Posted on 08/19/2016 3:33:03 PM PDT by oblomov
Donald Trump received one of his better polling results on Thursday — at least since the conventions. The highly regarded Pew Research Center released a survey showing Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 41 percent to 37 percent, with Gary Johnson at 10 percent and Jill Stein at 4. Consequently, Clinton’s chances of winning the election dropped 2 points in both our forecasts, to 86 percent in polls-only and to 76 percent in polls-plus.
The fact that a 4-point deficit is a “good” result for Trump should give you a sense for how poorly he’s doing. Clinton remains a clear favorite to win the White House. There was, however, another interesting bit of info in the Pew poll: The youngest voters in the electorate don’t seem very enamored with the major-party candidates.
Clinton led Trump 38 percent to 27 percent among 18- to 29-year-olds, with Johnson at 19 percent and Stein at 9 percent, according to Pew. That is, Clinton was winning a smaller share of under-30 voters than she was of voters overall. That’s unusual, and normally, I wouldn’t pay much attention to such a result because the margin of error on subgroups (especially younger voters, who are more difficult to reach in a poll) is large. But Pew’s finding is fairly consistent with other surveys since the conventions.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Is this the tattoo and body-piercings demographic?
Well lets see after today with Trump having visited the Bayou state how the polls respond next week.
I am hoping one of our nieces stays home. Cinton supporter who, although intelligent, cannot drive and has never held a job. She’s 22.
Ooof! Future government recipient!
This is bad news for Clinton. Young voters always go for the Dems. So if they bleed off to Johnson or Stein. Good.
And I love the spin from the writer. Trump basically within the margin of error in what he refers to as the “highly regarded” Pew poll. But somehow it shows how bad his campaign is doing.
Bull and Baloney!!!
She can’t be intelligent if she supports Clinton.
Afraid so. Of what little $$ we leave after we pass she will get $1.
I am finding this not to be true for Trump in VA.
Of what little $$ we leave after we pass she will get $1.
Instead, I would leave her an “I’m with her” bumper sticker.
Clueless know-it-alls!
They may be setting the stage for putting Johnson in the debates.
There was that one poll a few weeks ago that threw out the 3rd party vote when they thought it was too high....it benefitted Hillary....
I’ll be shocked if Johnson actually gets 10%.
My understanding is, he must get at least 14% to be included in the debates.
Please, take no offense.
Because she's surely as dumb as a post and likely weak of character based on that statement alone.
You could always try to love her out of it?
Make sure you have a disinheritment clause: “For reasons personal to me, I make no provision for .....” or however your state requires that it must be done.
I should have said she got good grades in school. LOL I think Girl Scouts messed her up as her parents are conservative-ish. Until she pays bills and taxes she will remain clueless.
With Bernie Sanders out of the picture, and college students now returning to campus, I think we’ll see efforts at colleges and universities start gearing up to support Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.
This generation is the reason we have to get the Mexicans in to do the hard work
FiveThirtyEight is a wishful thinking commie website:
A trio of political data experts empanelled by FiveThirtyEight for a podcast earlier this month estimated Trump’s chances of snagging the (Republican) nomination at 2%, 0% and minus-10%, respectively.
“If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong,” Larry Sabato, head of the center for politics at the University of Virginia, wrote last week...”
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