Posted on 08/11/2016 9:40:19 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
With fewer than 13 weeks to go before the November election, …
(Excerpt) Read more at suffolk.edu ...
Romney states + FL + OH + IA puts us within 10 of 269 (a tie in the Electoral College), with any number of ways to get to that number or above.
If Trump does well in the debate, he will win this thing. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise.
As Mark Steyn would say, within the Margin of Lawyer
That’s impressive.
Iowa was +6 for Baraq in 2012 and +9 in 2008.
Remember folks Trump hasn’t spent one cent on ads yet.
If Trump had a table taking contributions at these rallies, or even passed out cards with instructions on making donations, he could raise a couple of million dollars per week.
There’s no doubt that Iowa has been trending GOP for the last several years as has Maine. Two states that I think Trump can get this fall, especially Iowa.
Don’t forget that Dukakis also beat Bush 55%-45% in Iowa when he managed to win only nine other states and the DC, which is always a given for the party of big government.
I hope Trump is doing some serious training for the debates. He could run away and hide if he performs well. But he has little margin of error given the media factor.
Trump won’t prep too much. Not his style. Read his books and you will see he goes on feel and talking to people. He will not approach this like other candidates. That’s why he’s so much fun.
What’s Trump’s ceiling? Will Dems and their media repeat the same mistakes that doomed Trump’s Republican challengers? Seems they are already on track to do so. Clinton is the incumbent for all practical purposes. She is spending money like Jeb did, with a bit more success but her best is a virtual tie. If she is not panicking, she should be.
Last I checked it’s about 20% /s
This won’t be close.
After I saw the FIVE polls turn up for Trump (putting him within 2-3 among all five), I knew Cankles had shot her wad.
@SteveKingIA just said @HillaryClinton "outside of the press, outside of the public eye is someone I can work with."
Oversamples women by about 4, undersamples Ds by about 2, so probably pretty accurate.
Assuming PA is hopeless, where are the other 10? NV? WI? NM? CO? VA?
A couple weeks ago, Trump said he was going to study the 2008 Obama/Killary debates to take notes on how Obama won against her.
Assuming PA is hopeless, where are the other 10? NV? WI? NM? CO? VA?
that also assumes NC doesn’t go blue like in 2008; I don’t think so, but what do I know...PA and WI, along with MI, should be fertile ground for a populist, but it just doesn’t seem to be happening; wait and see, only August, debates yet to come, Hilary might become incompetent, who knows...
Ways to get 10 (or more) additional EVs (in addition to Romney states + FL + OH + IA):
NV (also looking good) + NH (recent polls not good) or ME (no recent polls)
WI (need some help)
CO (need some help) + ME-1
WI (need some help) or MN (need some help)
VA (need some help)
PA (recent polls not good)
This year, I think it’ll be the Democrats having to draw an inside straight if it’s close. But, as long as Trump does well in the debates, I think he’ll pick up a lot of the EVs listed above.
I am thinking that the moderators will be the biggest obstacle for Trump. They will do nothing but lob softballs to Hitlary all night and ask Trump why he doesn’t like babies.
“A couple weeks ago, Trump said he was going to study the 2008 Obama/Killary debates to take notes on how Obama won against her.”
Bad tactic. Obama won for one reason that all know and does not need rehashing at this point. Obama could have stripped naked and duckwalked on the stage and he still would have won.
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