Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes...

Washington Post ^ | 9/23/2016 | Peter W. Stevenson

[concentric circles]

The Keys to the White House

When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins; when any six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

Party Mandate - After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.

Contest - There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

Incumbency - The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

Third party - There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Short-term economy - The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Long-term economy - Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change - The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Social unrest - There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Scandal - The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Foreign/military failure - The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Foreign/military success - The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Incumbent charisma - The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Challenger charisma - The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

[normbal]

Lichtman? I don’t trust that leftist rat bastid as far as I can throw a metaphor. Stay the course folks. Lotsa evil progressive tricks up Granny Clinton’s pantsuit (right next to the catheter bag and assorted metal objects).