Posted on 09/09/2016 12:37:49 PM PDT by scouter
I have followed the last several presidential races on electoral-vote.com, and have found their commentary to be rather left-leaning, but their results to be fairly accurate.
For the last several days I've been comparing the current data with the data from about two weeks ago. There are some interesting findings. As of August 25, the totals were:
Trump: 191
Clinton: 332
Tied: 15
Today, the total is:
Trump: 244
Clinton: 294
Tied: 0
So two weeks ago, Trump needed to gain 79 electoral votes, and Clinton could afford to lose 62. Since then, Trump has gained 53 electoral votes (67% of those he needs), and Clinton has lost 38 (62% of those she can afford to lose).
There is a definite shift toward Trump in electoral votes, both in terms of actualized EVs (if you can call today's status "actualized," which you can't, since they won't truly be "actualized" until November 8--but I can't find a better word), and potential EVs. In the last two weeks, 228 electoral votes have shifted in one direction or the other, the vast majority in Trump's favor.
Put simply, a net 104 electoral votes moved in Trump's direction, as compared to two weeks ago.
Note also, the following:
| 25-Aug | 9-Sep | Net Loss/Gain | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly Dem | 231 | 164 | -67 |
| Likely Dem | 89 | 56 | -33 |
| Barely Dem | 12 | 74 | 62 |
| Exactly Tied | 15 | 0 | -15 |
| Barely GOP | 41 | 89 | 48 |
| Likely GOP | 55 | 30 | -25 |
| Strongly GOP | 95 | 125 | 30 |
Clinton lost big in both the "strong" and "likely" categories, and gained huge in the "barely" category. Taken together and with the fact that she lost 38 EVs, this represents a major weakening of her base support.
On the other hand, Trump gained 38 EVs and gained in the "barely" and "strong" categories, and lost EVs in the "likely" category. This is because some of Clinton's support became his, and a significant amount of the support he already had became stronger.
North Carolina (15 EVs), Colorado (9 EVs), and Rhode Island (4 EVs) are all barely Democrat, with Trump being within 3% of Clinton. If he can gain all three of those states, while keeping the ones that are currently his, he will have 272 EVs, and will win the election.
Michigan (16 EVs), Nevada (6 EVs), New Jersey (14 EVs), and Wisconsin (10 EVs) are all barely Democrat, within 4%. So there are 74 additional EVs within reasonable striking distance for Trump. That being said, there are 89 additional EVs within reasonable striking distance of Clinton. But the momentum is clearly in Trump's direction.
Here's the detailed data on each state that shifted support in one direction or the other over the last two weeks. Positive number reflect movement toward Trump, and negative numbers represent movement toward Clinton.
| State | 25-Aug | 8-Sep | Electoral Votes | Moving towards Trump (All) |
Moving towards Trump (Currently Rep) |
Moving towards Trump (Currently Dem) |
Moving towards Trump (Currently Tied) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Likely Republican | Strongly Republican | 38 | 38 | 38 | ||
| Mississippi | Barely Republican | Strongly Republican | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Alaska | Strongly Republican | Likely Republican | 3 | -3 | -3 | ||
| Arkansas | Strongly Republican | Likely Republican | 6 | -6 | -6 | ||
| Utah | Strongly Republican | Likely Republican | 6 | -6 | -6 | ||
| Nebraska | Strongly Republican | Likely Republican | 5 | -5 | -5 | ||
| Missouri | Barely Republican | Likely Republican | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Arizona | Likely Republican | Barely Republican | 11 | -11 | -11 | ||
| Florida | Likely Democrat | Barely Republican | 29 | 29 | 29 | ||
| Iowa | Barely Democrat | Barely Republican | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Ohio | Likely Democrat | Barely Republican | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||
| North Carolina | Tied | Barely Democrat | 15 | -15 | -15 | ||
| Wisconsin | Likely Democrat | Barely Democrat | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| New Jersey | Strongly Democrat | Barely Democrat | 14 | 14 | 14 | ||
| Colorado | Strongly Democrat | Barely Democrat | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||
| Rhode Island | Strongly Democrat | Barely Democrat | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Minnesota | Strongly Democrat | Likely Democrat | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Virginia | Strongly Democrat | Likely Democrat | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||
| Maine | Strongly Democrat | Likely Democrat | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| New Hampshire | Strongly Democrat | Likely Democrat | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Connecticut | Likely Democrat | Strongly Democrat | 7 | -7 | -7 | ||
| Totals | 228 | 122 | 76 | 46 |
Don’t forget about Trump leading in Maine 1, that one EV “might” be significant if the race is close.
Good job on this. However, have the Dem cheating votes been factored in. I believe the honest votes will go for Trump, but the cheating will tip the scales unless the Trump voters come out like never before.
It will take a massive WW11 type of effort to win over Hillary’s votes, which will encompass the massive cheating, the commie vote, and the stupidity vote.
Plus, Obama is working underground with his community organizing skills to get out the urban and hastily signed up immigrant voters to register and vote. He will provide transportation and goodies to get them to the polls.
Excellent analysis! Thanks for sharing.
Great analysis. Look at the Scott Adam’s column today where he thinks 3% of electorate is “quiet Trump” which means in your analysis Trump is already at 271 or 2.
great work scouter.
look forward to any updates.
Thank you for your service Sir
The trend is our friend.
Good job on posting this.
Thanks!
When the properly move 2 of these 3 WI, MI and NC to the R column, which I fully expect all 3 will be Red on election day.. its over for Hillary, Trump is passing 270 and not looking back.. PA also will most likely be Red... after that look for the new england states to start to fall.
VA may stay blue thanks to NOVA.. but no way NC is going blue.. wishful thinking...
Soros and voting machine momentum are all toward the Democrats and their vote manipulation staff.
Nice work. I hope you’re right.
I don’t think his community organizer skills are worth 2 cents right now
Even they don’t believe his BS anymore
And some (either vocally or secretly) like Trump’s message
They voted for the magical negro, twice, and got more failing schools, more poverty, more unemployment, more crime and more radicals destroying their neighborhoods (for their own “good” according to Obama)
So why not vote Trump? What do they have to lose?
EV bookmark
Great work. Porn for political junkie geeks. I noticed Pennsylvania wasn’t mentioned? Do you not think it is in play?
OK, just looked at the map again. Assuming Trump holds all the Romney states - which is more than do-able (I don’t buy the hooey about Georgia and Arizona being “toss ups”) - Trump will need to:
1. Win Florida and Ohio - 47 electoral votes
2. Take Nevada - 6 electoral votes
3. Take Iowa - 6 electoral votes
4. Take Arizona - 5 electoral votes
That takes him to 269 electoral votes total. So that gives him multiple paths, which can be:
1. Take one electoral vote in Maine (split vote state)
2. Take Colorado (9)
3. Take New Hampshire (4)
4. Take PA (20)
Hard but nowhere impossible. Just finish strong!
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