Posted on 09/15/2016 4:42:17 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
With the first debate less than two weeks away, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race …
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
If NYT and CBS say it is tight, Trump must be ahead.
Will Hillary be well enough to appear in a debate? I doubt it. How will they spin that?
LOL. Propoganda, right out of "1984".
We’ve been told repeatedly that 3rd party candidates take more from Hillary than Trump, yet in a two way race HRCs +2 falls to even. Something isn’t right with this poll.
“Hillary +2 in four-way Hillary and Trump tie in two-way”
You got that backwards I think
I think all the polls are completely fake.
The two have been 3-5 points apart for months. And for months the race has been tightening. Everyone knows that Hillary is losing ground. Everyone knows Trump is surging. And after a number of months of this trajectory, they are still 3-5 point apart, just like they were in June.
It makes no sense.
There were originally 46 more RATs than Repubs.
After secret sauce, there were 58 more RATs than Repubs.
This is really not a good poll for Illary
Total Respondents 1,753
Total Registered Voters 1,433 weighted 1,314
Total Likely Voters 1,433 weighted 916
Republican Registered Voters 470 weighted 426
Democratic Registered Voters 516 weighted 484
Independent Registered Voters 447 weighted 405
If Johnson and Stein are on the ballots, why shouldn't they be included???
"This poll was conducted by telephone September 9-13, 2016 among a random sample of 1,753 adults nationwide, including 1,433 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones."
"The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone."
"Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers."
"The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables."
So 1.) It's a telephone survey, therefore not counting "shy" Trump supporters, and 2.) They needed to "fudge" the data.
My guess is that the LA Times more accurately reflects what is happening -- Trump is ahead, but not yet by more than the "margin of Democrat vote fraud".
“How will they spin that?”......
She will more than likely ask for, and of course be granted, the privilege to debate from her living room chair since she “suffers” so greatly from pneumonia (barf)..
She will have at her disposal, off screen advisors, be wearing two ear pieces and have a teleprompter within easy sight. Don’t tell me they haven’t got this all figured out far in advance of those debates.
Drudge posting Trump 6-point lead
Maybe Larry Middleman is available.
Thank you for the correction. Tied in four-way. Hillary +2 in two-way.
In looking at breakouts of other polls, I think Johnson provides an alternative to Hillary for the Never-Trump Republicans. Johnson supporters tend to be male, white, younger, and better-off income wise. I suppose that the younger Johnson supporters are more idealistic and maybe naive. But, as the choice becomes clear, some of the younger Johnson supporters and many of the older Johnson supporters will shift to Trump. Trump is running a magnificent general election campaign (just as he ran a magnificent primary campaign). Although he has an enormous financial disadvantage, and is burdened by some of the things he did (and maybe had to do) to win the primaries, he is now even-up or close to that in the polls. I should hope that - with the success of Trump’s general election campaign - Republicans who have been coy about supporting Trump will get on board the Trump Train.
Sorry. Hillary is down at least 3 in 4 way and 5 or more in head to head.
Gas lighting and push polling
Drudge headline, in RED, shows trump up 6%.
“Will Hillary be well enough to appear in a debate? I doubt it. How will they spin that?”
Mean man Trump making sick grandmother stand for 90 minutes. Why does Trump hate sick people? Why does Trump hate women?Why does Trump hate old people? How can any of you rubes vote for this future Hitler??!?!?!
That’s how.
Regarding “weighting” of results:
My inclination is to weight the sample BEFORE applying the likely voter screen. THEN, use the likely voter screen to forecast the turnout model.
I think many polls weights AFTER the likely voter screen to create a 2012 turnout model. Turnout is one of the things you’re trying to forecast. Polls are showing Trump supporters have greater enthusiasm. This should translate into turnout. The 2012 turnout model will not be replicated.
Up to now, I’ve also been concerned about the deviation of live-caller from automated-caller and internet-based surveys. With Trump’s magnificent general election campaign, I now wonder what has been happening to that difference. I suspect more and more Trump supporters are opening up about their support.
36 D
32 R
32 I
That’s a really big number of Independents. Unlikely that percentage of Independents actually represents any actual voting sample which is what a poll is supposed to do.
Trump must be far ahead
Imagine the gnashing of teeth behind closed doors: The Media and the Dems have thrown EVERYTHING they have at Trump yet he still keeps coming like Jason Voorhees.
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