Posted on 10/20/2016 6:08:37 AM PDT by IBD editorial writer
Donald Trump held onto his 1-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the second day of the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll — 41% to 40%. Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Part's Jill Stein remain far behind at 7% and 5%, respectively.
In a two-way matchup, Clinton continues to hold a three-point lead over Trump — 43% to 41%. The poll included 779 likely voters, giving it a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
The second day's results of the IBD/TIPP poll don't reflect any impact of the spirited presidential debate Wednesday night, which covered a wide range of issues, from the Supreme Court, to abortion, to ISIS, to economic policy and entitlement reform.
During the debate, Clinton repeatedly struggled to defend her policy positions and the Clinton Foundation scandal against sharp questioning from moderator Chris Wallace. When asked, for example, about conflicts of interest involving the foundation while she was Secretary of State, Clinton tried to turn the focus on what she described were the strengths of the nonprofit. She also had difficulty defending her position on gun control and explaining how her economic policies were different from President Obama' failed stimulus package.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Trump would be in much better shape if all of the debate moderators had been like Wallace. There may be some valid complaints about him, but he was a lot better than the others. He at least committed the journalistic sin of challenging Hillary.
a three-point lead over Trump — 43% to 41% ???
800 voters in the poll.....big whoop....
Could be rounding errors
Once again Trump is leading in the three tracking polls (UCS/Dornsife, Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP), whereas he is way down in the MSM single shot polls. Obviously both cannot be right.
The "new" math. (Probably rounding, though.)
My money is on the tracking polls.
I know. But still weird. If you round to 43 and 41, then change the article to 2 points. Minor point I know.
Depends on what they are measuring. I do believe that Clinton has a 6 point lead among people with land lines only, and no caller ID. I tend to weight the polls that did well in 2012 heavier than the polls that didn't.
Apparently all news outlets need their own polls -- to generate news. Presumably, their accountants want "cheap", but "cheap" and "good" are mutually exclusive goals when it comes to opinion polling. "Cheap" and "newsworthy" OTOH...
Expect this nonsense to continue up until the week before the election.
I hope so.
These tracking polls may be employing quantitative techniques the traditional polls don’t.
Sort of like buying stocks above their 10 month moving average, the kind of stuff I have studied for years; applied to polling.
Then again, I was hopeful in 2012; but these quant polls nailed the outcome then.
So are mine - they are at least closer to the real result I think.
IBD was top ranked in 2012!
USC/LaTimes is no longer sitting out there alone. Now 3 major polls are agreeing.
Trump +2 in today’s Rasmussen, right?
They are more expensive, for one thing. IBD polls 2/3 cell phone users. USC/ LA Times has a fixed sample that they poll, but even gives them an electronic device if necessary. Both polling methods are probably more expensive than paying 50 co-eds $200 to each make 20 phone calls.
(Gallup's 1936 election poll that put them on the map used a sample size of 50,000. The only poll that even comes close to that today is Rasmussen.)
For another, the "cheap" polls probably "normalize" results according 2012 voter turnout demographics. Which will NOT be the same in 2016.
Trump is ahead in the 4 way poll, the one that counts, 41-40.
1% is a statistical dead heat and not nearly enough to offset the massive vote fraud expected.
If you look at the trend line, Trump has been ahead since Labor Day with minor fluctuations in voter views of him.
It bodes well for the future. Now Trump needs to get back on message, stop responding to Hillary/MSM clickbait and talk on how to MAGA.
No one else will. If he blows it, it won’t be any one’s fault. What’s keeping him alive is Americans love a winner.
They want him to look and act like one - for the sake of our country. Now its time for him to keep their faith.
Trump CAN outspend Clinton -- the question is if he will, or even believes it's necessary. But at this point in time -- if Trump wins or loses, it is all up to him.
I think Rasmussen is Trump +3 today, 43-40.
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