Posted on 08/11/2016 5:56:23 AM PDT by Maelstorm
Is the air going out of Hillary Clinton’s post-convention bounce?
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows the Democratic nominee with 43% support to Donald Trump’s 40%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up eight percent (8%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Last week, the first weekly survey following the Democratic national convention, found Clinton with 44%, Trump at 40%, Johnson at six percent (6%) and Stein with three percent (3%). It was Clinton’s biggest lead over her Republican rival since June. Trump reached a high of 44% support in mid-July.
Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.
Johnson has nine percent (9%) GOP support, three percent (3%) of the Democratic vote and 15% of unaffiliated voters. Stein gets the votes of one percent (1%) of Republicans, one percent (1%) of Democrats and three percent (3%) of unaffiliateds.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]
President Obama last week denounced Trump as “unfit to serve” and “woefully unprepared to do this job.” Nearly half of voters agree, but they’re not so sure Clinton is up to the job either.
Clinton leads by 12 points among women, while Trump has a five-point advantage among men. The Democrat has a double-digit lead among those under 40. Trump is ahead only slightly among older voters.
Johnson runs best among men and younger voters.
Trump gets 20% black support to Clinton’s 72%. She also leads by 13 among other minority voters, while her GOP rival is ahead by six points among whites.
Clinton leads among those who work for the government, while private sector employees are evenly divided between the two major candidates.
The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.
Clinton and many other Democrats avoid using the term "radical Islamic terrorism" publicly because they believe it implicates all Muslims for the actions of extremists. Trump and many Republicans place high importance on the language, saying an enemy cannot be defeated if it is not identified by name. Sixty percent (60%) of voters continue to believe the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism.
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote earlier this year that the only person who can beat Trump is Trump himself, and so far voters think that's exactly what he's doing.
But GOP voters still prefer a party that’s more like Trump than one that’s more like House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest ranking Republican in Congress.
I wonder where the Gary Johnson support is coming from.
On no evidence other than gut, I’d be it’s from country club Republicans in Democratic states like California and New York, i.e., completely irrelevant to the Electoral College vote.
Exactly that... Trump has to have a greater than 5% lead among men... or else we need to “Clint Eastwood” some of that 47.5% of pu$$ies.
Most polls show Gary Johnson approaching 10% and Jill Stein approaching 5%. The popular vote winner may have the lowest percentage of the vote since Richard Nixon in 1968.
The debates are the next big game changer, barring some tremendous world event (9/11esque). That’s why they hid the debates as much as they could.
Hillary usually leads by over 95% for the black vote. for her to be at 80% is a sign she is losing. If Trump gets over 25% of the black vote Hillary is toast and I suspect Trump is already there.
Johnson has nine percent (9%) GOP support, three percent (3%) of the Democratic vote...
That #### Johnson.
Stein gets three from dems (i would strongly assume that almost all of her voters are dems and assorted freaks) so that’s only a net 3 from repubs. that johnson steals.
Have to get the yoot vote to go Stein more.
I wonder how much Johnson was paid or what he asked for in order to run.
johnson is costing trump a net -6 to hillary. that would provide the margin of victory for him.
libertarians. meh.
Libertarians are like Cruz: self-absorbed, unable to see the real world consequences of their actions, vainly imagining the purity of their thought is so special that real world be damned, their long shot fantasy is worth any sacrifice, even putting Hillary in office til 2020.
The most recent polls I’ve seen all show the total third party vote hurting CLINTON.
We may end up having Jill Stein to thank.
You have it bass ackwards, Catmom.
Johnson supporters need to consider how dangerous Hilllary is.
[I love cats too, BTW. Petting one who is on top of my PC between posts.]
Or do they expect Trump to wake up one day and endorse Johnson? “Hey, I’m down to 38%. Guess I’ll throw it in now and endorse Jehnson.”
God forbid he ever drops that low. But when it comes to crunch time I’m curious how many anti-Trumps are more interested in punishing him than in saving the USA from Hillary’s judges.
And Trump doesn’t restrict himself to debates. Even after it’s over, he tweets.
Hillary could make him flounder like a fish out of water, but then he tweats.
Debates are not the same anymore unless consultants bog you down.
Jill looks kinda sexy
You mentioned that in this poll, Trump has only a 5% advantage in this poll amongst men?
No freaking way. Maybe some hot-sounding babe asked “Do you like Hill... ary more?” And then with distate she adds, “Or Trump?”
Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls.
So intuitively, you have to think that the total third party vote (which is mostly Johnson) hurting Trump more than Clinton.
Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls.
So intuitively, you have to think that the total third party vote (which is mostly Johnson) hurting Trump more than Clinton.
Beck is making an all out effort to put Hillary in the White House and in charge of replacing 5 Supreme Court justices.
There will be excuses all over the place. When you have polls today with Hillary +1 and others with Hillary +12, someone is going to have egg on their faces. This doesn’t even count any late event (eg: email leaks, terrorist attack, etc). My point was that in each of the last 3 presidential elections, the polls had different “winners” in terms of accuracy so just looking at 2012 only seems silly.
>> Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls. <<
I think Gary Johnson really shot himself in the foot by picking big-government liberal RINO William Weld as his "Libertarian" running mate. I don't know any disgruntled conservatives who are considering Johnson after that move. Even the Paulbots seem to like Darrell Castle more than Johnson.
The Johnson/Weld ticket is to the left of Hillary on some social issues, the media is blabbing about some virtually non-existance Bernie Sander voters switching to Trump in the general. More likely, the ones who don't switch to Hillary will either stay home, vote for Jill Stein, or vote for Johnson -- in that order. I can see Johnson picking up a small chunk of Bernie voters in states where Stein isn't on the ballot and he's the only "Not Trump/Not Hillary" option on the ballot.
I still haven't met a single conservative voting for Johnson, but its pretty clear to me that Stein will draw the vast majority of disgruntled lefties, and Johnson will draw disgruntled voters from both parties, although his appeal will be limited.
In theory, Darrell Castle COULD unify the NeverTrump conservatives around his candidacy, but his campaign seems virtually non-existent because A) Nobody ever heard of him and he's getting ZERO media coverage, and B) He's not on the ballot in most states, and voters are unlikely to make the effort to write him in. Another disadvantage he is is that there's several other conservative third party candidates competing him with him, such as FR's own Tom Hoefling launching an independent bid. The Constitution Party had a golden opportunity to pick up disgruntled conservative Republicans this election cycle, but they're really dropped the ball.
“On no evidence other than gut, I’d be it’s from country club Republicans in Democratic states like California and New York, i.e., completely irrelevant to the Electoral College vote.”
I’d agree with that in large part.
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