Posted on 10/19/2016 11:19:00 AM PDT by OneVike
TRUMP 41% -- Hillary 41% DEAD HEAT
Rasmussen's poll released today has Trump tied with Hillary ahead of the last debate tonight. 41% to 41%. There are a couple eye openers that should be a huge worry for the Hillary campaign;
The older the voter is, the more likely he or she is to vote and to vote for Trump.
The older the voter, the more they remember the "90"s and who the Clintons are. Plus younger voters are turned off by Hillary and thus less apt to even vote this year. Democrat candidates loses every time the young voters do not vote
Trump is ahead among whites and other minority voters but remains far behind among blacks.
This is HUGE, because if Trump leads among all white voters, then it shows a flaw their poll. There are not enough voting age black Americans to make up for Trumps lead among white voters. Which means they over sampled black Americans.
Trump leads Hillary 58 percent to 31 with white Americans without a 4 year college degree.
NOT just just Americans who never went to college, but Americans who went to college for a year or two but never graduating. Hillary only leads among those Americans who graduated with a 4 year degree. Big difference than no college education at all. There are millions and millions of Americans who went to college but never ever graduated, or even just received a 2 year degree.
I cannot emphasize the last point too much, because according to this article by the Washington Post, not since Ronald Reagan in 1980, has a candidate held such a large support among white registered voters who did not have a four-year college degree. Trump is leading Hillary by 27 points in this category. That is huge, because it is similar to what Reagan received.
Finally, Trump still leads among white women by 3%.
Why is this important you ask? Well when you consider the population of black women in America, there is not enough of them to give Hillary the lead they claim she has among all women in America. You do the math, it ain't there! Which again points to their over sampling of black Americans in a year that the black vote will not be as big as it was when Obama ran.
Uh, White NON-college graduates. i.e. rednecks? ;-)
Screwed that up, I meant to go 42% — 42%
Oh well it does not change the rest of my fact findings.
Be aware being far behind with blacks is okay. 70-30 behind would be magnificient.
99-1 would not be.
Poor Erick Erickson and red state
That non-college educated gets it far more than college educated do, is a major indictment of our higher education system.
non college graduates = Americans not subjected to four years of communist indoctrination
if you could just squeeze out a little more of that magic for Va, Colorado and Penn it would be greatly appreciated..
How many white males didn’t have a college degree in 1980 vs. Today? (both percentage of population, and total number)
But, but, but-——they promised free che t-shirts with every diploma.
The question is will they show up to vote?
Historical perspective on D/R/I splits and voting percentages. Source, Cornell University Roper Center
From their studies, I show first the D / R actual result, then the D / R / I party split of those who voted in each election followed by how those party voters actually voted, and finally the race breakdown and how they voted.
act vote party reg
Year D/R/3rd D/R/I D D/R R D/R I D / R
1980 41/51/8 43/28/23 67/27/6 11/85/4 31/56/13
1984 41/59 38/35/26 74/26 7/93 36/64
1988 46/53 37/35/26 83/17 8/92 43/57
1992 43/37/19 38/35/27 77/10/13 10/73/17 38/32/30
1996 49/41/9 40/35/22 85/10/5 13/81/6 44/37/18
2000 48/48 39/35/29 87/11 8/91 46/48
2004 48/51 37/37/26 89/11 6/93 50/48
2008 53/45 39/32/29 89/10 9/90 52/44
2012 51/47 38/32/29 92/ 7 6/93 45/50
Race
Year White D/R AA D/R Hisp D/R Asian D/R
1980 88 36/56/8 10 83/14/3 2 56/37/7
1984 86 34/66 10 91/9 3 66/34
1988 85 40/60 10 89/11 3 70/30
1992 87 39/41/21 8 83/10/7 2 61/25/14 1 31/55/15
1996 83 44/46/9 10 84/12/4 5 73/21/6 1 44/48/8
2000 81 42/55 10 90/9 7 62/35 2 55/41
2004 77 41/58 11 88/11 8 53/44 2 56/43
2008 74 43/55 13 95/4 9 67/31 2 62/35
2012 72 39/59 13 93/6 10 71/27 3 73/26
So folks, you can play along at home. Pick the ratio of D / R / I turnout, race turnout splits, how those groups vote
and see what kind of outcome you get.
Personally, I’m going with 37/37/26 with D split 85/15 R split 10/90 and I 42/56 resulting in Trump winning 53 / 46.
One problem with your analysis - non-Hispanic white non college educated voters are a MUCH smaller portion of the electorate than they were in 1980 or 1984. Putting up Reagan era margins on a group that is of declining importance doesn’t get us there.
How could a black woman look at Hillary and be excited about voting for her, especially on the heels of electing Obama twice?
I’m actually looking onto at least Penn and VA. I just don’t believe Colorado is as doable. My energy level isn’t as high as it was, but I’ll see.
Actually I bet less. Since all the perks are for black, illegals and women.
White men are at the bottom of the ladder for help.
So I’ll look, but it would not shock me if the number is less.
Remember, all the liberal press touts is those with an actual 4 year degree.
How could a black woman look at Hillary and be excited about voting for her, especially on the heels of electing Obama twice?
I know a black lady and she is voting for Hillary ONLY because she is a woman. No other reason. Go figure.
If you had been on a University campus in the last decade you would know, there essentially ARE NO white male graduates. So Hillary may be leading in that demographic but there are more Unicorns and Dodo birds than that vanishing species in Millenials.
Just goes to show you what one of those college edumications can get you - Hillary Clinton. Parents should be proud that their college grads are so “intellectual” and don’t have an ounce of common sense.
Just goes to show you what one of those college edumications can get you - Hillary Clinton. Parents should be proud that their college grads are so “intellectual” and don’t have an ounce of common sense.
Or morals.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.