Here's what we got:
It's been level for a couple years now. These are the realities we need to deal w/ when we try to understand that half the U.S. does not agree w/ us.
Posted on 08/26/2016 3:43:31 AM PDT by expat_panama
One of the economy's bright spots is the job market - and it may be even brighter than it seems. Not only are there more jobs (1.3 million so far in 2016), but they may be better-paying, according to a new analysis by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Fed economists report that middle-wage workers - earning roughly $30,000 to $60,000 - represent the fastest growing segment of the labor market. By contrast, earlier in the recovery, low-wage and high-wage jobs dominated employment increases.
The labor market was supposedly becoming economically "polarized," just as society was becoming politically polarized. Now, the new analysis suggests that the labor-market polarization "may have peaked, and middle-wage jobs could be ready for a renaissance," as my Washington Post colleague Ylan Q. Mui wrote in a nice blog post on the New York Fed study.
Assuming that the trend lasts through Election Day, it's probably a plus for Hillary Clinton. It doesn't eliminate jobs as an issue, but it blunts discontent. Here's what the New York Fed study reported.
Although middle-wage occupations represent about half of all jobs - teachers, factory workers, truck drivers, construction workers - they accounted for only 22% of new jobs between 2010 and 2013. Lower-wage occupations - earning $30,000 or less as fast-food workers, sales clerks, janitors - accounted for 40% of new jobs, well above their 30% share of existing employment. And high-paying occupations - with median wages of $60,000 or more, earned by doctors, lawyers, managers and engineers - represented 38% of new jobs, despite being only 20% of existing jobs.
Between 2013 and 2015, this pattern reversed, say the New York Fed economists. In these years, middle-wage jobs accounted for 43% of expanded employment, lower-wage occupations for 30%, and high-wage occupations for 28%.
Just what caused the shift is unclear. Economist Harry Holzer of Georgetown University attributes much of the change to the business cycle. "In the early years, there was a lot of uncertainty. Business leaders didn't know whether the recovery would continue. Many resisted assuming the added costs of more expensive employees," he says. (Presumably, the highest-paid workers had skills more in demand.) Construction also recovered slowly, he said, frustrating middle-wage job growth in that sector.
With the recovery now in its eighth year, confidence and hiring have strengthened, he said. Between 2013 and 2015, blue-collar jobs rose sharply. Employment increased 400,000 in construction, 300,000 in manufacturing, 500,000 in transportation (mainly truck drivers) and 250,000 in installation and repair (of, say, air conditioning systems).
It's unclear whether these gains are temporary or whether they signal a decisive turn in job creation. If permanent, said The New York Times, "it may soon be time to retire a familiar criticism of the long but lackluster economic rebound ... (that it has promoted) the hollowing out of the American middle class."
What's happening, Holzer said, is that middle-wage jobs have become split. There's what he calls "the old middle" of factory workers, construction workers and the rest. These jobs are declining over time. But there's also a "new middle" of jobs - health care technicians, high-tech maintenance workers, paralegals, and store managers - that's growing rapidly. These jobs require more formal education than "old middle" jobs. The question, Holzer said, is whether the country can remake its education system to provide the skills that the economy now demands.
And now a reality check from Virginia. Our governor is announcing a $1.5 billion budget shortfall for the current year. The reason? Significant shortage in withholding tax revenue. Yet, the statewide unemployment rate is under 4%. The Governor makes announcements about new jobs almost daily. So, how do you square these two? Stagnant wages, FT jobs being replaced with PT jobs, influx of illegals putting downward pressure on wages.
No, all is not unicorns and rainbows.
expat_panama wrote “—and would we really opt for a win for politics first.”
Yes, I would opt for a win for politics first, over anemic and perhaps, economic numbers like this. Even assuming the numbers are completely accurate, the slight growth shown here can’t be sustained in a Lib dominated world. And that’s what will happen in November without a lot of work.
The left parades articles like these every four years about this time when they are the incumbents. If conservatives are in power, the academic mill churns out article after article about the sky falling.
People on Free Republic have watched this like clockwork and are right to attack them.
Oldplayer
Here's what we got:
It's been level for a couple years now. These are the realities we need to deal w/ when we try to understand that half the U.S. does not agree w/ us.
...I would opt for a win for politics first...
A lot of folks feel that way and somehow it seems to me a bit well, unhealthy. Like, disfunctional. Maybe it's a guy thing, that my feeding my family has to be much higher up on my "to-do" list.
Due to inflation 30k to 60k ain’t what used to be. Plug ‘em into an inflation calculator and see.
Let's keep in mind the fact that the price of a gallon of gasoline is about half what it was eight years ago.
I would steal if necessary to feed my family. But when I read articles like this during election season, I am skeptical. They are wholly politicized, even if there is some truth in the underlying information.
I call this a BS article based on BS Gov. data. If there are any significant gains they will be in Gov. and Healthcare. Both of which just squeeze more money out of the middle class. How does that help when both segments need to be torn to the ground and start over.
It's just that ten years ago, those used to be $60,000 to $90,000 jobs. :)
Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
And who is getting these jobs? Immigrants are taking the jobs and depressing wages. We have a labor surplus, which is why annual household incomes have declined. And we have growing numbers of those out of the labor force.
How do you explain record numbers of people on food stamps? You underestimate the other side’s capacity for data manipulation and lying. People unemployed don’t even count as unemployed.
The average cost of a gallon of gas (across the US) when Obama took office was $1.86. While there are/were a few selected places that got lower, I personally have ever been able to achieve that low of a price since then. Go look it up.
What makes you think they're not doing the same thing now?
There are always “bright spots” in the economy if you are willing to look for them.
A severe recession = a Golden Age for the repo business.
Rah rah rah! More cheer leading mediocrity.
“No, I do not respect you. You spend far too much time here.”
lol...
Yeah, just came out at 1.1 for Q2 as ex
pected.
Sounds like you're saying this is bad, after all this level of increase is less than the previous decade which was less than the decade before (long range here).
At the same time half the voters prefer 'mediocrity' coming out of O's two terms over what we had coming out of W's two terms. The point being that we either see what is or we're delusional.
That and the fact that the article is about a resurgence of mid-income jobs, not GDP.
Do you even read the articles you link to? Try this one:
There’s No Recovery for Central Bankers to Create
Let's keep in mind the fact that the price of a gallon of gasoline is about half what it was eight years ago.
when Obama took office was $1.86.
If we're changing the subject to politics then the price of gas was $1.68/gal a month before O took office compared to July '08 at $4.10/gal when O was running for office, but what you'd brought up was inflation, not politics. This is hard to follow because the article doesn't mention 'inflation'. You jumping in and out of here from some other thread I don't know about or something?
Realclear... has become a progressive joke.
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