Posted on 08/09/2016 8:18:03 AM PDT by pb929
Here is the list of polls currently being counted in the RCP average along with the Clinton lead in each. I threw out the NBC News/SurveyMoney poll since it's not even a scientific poll.
Live Telephone Surveys
ABC News/WaPo: 8
IBD/TIPP: 7
McClatchy/Marist: 15
NBC News/WSJ: 9
Fox News: 10
CBS News: 6
CNN/ORC: 9
Avg: 9.1
Internet/Robo Surveys
LA Times/UNC: 2
Reuters/Ipsos: 4
Economist/YouGov: 3
Rasmussen: 4
Avg: 3.25
There is a theory floating around among some pollsters that there is a sizable hidden Trump vote which is revealed in automated (internet/robocall) polls, but remains hidden in live telephone interviewing, because some people won't admit they are going to vote for Trump to a live person at the other end of the phone. This simple breakdown of current polls seems to support the theory.
In 2012, the automated polls actually outperformed the live phone polls.
Telephone polls? There’s your problem. What percentage of the population still has a landline? It’s mostly mobile and those numbers are somewhat harder to get. People are much more protective of their cell numbers since they get charged whether they make the call or it’s an incoming call.
Dymphna on August 8, 2016 at 10:33 pm said: ..."Tell your realist to look at the social media and ignore the MSM polls. The latter are useless.
- Trump: 10,174,358 Likes
- Clinton: 5,385,959 Likes
Trump nearly doubles the amount of Likes than has Clinton Now — some people follow Trump who don’t like him, so let’s look at some posts. Here’s the stats for his latest Facebook live stream:
- Trump Live Stream Post — 21 hours ago: 135,000 likes, 18,167 shares, 1.5 million views
- Clinton Live Stream Post — 25 hours ago: 11,000 likes, 0 shares, 321,000 views
Since Clinton has zero shares, here’s the next best original post I could find from Clinton, albeit it’s not a live stream post:
- Clinton post — 30 hours ago: 22,000 Likes, 7241 Shares, 773,000 views
Any way you slice it, Trump is crushing Clinton on Facebook interaction. One quick note regarding Facebook — you’ll find that on almost half of Clinton FB posts, the top comments are from Trump supporters, whereas the the top comments on Trump’s page are hardcore supporters only.
- Trump: 10.6 million followers
- Hillary: 8.1 million followers
Trump has 30% more Twitter followers — and they translate into real votes. A recent study confirmed that 70% of his followers are real supporters, and 90% of those real followers have a voting history.
Hillary’s “twitter army” is likely made up of dead voters and illegals.
- Youtube Live Stream
- Trump: Averages 30,000 live viewers per stream
- Clinton: Averages 500 live viewers per stream
- Trump has 5900% more live viewers than Clinton.
- Trump: 2.2 million followers
- Clinton: 1.8 million followers
- Trump has 22% more Instagram followers — which is impressive considering it’s a liberal cesspool consisting of college hipsters who can’t seem to take enough selfies.
- Trump: 197,696 subscribers
- Hillary: 24,429 subscribers
- Hillary FOR PRISON: 55,228 subscribers
Hillary for Prison’s Reddit feed has more than double subscribers of Hillary’s reddit page, equating to Trump having 700% more Reddit subscribers.
Here’s the person who gathered up the stats:
- http://thetruthdivision.com/2016/08/spread-this-media-rigging-the-polls-hiding-this-evidence-proving-trump-is-winning/
Especially interesting is the fact that the Hillary for Prison reddit has so many followers.
I would liken this race to a battle that ebbs and flows, in which one side appears to be winning; but by the end of the day, the other side flanks them and victory is snatched from the jaws of defeat. this could be like the battle of Waterloo, which the French appeared to be winning until the Prussians arrived on the field and turned the tide. A French victory turned into a disorganized rout.
Of course, it could end with our side getting pummeled to death. I just think it is too early to say.
I believe most telephone polls today use a combination of landlines and cell numbers. They usually report this breakdown in the methodology at the end of the poll.
YEah, I try not to follow polls, whether encouraging nor discouraging, as I have no means to properly evaluate them. What’s the use of a poll if it takes you three days and three statisticians to tell you what it means?
“There should be little doubt that many of the polls are cooked.”
That may be the case but that’s not even my point. Even if all the polls listed are actually using good samples, there is about a 6 point discrepancy between live phone interview polls and internet/automated polls.
No one can say for sure that that means for the race, but given the amount of public shaming going on around Trump and his supporters, I think it’s perfectly reasonable that the automated polls more accurately reflect what will happen in the privacy of the voting booth.
The other big unknown which can’t be reflected in polling at this stage is who actually turns out.
“Telephone polls? There’s your problem. What percentage of the population still has a landline? It’s mostly mobile and those numbers are somewhat harder to get. People are much more protective of their cell numbers since they get charged whether they make the call or it’s an incoming call.”
That’s largely what Dennis Prager says and I agree.
If I don’t know the number, I don’t answer it.
Thanks for posting that.
I’d like to know if anyone on Freep has been called on their cell# for a poll. Cells are not protected anymore and I get junk/spam calls all the time.
In addition to not admitting one will vote for Trump, I’d submit many hang up on the pollsters. I am in the 2nd category, I hang up.
Add to these stats the photoshopping of Clinton events to make them look bigger.
Add still, the size of Trump rallies and the establishment attempts to use fire marshalls to limit their size.
Back in 2012, I gauged the public’s leanings by comments I saw on news site’s articles. They were overwhelmingly negative on Obama. For every ten negative comments you might find one that defended Obama or simply lashed childishly out at the other commenter’s intelligence, etc. I really thought that was a barometer for what was going to happen on election day. And I was miserably disappointed on election day.
Current polls show the race for President is much tighter than it really is. Ann Coulter warned us years ago in her best seller "Slander" that Democrats and the liberal media always use polls to manipulate and discourage conservatives from voting.
Thanks to social media there is more and more evidence that the polls are way off and if things stay as they are, Trump will win in a landslide!
It's evident Hillary has a hard time filling a Union Hall while Trump regularly turns people away from his stadium and arena venues.
Now this - Analysis from social media provides additional support that Trump is likely to win in a landslide.
So how bad is it?
Evidence from 'The Truth Division' shows that if you look at social media, Trump is killing Hillary!
Trump: 10,174,358 Likes Clinton: 5,385,959 Likes
Trump has nearly double the amount of 'Likes' that Clinton has!
When comparing recent 'live streams' on Facebook:
Trump Live Stream Post -- 135,000 likes, 18,167 shares, 1.5 million views Clinton Live Stream Post --11,000 likes, 0 shares, 321,000 views
Trump is crushing Clinton.
Trump: 10.6 million followers Hillary: 8.1 million followers
Trump has 30% more Twitter followers -- and they translate into real votesA recent study confirmed that 70% of his followers are real supporters, and 90% of those real followers have a voting history.
Who knows if Hillary followers are even real?
Youtube Live Stream
Trump: Averages 30,000 live viewers per stream
Clinton: Averages 500 live viewers per stream
Trump has 5900% more live viewers than Clinton. That?s plain devastation!
Trump: 2.2 million followers
Clinton: 1.8 million followers
Trump has 22% more Instagram followers.
Reddit
Trump: 197,696 subscribers
Hillary: 24,429 subscribers
Hillary for Prison: 55,228 subscribers
Hillary for Prison?s Reddit feed has more than double subscribers of Hillary?s Reddit page, equating to Trump having 700% more Reddit subscribers.
Hillary is proving that she is a terrible candidate. No one likes her and no one trusts her. Based on turnouts at campaign events and on social media, if the election were today? Trump would likely win in a Landslide!
how many folks don’t want to admit on a recorded phone interview who they are supporting for POTUS after conservatives were targeted by the IRS and information on conservatives is regularly published in newspapers, ie gun ownership etc.
What is preventing the person doing the phone polling from incorrectly recording the responses? I can’t believe that they do much quality control checking.
Anyone not donating to Trump and considering Donate to FR while they are at it are a big part of the problem - useful tools pretending they don't want Hillary in the WH - that makes them liars when they post their "concerns" on FR....
I got called on my cell by a poll hack for the WSJ/NBC poll last fall.
The rather rude guy got the demographic data and then hung up on me.
I feel certain that he filled out “my” answers for me
I was phone polled a few days ago and told them I had favorable opinions of Bill and Chelsea and that if the election was tomorrow I’d vote for Hillary.
Sun Tzu, really.
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