Opinion: Six myths about the U.S. economy that are just plain wrong [WAGES & GROWTH UP, DEBT DOWN]

Market Watch ^ | Aug 18, 2016 10:56 a.m. ET | Michael Brush

[expat_panama]

1. The economy is merely “trudging along” at stall speed, so stocks are vulnerable

This misperception is forgivable, given that U.S. GDP growth came in at around 1% for the first and second quarters.

But to really understand the economy, you have to drill down on a lot more numbers than just GDP. And when you do so, the weak GDP numbers seem fishy. They just don’t jibe...

* Employment growth is strong ...

* Loan growth is robust...

* Wage growth is solid.

* Consumer spending is strong...

The upshot? “Concern over the economy’s performance is running high, but it is misplaced...

2. No one has gotten a raise in several decades

Donald Trump loves this one...

But there’s just one little problem here. The “stagnant wage” claim is just not true...

3. People are angry and worried about the sluggish economy, so they support Trump...

...If people are bitter and worried about the economy, they sure don’t show it in their spending habits...

4. We are a nation that’s drowning in debt

There’s little doubt this is true for the federal government. But be skeptical of anyone who extends this concept to the private sector...

5. Low oil prices devastated the oil patch, hurting jobs growth overall

This was one of the fears when oil prices tanked. But this fear has not played out...

6. Technology helps us get more done at work ...dvances in technology make it easier to goof off than... ...the economy is near full employment and it’s harder to fill jobs.

But one caveat is in order: The first year of a presidential term often brings a recession, especially when the party in power changes. So if Trump catches up to Clinton and wins in November, look out.

[expat_panama]

The info here only makes sense from a business point of view and of course from a political standpoint all this stuff is wrong. On the one side we only got purchase records and bank balances to go on but with politcs there's the huge advantage of saying "WE'RE RIGHT AND YOU'RE WRONG".

[Resettozero]

As long as Treasury keeps printing and mailing those checks and/or depositing them directly in personal accounts, the system is fine fine fine.

[Forty-Niner]

“The first year of a presidential term often brings a recession, especially when the party in power changes. So if Trump catches up to Clinton and wins in November, look out.”

The US is on an eight year Business cycle which coincides with our election years.....There is no causal relationship as implied....We’re due for a recession (market correction) late this year or next no matter who is elected.

[Lee'sGhost]

Almost every bit of this is the truth, in the same way looking at yourself in a fun house mirror is the truth in warped fashion.

Just one example:

2. No one has gotten a raise in several decades

Donald Trump loves this one... (which reveals the whole purpose of this nonsense.)

But there’s just one little problem here. The “stagnant wage” claim is just not true...

Notice all the source referencing and documentation. No need for silly stuff like that. Just take the author’s word for it.

[expat_panama]

IT'S FRIDAY!!!!!   That's about it, nothing else is happening.  Stocks came up a couple tenths of a % in fading volume while precious metals continued to grind sideways.

The futures trading heatmap has metals strong and stocks even, although these other futures stock index contracts are a lot less upbeat.

No econ reports, but we still got this:

Nightmare on Main Street:Housing Has Not Been Reformed - Economist
Trump Is a Bigger Global Threat Than Brexit - Tim Wallace, The Telegraph
A Facebook Dollar, and a Return to Gold Money - Editorial, New York Sun
A New Approach to Monetary Policy Is Needed - Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg
Credentialed Experts Consistently Reveal Ineptitude - Jeffrey Snider,RCM
Most Important Financial Interview You've Never Read - Eric Nelson, SA
When Fewer Can Pursue Commerce, We're Worse Off - James Patterson
The IRS to Michael Phelps: 'You Didn't Win That' - Carey Wedler, FEE

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

Some say that last recession is still ongoing. The jobless at least say that. But I realize it could get a lot worse - again.

[expat_panama]

US is on an eight year Business cycle which coincides with our election years....

Maybe, but my take is that the econ is doing what it wants and the pundits get big bucks for saying the election matters.   I don't buy all the contrived mainstream talk about how Clinton created the econ boom, Bush wrecked it all, and O is just now cleaning up Bush's mess.  For me there's a lot more going on in business than just politics.

[expat_panama]

The “stagnant wage” claim is just not true...

Notice all the source referencing and documentation.

It depends on what the reader will accept.  Sure we got hard numbers--

--but then the reader says that all government numbers are lies as proven by these government numbers:

[dp0622]

So you’re saying you think the economy is doing well under obama, if I understand correctly.

[zek157]

I watch transportation numbers to see what is being shipped around the country and world. Baltic Dry has been bad for awhile. All forms of domestic shipping are also down along with orders for new trucks. CAT orders have also down for 44 consecutive months. "According to the company, in the latest month - just when China was supposed to be rebounding and the US recovery getting "stronger" - demand took another sharp leg lower, as follows: ◦North America machine sales down 20% after falling 12% in June ◦Asia/Pacific sales July down 7% after falling 7% in June ◦Latam sales July down 43% after falling 38% ◦EAME (Europe, Africa, Middle East) sales July down 13% after falling 4% This means that Caterpillar's rolling 3-month retail machine sales dropped by 19% in July vs the more modest 12% fall in June and May."

[cgbg]

At this rate all of the bank’s derivative exposure should be under control very soon...well, maybe before the sun burns out. ;-)

[bert]

I maintain that growth of 1% is in effect no growth. the numbers can be corrupted to show 1%. The President is a criminal and forces the 1%

The Obama economic numbers are of no value as indicators except to know they are fraudulent

Trump will be faced with producing good numbers that shoe that he caused the economy to fail his first day

[ravenwolf]

It is like all other issues, it depends on how you are looking at it.

If all any one is concerned about is to have money to go buy junk food and go back home and flop down in the bed or on the couch and stuff their mouth ( what does`nt fall on the carpet or in the bed ).

The reason there are jobs is because so many people are living on the taxes paid by the people who are working and why would they want a job if they can force the working people to take care of them so they can be free to go out and raise hell.

The Government is trillions of dollars in debt because they are spending money they do not have, they do not want to bring the manufacturing jobs back to the U.S because that would stifful their socialist agenda.

If the industry was like in the fifties people could take care of them selves and would not have any need to have the evils of socialism pushed down their throat.

But i regress, why would this conversation be taking place in America the land of the free if people were any dam good to begin with?

The answer of course is that a good percentage of the people in America are no damed good so socialism is good enough for them as they deserve no better.

[tbw2]

JOHN MAULDIN: The government has been dramatically understating inflation
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mauldin-government-understating-inflation-2016-5

When actual prices have gone up 1% more than inflation per year for 20 years, that slow to no wage growth equals a slow economic squeeze as prices rise faster than income - now 20% higher than they were a generation ago.

[rollo tomasi]

Hmm...21 States raised the minimum wage in 2014/several States/cities in 2015 and there was an influx of low paying jobs as well.

[Sequoyah101]

Much of this is just Bull Spit.

Wages are NOT growing, inflation is for things people need like food. The idiot who wrote this article needs to get out more or some.

The oil price collapse did devastate the oilfield. I’ve been in it for 40 years and this is the worst bust I’ve seen and I’ve seen plenty. You can shoot a cannon through just about any oilfield office or shop without any fear of hitting anyone.

Market watch, BS.

[Jack Hammer]

He seems to be ignoring the anecdotal evidence, which indicates overwhelmingly that the economy sucks.

[expat_panama]

"...you’re saying you think the economy is doing well..."

[glyptol]

Nothing like a little BS with breakfast.

Wages in the contract engineering/ design realm are effectively down. I see scant job listings that are not about half to a third of what they were even five years ago. I know many in the field above the age of 40 that have quit looking in that area. Companies do not pay expenses for short term contracts and do not pay travel or lodging which used to be common. They won’t pay overtime until 45-50 hours in.

And on and...

Of course you can get 2 or 3 bare bones part time jobs and have fun juggling that as each employer wants your undivided availability. But they each count as a “new job”

And on and on...

And if you are over 50 good luck.

[expat_panama]

He seems to be ignoring the anecdotal evidence, which indicates overwhelmingly that the economy sucks.

Then again there's a lot of anecdotal evidence that the econ's great.  Just the other day I heard from a freeper that had gotten a raise.

So there.