White House Watch: Clinton 43%, Trump 40%, Johnson 8%, Stein 2%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com ^ | Thursday, August 11, 2016 | Rasmussen Reports

[Maelstorm]

Is the air going out of Hillary Clinton’s post-convention bounce?

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows the Democratic nominee with 43% support to Donald Trump’s 40%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up eight percent (8%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, the first weekly survey following the Democratic national convention, found Clinton with 44%, Trump at 40%, Johnson at six percent (6%) and Stein with three percent (3%). It was Clinton’s biggest lead over her Republican rival since June. Trump reached a high of 44% support in mid-July.

Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% - among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.

Johnson has nine percent (9%) GOP support, three percent (3%) of the Democratic vote and 15% of unaffiliated voters. Stein gets the votes of one percent (1%) of Republicans, one percent (1%) of Democrats and three percent (3%) of unaffiliateds.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]

President Obama last week denounced Trump as “unfit to serve” and “woefully unprepared to do this job.” Nearly half of voters agree, but they’re not so sure Clinton is up to the job either.

Clinton leads by 12 points among women, while Trump has a five-point advantage among men. The Democrat has a double-digit lead among those under 40. Trump is ahead only slightly among older voters.

Johnson runs best among men and younger voters.

Trump gets 20% black support to Clinton’s 72%. She also leads by 13 among other minority voters, while her GOP rival is ahead by six points among whites.

Clinton leads among those who work for the government, while private sector employees are evenly divided between the two major candidates.

The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.

Clinton and many other Democrats avoid using the term "radical Islamic terrorism" publicly because they believe it implicates all Muslims for the actions of extremists. Trump and many Republicans place high importance on the language, saying an enemy cannot be defeated if it is not identified by name. Sixty percent (60%) of voters continue to believe the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism.

Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote earlier this year that the only person who can beat Trump is Trump himself, and so far voters think that's exactly what he's doing.

But GOP voters still prefer a party that’s more like Trump than one that’s more like House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest ranking Republican in Congress.

[Maelstorm]

Hillary is coming down to earth. I expect state by state polls to start reflecting this shift. This is one of 3 polls where Hillary is leading Trump by low single digits so the trend is real.

[Catmom]

Trump needs to get his s*** together and stop losing voters to Johnson.

[stanne]

Trump is just getting started. She’s been running for, what? Since 1990?

[jimfree]

These are great numbers. Rasmussen was once regarded as the gold standard in polls.

[Hotlanta Mike]

It’s over for Madame Cankles. Not even the mighty mainstream media can push her over the top. The debates will seal the deal for The Donald.

[eekitsagreek]

This looks encouraging. Hillary’s bump is finally fading.

[mrs9x]

If Trump gets 20% of the African-American vote like in this poll, the election is over. Trump wins.

[Maelstorm]

Johnson is actually helping Trump more than hurting. Johnson is an open borders more lib than libertarian.

[CincyRichieRich]

Invalid poll, like all of them.

Did not name number of hang ups.

Tell me, are liberals who by nature are not scared of government sponsored repercussions, more inclined to participate in such polls? Without a doubt the answer is yes.

Those hang ups or even lying to the pollsters is unaccounted for.

Rush seemed the other day to just accept polls as true, and we’re just walking down same path as Romney. I disagree.

We, conservatives, fear the government and repercussions of speaking out more than ever...like over last say, 8 yrs?

Polling will not account for such tendencies.

This, polls are inaccurate.

I’m not an advocate of lying, but am one to hang up and I encourage you to, too.

Oh, what is stopping a pollster from misrepresenting you?

Kinda like us trusting Stephanopoulos to represent our side of an interview after we’ve stopped talking.

[Red Badger]

[Buckeye McFrog]

Throw McMuffin into the mix, and Hillary apparently plans to replicate her husband’s feat of becoming POTUS in a 42% plurality.

[Maelstorm]

I think Rasmussen and automated polls have an edge in this election especially since both candidates have high negatives. I always like to look at the down ticket races to help gage the reality. If the Senate candidate is doing winning its a good gage to suggest a real possibility that Trump really will outperform his poll number in the end. The truth is if Trump merely pushes up his GOP margin to parity with Hillary he’ll win. He also needs to keep his advantage with men in double digits.

[P.O.E.]

Glenn Beck: “I’m probably going to vote for Gary Johnson”

[jimfree]

Yes, I was putting Ras in past tense. 2012 was a bad year for many.

[KC_Conspirator]

Looks like the bleeding has stopped.

[gulf1609]

Did I see this poll used Internet and phone? I don’t know many who ever answer unknown phone calls. Not sure any polling can be correct. Check out this NBC news Internet poll with 70,000 respondents. Interesting what people will vote when they aren’t afraid of being shamed over the phone.

http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=32845

Be sure and click on the Poll Watcher link in article. DJT over 50% with 70,000 + respondents. HRC at 17%

[Wallace T.]

The one candidate that could siphon votes from Hillary Clinton is Jill Stein, the two-time Green Party Presidential nominee. She is, of course, a leftist, even more socialistic than Bernie Sanders. Her ability to siphon off Sanders' voters could be dangerous to the Democrats in states like Colorado and New Hampshire. Don't count on seeing much of her. The MSM is more likely to even publicize the Constitution Party than the Green Party.

Johnson and Weld, the Libertarian candidates for President and Vice President are not libertarian in the Murray Rothbard-Ron Paul sense. They are basically fiscally responsible, low tax liberals with an isolationist streak. As such, they appeal to RINOs and could hurt Trump in the precincts Kasich and Rubio carried. They will receive a level of publicity that no third party candidate since Ross Perot received.

[DrPretorius]

Rasmussen aggregates a bunch of bullshiite polls to come up with a bullshiite average. All of these push-polls are pure, unadulterated bullshiite at bottom and at the top.

[Blue Jays]

Excellent analysis, CincyRichieRich.
The vast, vast, vast number of pollsters work for leftist organizations.

Why would a conservative person allow their phone number (landline or cellular) to then become affiliated with their voting preference, approximate home location, approximate age, gender, education level, and household income?

There is a gigantic swell of decent, law-abiding, hardworking people who are tired of others not carrying their share of the load. That same group is weary of loudmouth shrieking leftists calling them names, ridiculing them, threatening their employment, vandalizing their property, and even physically attacking them.

That HUGE number of Americans quietly go about their daily lives and will walk barefoot over broken glass to eagerly cast their vote for Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton voters will fail to vote even if a new Pokemon Go monster interrupts them on their way to the polls on Election Day.

[TakebackGOP]

Gary Johnson is not going to get 8%. Ralph Nader got less than 3% in 2000, and he was more popular than Johnson. Pat Buchanan didn’t get half of one percent of the vote in 2000.