10/20/2016 11:33:12 AM PDT by GilGil
A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.
Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.
Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.
That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.
Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are “bunk.”
The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.
“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”
Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.
Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
That’s it it’s over for Trump.
He’s done for.
/troll
As Diamond and Silk said yesterday”
“It’s not about the ovaries in the Oval Office. It’s about the balls to build the wall!”
I’m surprised that Helmut Norpath hasn’t been fired yet.
Its NY, and especially the rigid leftist State University system.
How has this counter-revolutionary and heretic avoided the people’s justice??
I’m surprised that Helmut Norpath hasn’t been fired yet.
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I thought about that too!
I sincerely pray to God this guy is right, not only would the country literally be saved from the brink of catastrophic and complete irreparable destruction, it would be the biggest middle finger ever given by a people to corruption in their government short of a full blown revolt. Can you imagine if he wins? The deck has been so stacked against the guy from the start it’s unbelievable, and he wins? It would be heroic, it really would. He never backed down, never quit, not once and he literally will have saved the country.
Here is another indicator of public activity that predicts a Trump win, unless the S&P 500 exceeds 2173 by October 31. Currently at about 2141 and not likely to move up in the next 11 days. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/this-chart-predicts-trump-will-win-unless-the-s-p-rallies-in-october
Hard to believe anything in article that refers to a “professer”.....
Hard to believe anything in article that refers to a “professer”.....
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You’ve already lost in your mind. Go home.
I really believe the election numbers will mirror the Brexit numbers. My justification is that the parallels between the British citizen’s and U.S. citizen’s voting patterns are similar, and Trump and Farage’s grass roots campaigning styles are similar.
D&S said that? That’s great!
Maybe it should be made into a bumper sticker - there’s still time left...
He looks like a Helmut
Gotta love those two.
D&S said that? That’s great!
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At the very end of an hour long RSBN broadcast at the very end they said that. Everyone was cracking up.
Go to the 1 hour 29 minute mark:
” It’s not about the ovaries in the oval office, it’s about who has the balls to build the wall.” Cracks me up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObgHaHPdWHo
At the very end of an hour long RSBN broadcast at the very end they said that. Everyone was cracking up.
Go to the 1 hour 29 minute mark:
” It’s not about the ovaries in the oval office, it’s about who has the balls to build the wall.” Cracks me up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObgHaHPdWHo
LOL!!!
Wasn’t 1960 the Kennedy/Nixon cheat fest? Hopefully, his model encompasses the cheat factor for this year.
Wasn’t 1960 the Kennedy/Nixon cheat fest? Hopefully, his model encompasses the cheat factor for this year.
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Yep!
...because of wide spread voter fraud, especially in Chicago.
So I saw a psychologist yesterday for 3 hours of psychometric exercises to check for memory loss. Kind of baseline for me as I age. One of her questions was are you experiencing any stress in your life right now ? and I said just about the election. She nodded and said about 50% of the people she is seeing are too.
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