Posted on 08/24/2016 7:01:24 AM PDT by IVAXMAN
It’s shocking that he’s not winning.
I think we’re actually in agreement. The common ground is that the method almost guarantees wide swings. Those wide swings are not from changes in opinion, but from the technique. There’s your manipulation. Last week, everybody on Fox was citing a poll where Trump got 1% black support. None of them read the small print on the screen that showed a 9.5% MOE.
With your solid credentials, maybe you could explain to the unwashed what the MOE is for a sample size of 50. As a bonus, you could then show them that with such a small sample, that a 4% and a 14% result are not inconsistent with zero change in opinion. Many have no clue and are almost as uninformed as the media.
Ignore the polls folks!
That’s a pretty big swing in such a short time. I don’t know if these polls are very accurate, but let’s suppose for the sake of argument that they are. If so, I would guess that a fairly substantial percentage of black voters, maybe about 10 percent, are on the fence, teetering between Trump and Clinton. If this is the case, it is mostly good news for Trump, because usually the black vote is about 95% rock solid democrat. And if Trump is persuasive enough to have some sway on these 10% of fence sitters, then he’s probably not far from persuading a few percent beyond that.
The trip to LA late last week helped the Donald.
Even scientific polling isn’t perfect and we have to realize that media prism still affects things. One thing that could be hurting him with some men and blacks is the appearance of a softening on immigration. When Trump starts doing things that makes him look like a regular politician it disheartens some of those marginal usually disenchanted voters that are invested in him as not being one.
I think he will recover. The debates are ahead. His advertising is just now picking up and his ground organizations are mobilizing. Also Clinton is quickly reaching the end of her rope with a media that is already way out on a limb with her. There is a huge chance that other shoes will drop on her. She’s trying to run out the clock. That is never a good strategy and gives Trump a huge opening for a comeback.
There is ONE day of polling that drove the 7 day average from 4 to 14. That one sample was in the mix for exactly 7 days, then fell off.
I’m calling BS on that black vote number. They are flat-out lying. No way it falls off that fast.
FirstFlaBn Thank you for explaining your thoughts in more detail. I totally agree with you. And I do need to be a bit more careful when I post, I did not even put the totals for both in the heading. I don’t post very often and have been a member since 2000. My apologies if I came across brash to you sir. )
The truth is.
Both Hillary and Trump are stuck in the low 40’s nearly everywhere.
The difference is: For Hillary it is a ceiling, For Trump it’s a floor.
The remaining people Trump needs to win are currently parked temporarily with the libertarian candidate.
Yes,, i forgot about the day that falls off !!!!
I think the sample size may be 50 ish but I did not think about that it is actually a 2 day effect, day you add, day you drop. Very good point.
Is this California only? Then it’s big trouble for Hillary.
No, I trust this poll. I have said for some time it’s a 1-2 point race.
What no one can measure or predict is turnout. Cankles can be up 2 but if 3 % more Trump voters show up, she’s behind. Keep an eye on voter registrations in FL, IA, PA, and, as far as possible, OH (which is nearly impossible because of OH’s weird practice of moving people into “I” status if they don’t vote in the last primary.)
Just confusing how it’s this close
US poll
On their website is a link to the survey methods that details it.
This is interesting. Nate Silver comes out yesterday criticizing the LA times poll for daring to have Trump in the lead and presto his lead vanishes.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
I think you give them too much credit.
Its not intentional influence, its a lousy poll.
Basing the entire black population of 35-40 million on a rolling number of 350 phone calls is not going to come close to being representative.
Its how statistics work.
You can say that the entire population is represented by a group of 1,200 or so. But you cannot divide that group up and make conclusions unless THAT subgroup is representative. Does that make sense?
Maybe it isn’t. If the enthusiasm meets registration, polling on 2012 numbers is meaningless.
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