Are Hillary Clinton’s Strong Poll Numbers Misleading?

The Nation ^ | 8/8/2016 | Jon Wiener

[Redwood71]

Yep. The polls in their construction are misleading, the media interpretation is misleading, and their use by the politicians and talking heads is misleading. Only thing left is the voters and they voted for Trump. And in many cases, for some politicians, on both sides of the fence, that is misleading as they are too crooked or just plain stupid to get it.

red

[goldstategop]

The polls are dead on accurate, even allowing for bias.

Freepers want to ignore the fact Hillary is likely to win because more people prefer her as President.

If Trump doesn’t turn his decline around, we shouldn’t be surprised at what happens on November 8.

We like to think our guy has a chance but you can’t explain away bad news by saying pollsters methodology is flawed or some other comforting excuse.

Right now, Trump won’t win. Its a fact and there’s no arguing with it.

[DoughtyOne]

At this point, Hillary can't seem to pull more than 50 people together at one time.

Trump can't seem to draw under 5,000 people.


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[Robert A Cook PE]

That’s the “other half” of the constant 24-hour-7 day a week barrage of Hillary press from her ABCNNBCBS national press corpse: To drive DOWN any POTENTIAL trump voters to depression and misery, and to DRIVE UP any potential Hillary voters that THEY keep up their faith and their money.

[goldstategop]

We’ll see in October if there is a turnaround.

But you can’t really argue with USC/Dornslife unless you want say Trump has hidden support. That may or may not be true.

With all the problems Hillary has, she should be far worse off but the race is still hers to lose.

[goldstategop]

Trump will never win CA.

He’s not going to campaign there and a candidate has limited time and resources.

Sure, some people are not going to vote at all this year.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Look at this graph of the entire race from real clear politics:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

You can clearly see that for the entire race Hillary has been stuck at 41 and Trump at 38, except right around the conventions where the numbers moved a bit in each’s direction until reverting right back to where they were before.

Yes, anyone can pick apart an individual poll.

But the BIG picture shows Clinton with a consistent 3 point lead or so.

So if Clinton is leading Trump consistently by 3 or so, why am I so confident Trump will win?

Because 41+38= 79

There is a missing 21 !!!!

Does ANYONE really believe that the two 3rd party candidates are going to get a combined 21% ? 15% ? 10%? heck! they'd be lucky to get 5% on a good day COMBINED.

So... lets just for the sake of argument give the two 3rd party candidates 5% combined.

That leaves a missing 16%.

Does anyone believe that there is ANYONE in the world that is “undecided” about Hillary Clinton? Because I sure as heck don't !

Which means that 16% are either:

1. undecided about TRUMP
2. are for Trump but wont admit it to a pollster (or anyone else for that matter)

I believe the Trump is a mixture of both 1 and 2.

And like you I believe that those who are currently undecided about Trump will ultimately decide after the debates in October.

After the debates one of three things will happen:

Hillary's numbers will move up into the high 40’s consistently - this will indicate a close race and probable Hillary win.

Hillary's numbers will move up into the low 50’s consistently - this will indicate a blowout for Hillary.

or Trumps numbers will move up into the mid to high 40’s - this will indicate a Trump blowout. Because Trump will NEVER poll above 50% consistently because of the fear of those being polled of being judged negatively which I believe is skewing the polls 3-5 points.

[goldstategop]

Every one of those scenarios is valid.

We live in a liberal culture and that favors Hillary as reflected in the polls.

Maybe some major event or a strong Trump showing in the debates will move the numbers his way.

Right now everything tells us Hillary is our next Prez.

Sure you don’t like the polls and none of us do but that is where things stand at the moment.

[drypowder]

in order for vote fraud to go unchallenged the polls have to show the plausible outcome of an election. Both are rigged.

[goldstategop]

I’ve said on here, if its close Hillary can and will win.

Vote fraud is part of it but her base will turn out if she can put it away.

We made the mistake of thinking in 2012 Mitt had more support than he really did.

We can’t claim Trump has support that doesn’t exist.

[TexasFreeper2009]

I have been following elections for 30+ years and I know that when an incumbent is polling less than 50% they are in big trouble.

And for all intents and purposes Hillary is the incumbent.

There is a reason this. The incumbent is a KNOWN quantity. People have already made up their minds about them.

Ignore the fact that this is Hillary vs Trump, and pretend instead this is an incumbent who is polling in the low 40’s running against a relative unknown who is polling in the high 30’s with no credible 3rd party candidate 2 months out from election day with all the debates still to come.

History shows that an incumbent in such a position usually loses. Because people have already made up their mind about them.

[TexasFreeper2009]

I never thought Mitt OR McCain had ANY support.

I personally voted for both, but felt like throwing up afterwards.

[Phlap]

We can only hope. The DBM are doing their best to get her elected.

[Phlap]

... we wonder how many men will refuse to vote for Hillary because she’s a woman. ...

She is a woman but she is no lady.

[sheana]

And that is it. She has 240 electoral votes locked up. She can easily win. Polls schmolls. They don’t mean much.

[webstersII]

The polls already have turned around since the Democrat convention (with exception of Reuters, which changed their methodology to favor Hillary). Trump is even leading in the L. A. Times poll.

[HotHunt]

"...Right now, Trump won't win. It's a fact and there's no arguing it...."

And where exactly can we find these "facts" you speak of? From the media who is trashing Trump non-stop and propping up that lying health-risk, hilLIARy? Or from some other "objective" source that only you know the whereabouts of?

To say that "there is no arguing it," you're implying that the "debate" is over, much like Al Gore does when he wants to avoid discussing whether climate change is real or not.

You may well be correct in your analysis but none of us, including you, will know that for sure until the votes are counted in November or December or however long it takes to arrive at a winner. But I say you are just succumbing to the rants and raves of the Leftist media telling us that the race is already won and we should just lie down and accept it.

I say BS to them and to you.

[combat_boots]

Demoralization is key to the election. Key.

[HotHunt]

Geez, this is The Nation.

Katrina I-Hate-America-And-Love-Communism vanden Heuvel's empire. Besides being the editor of this communist rag, she is also a frequent commentator on ABC, as well as on MSNBC, CNN and PBS. Her articles have appeared in The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times and The Boston Globe. All known Leftist supporters and promoters.

I should have known better....

[AngelesCrestHighway]

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