Posted on 10/16/2016 10:09:12 AM PDT by GilGil
Bull feces poll. I don’t believe ANY of them, as soon as the word POLL appears i tune it out.
It only takes about 6% swing to win and it seems that poll says Trump has 7% over Hillary.
Not sure if you’re being serious or sarcastic (if serious, thank you). There’s enough misinformation going on. Why present it as 18% more when that number doesn’t mean much.. it’s a D+7 poll
It will continue to elude people too dumb to grasp the difference between percent and percentage points.
It's no shock that legions of FReepers who have never even walked past a statistics classroom could leap to ridiculous conclusions, but you'd think 5th Grade arithmetic would be within their grasp.
I quickly looked at the poll and noticed that while they had two pages asking about Trump accusations I did not see (or missed) the word “wikileaks” mentioned...
I was being serious.
People are desperate to believe what they want to believe, crowing about polls they like and the ones they don’t are therefore “rigged”. But at least let’s compare apples to apples and not invent some new “rigged” meme based on some math-impaired poster on Twitter.
“Technically” this is true. Thought so.
So you just don’t like the narrative because it sounds even more biased, than a simple “D+...” which has been mocked.
We are in a narrative war and you’re complaining about a “technically true” data statistic because it may seem misleading? Hmm.
These are the same folks who are outraged when a state is called for a candidate as soon as the polls close, based on exit polling. The stick their noses in the air and haughtily state “I’ll wait until the votes are actually counted, thank you very much!”
Exit polls are sometimes (but not very often) flawed or inaccurate, and leftwing media outlets do not hesitate to make calls quickly for a Democrat while waiting forever to make a call for a Republican (so as to influence voters in states where polls are still open) but just try explaining statistics or how exit polling works to people with no background in those areas and you can talk until you’re blue in the face for all the good it does.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/13/rupert-murdoch-prepares-final-assault-on-donald-trump-and-chris-wallace-debate-prep/#more-123121
So that brings us to today, when we are able to see the initial indications of how far Murdoch is going.
Unusually visible tonight on the BOR show is a fellow named Daron Shaw.
Many of you are already familiar with Shaw because we have outlined him frequently. Daron Shaw is a big GOPe party operative (TX) with deep connections to the Bush family global agenda and the BIG GOPe elements within the UniParty. In addition to being Murdoch’s Fox Pollster, Shaw was also the backbone of Rick Perry’s prior campaign for the Presidency.
Suffice to say, Shaw is part of the Bush-Murdoch-Romney-Rubio mold of Wall Street legislative items, and in full alignment with Tom Donohue and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
So Daron Shaw appears Thursday night to discuss Fox’s latest poll (which he conducted because he is “Shaw Research and Associates” – but they never tell you that part).
The poll result he provides is highlighted in the tweet below from Fox (look closely):
Oh my. It appears that Trump has been hurt by the coordinated NBC/Universal hit that took place a week ago (the trump Access Hollywood edited tapes). Remind yourself, the NBC/Universal design was to follow-up with a bad poll. This poll release dovetails nicely with that messaging.
Unfortunately, it’s fundamentally too easy to see through Daron Shaw’s attempt.
Look at the poll internals and you’ll immediately note the difference between “October 3-6”, to “NOW” is created entirely by the a shift of the sample:
Page #22 pdf Party ID
All Daron Shaw did was increase the number of Democrats and decrease the number of responding Republicans. The poll shifted by 7% toward Democrats.
The “NEW” poll of Likely voters is 45% Dem -vs- 36% Rep (9% more Dem, or D+9).
The Oct 3-6 poll of Likely voters was 41% Dem -vs- 39% Rep (2% more, or D+2).
In essence, if you factor in only a 1% gain for Hillary with a 7% increase in Democrats, the actual poll result heavily favors an improvement by Donald Trump. However, that doesn’t fit the unified (Corporate Media) narrative need.
Daron Shaw delivers the Murdoch agenda for Mr Wall Street [Hi Rupert].
However, the appearance of Daron Shaw in coordination with Fox News Vice-President Bill Sammon (circled below) in charge of the debates, and prior knowledge of Fox’s debate set-up strategy against Donald Trump…. well, now we’re getting down to brass tacks.
Don’t forget Fox’s VP of Political Content Bill Sammon’s daughter, Brooke Sammon, was Marco Rubio’s national spokesperson during his presidential bid. Remember the debate where Marco seemed to already know a few of the questions? Well….
Thanks and agreed. I feel bad for folks who take the 18% and interpolate that to mean it’s really a Trump lead... it’s not.. if the turnout is D+0, based on this poll, Hillary would still by up by 5 in this poll. You can choose to discount this poll, and there are many reasons to discount an NBC poll, but skewing or misrepresenting the numbers doesn’t make any sense to me
The USC poll for today is up 2 pts!
Let them keep deluding themselves. They will be shocked and awed on election day.
There is only one reason to have such out of touch polls and that is to cover for massive vote fraud in the election.
Not even push polls can be so bold.
They are not getting accurate poll data and are going to need to really juice the odds to the extent that they overshoot badly and come up some weird 11 % win for Hillary.
You didn’t read a damn thing I said.
If the poll was sampled this way
Dems 35%
Repubs 30%
Ind 35%
Is this a D+5 poll or D+17 poll?
Simple question
attn:
Bush supporters
thanks a lot for throwing the country away
Firstly Dems outnumber Republicans. Also, the over sampling is representative of the lead. The candidate with more support will reflect on higher party identification. For the most part polls try to be accurate and they publish all of the results. This poll might be an outlier although the trend on RCP is confirmed.
October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%
LATimes/USC poll was up marginally.. trump is up by 0.6, up from 0.1. Seriously, where are these wrong numbers coming from?
LATimes/USC poll was up marginally.. trump is up by 0.6, up from 0.1. Seriously, where are these wrong numbers coming from?
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I have no idea!
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