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The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll (T-47.8 C-41.1)
http://cesrusc.org/election/ ^

Posted on 09/19/2016 5:25:54 AM PDT by RoosterRedux

As of 09/18/2016...

Trump 47.8%

Clinton 41.1%

(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; elections; polls; trump; trumplandslidecoming
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To: randita

Where is the threshold of tolerance for this nonsense?...

BELOW me as of now, not above. I’m WAY past the threshold.

When are those who make excuses for it going to be held accountable?...

On Nov 8th. Unless one of my kin gets so much as a scratch from obama’s sons. Then all ####ing bets are off.


21 posted on 09/19/2016 5:49:07 AM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: SamAdams76

No, .1 up on both candidates.


22 posted on 09/19/2016 5:49:15 AM PDT by traderrob6
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To: SamAdams76

No, well, somewhat.

Yesterday Trump led Clinton, 47.7% to 41.0%.


23 posted on 09/19/2016 5:50:07 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: SamAdams76

Different numbers, same result. Holding firm.


24 posted on 09/19/2016 5:50:24 AM PDT by streetsmart (I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees)
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To: RoosterRedux

For Information, this is a unique type of polling never done before. It polls the same group of apx 3000 people on a rolling average of 400 per day. Other polls use random samples every time, this one uses the same people, but it takes a week to get back to them.

Some criticize it as inaccurate and biased for this reason. To be fair there is merit in the bias argument. There is a higher likelihood of selection bias if the sample is not representative there is no way to correct for it with new subjects. There could be observer bias because the pollsters and polled have an ongoing relationship and desire to keep them in the group. There is repeat bias, because the people polled will remember their previous answers and this will influence their subsequent answers.

It all comes down to how honest and fair minded the subjects are. Since they know they are in the poll and they see the results, they will be influenced by the results they see the others give. But its not all bad. It should be good at tracking a trend, especially when the results change dramatically like they have since Hillary’s bizarre medical episode(s). To move the needle in a big way like this requires overcoming some of the biases.

This poll is sensitive, too. It moves every day with 400 newer answers and dropping the 400 oldest answers. So it would move quicker than other polls that take a week to complete. Other polls seem to be heading in this direction if not as sharply, so again the trends it reveals may be its most important feature.


25 posted on 09/19/2016 5:58:27 AM PDT by monkeyshine
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To: SamAdams76

Same margin, different numbers.


26 posted on 09/19/2016 6:00:36 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: dp0622

I, and most of the commuters on the MetroNorth, got that alert 3x... Can’t be good for the sickly one


27 posted on 09/19/2016 6:03:59 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: Alas Babylon!
Got it! So the margin holds while each candidate gets a 0.1 per cent uptick. Good news.

If we can keep Crooked Hillary in that 40-42 per cent range, it will be landslide territory for Trump.

If you add up the Trump/Clinton percentages, the total is still only 88.9 per cent.

Right now, some of the Trump vote is being held back, either with a third party candidate or with undecided. If Trump is truly around 48 per cent already, he only needs 2-3 per cent of that remaining 11 per cent to go over 50.

I think it's more like 5-6 per cent that Trump will get, putting him in the 53 to 54 per cent range.

28 posted on 09/19/2016 6:05:02 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (It is a wise man who rules by the polls but it is a fool who is ruled by them)
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To: dp0622

“........AFTER I beat him bloody, i’d call 911.”.....

Too bad the “Wanted” poster didn’t say “Dead or Alive”, might have solved a Muslim overcrowding problem at the same time.


29 posted on 09/19/2016 6:06:26 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: NYC-RepublicanCT

Keep your radar up today man. Wife is in city and I’m concerned.

i Was there for 9/11 but dont work in manhattan anymore.

Be careful folks.


30 posted on 09/19/2016 6:06:36 AM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: DaveA37

I’m pretty sure I saw wanted Dead or Alive.

At least that would be my testimony.


31 posted on 09/19/2016 6:07:39 AM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: KavMan
Chris Stirewalt says FOX doesn’t include the LATimes poll because they poll the same 3000 people over & over again

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that make the poll more stable and dependable? That's how Nielson has been doing it for decades with their TV ratings and they swear by that method. Advertisers evidently agree and pay ad rates accordingly.

So long as the "control" group is a true representation of overall demographics.

32 posted on 09/19/2016 6:11:03 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (It is a wise man who rules by the polls but it is a fool who is ruled by them)
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To: euram

“He’ll hit 50 or above after the first debate on the 26th.”....

I wouldn’t be too hasty in making such a prediction, the media fawns over Hitlary and despises Trump. Many who will not watch the debates will only read about it and THAT is where they will set the opinions. Clinton is a smooth but arrogant talker as she spews her bull sh&t, Trump on the other hand will throw it right in your face. My kind of guy!


33 posted on 09/19/2016 6:11:03 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: dp0622

Thanks. Commute was uneventful, with the exception of the area near Waldorf Hotel... Totally blocked off, with a large motorcade. No idea what was going on there.


34 posted on 09/19/2016 6:11:52 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: DaveA37

I believe the debates will set HUGE records... Like a train wreck - even if you don’t like either candidates, you HAVE to watch this.


35 posted on 09/19/2016 6:12:50 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: NYC-RepublicanCT

Get home safe too.

Getting memories of 9/11 rushing back.

Like a nightmare repeating.

I’ll throw prayers to the manhattan working folk today.


36 posted on 09/19/2016 6:13:25 AM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: NYC-RepublicanCT

I turned on “Good Morning, America” on ABC this morning, something I NEVER do but I did it today.

All the hosts.....Robin Roberts, George Stuffin’ Envelopes, etc....they all said they got the same alert on their phones this morning that you and dp0622 (post # 5) received.


37 posted on 09/19/2016 6:15:39 AM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (You can't spell TRIUMPH without TRUMP)
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To: SamAdams76
"So long as the "control" group is a true representation of overall demographics".

Totally agree... IF this is true

38 posted on 09/19/2016 6:16:46 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: dp0622

Thank you


39 posted on 09/19/2016 6:17:32 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!)
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To: RoosterRedux

Oopsie-Doodle!


40 posted on 09/19/2016 6:19:28 AM PDT by servo1969
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