Posted on 09/21/2016 7:25:40 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
slide 20: Likely voters: Trump 39, Clinton 37, Johnson 7, Stein 2
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Moving in the right direction and a big improvement for Trump in Reuters where Hillary has been ahead for weeks.
Setting the stage for Hillary’s debate surge.
The only surge Hillary will have is in her depends.
Gained 1% in Economist/YouGov poll today also. The bogus spank the monkey poll is the only thing keeping her head above water
The internals of this poll are DISASTEROUS for Hillary.
772 Dems / 596 Repubs / 234 Independents / 1749 Total
She’s at 37% total when nearly 44% of the people surveyed are Dems!!!
If the true number of Dems and Inds are used she’s probably down by about 7%!!!
How IPSOS sees it’s role:
By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we
attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability
and desire to influence and shape the future.
“GAME CHANGERS” – our tagline – summarises our ambition.
Reuters doesn’t have a stage. This is just a poll.
Sweet!!! It’s all about the trend!
And several percent who are saying Johnson do so because they don’t want to get screamed at for saying “I support Trump”.
And the Reuters poll is a D +7 poll, it is on one of the last slides. Trump still leads even with the skew of that poll.
The only surge Hillary is going to see is when her toilet overflows and nothing more.
D+7, and Hillary can’t get above 37%? That’s an absolute disaster for her
That is right or a little more.
Those numbers are registered voters. The results are likely voters. It is unclear what the likely voter distribution was. I can’t find it in the data.
It’s amazing how these so-called fair polls are always weighted heavily to Democrats. So, in my opinion, the polls are erroneous. When I was taking statistics there was emphasis on sample quality because a bad sampling gives bad results.
When I was taking statistics there was emphasis on sample quality because a bad sampling gives bad results.
1) statistics did not give you answers, it gave you more questions.
2) statistics were for controlled situations with fewer variables, not complex, climate and surveys.
Agreed. The one part of the poll numbers that is hugely promising is the spread with the Independent voters. Trump leads Hillary 39-16% among likely voters (although that leaves a lot of 3rd party & undecided voters).
When I take 772 into 1749 I get 44%.
When I take 596 into 1749 I get 34%.
I see that as a Dem +10 poll.
She’s getting trounced.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.