Posted on 08/06/2016 6:54:02 AM PDT by usafa92
No article just the link.
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
What nobody is talking about, and they eventually will be, is “The Enthusiasm Factor.”
So called “likely voters” are, at best, taken as percentages from (usually) the 2012 election. That will absolutely not apply for two reasons.
First, Trump supporters (such as myself) will crawl across broken glass to vote for him. I’ll go door to door knocking and giving rides to anyone with Trump enthusiasm to get them to the polls. And I ain’t alone. I changed my registration from independent to pubbie just to vote for Trump.
Second, other than the msm, NOBODY likes Hillary. Everyone voting for her will reluctantly go holding their nose. (Or coerced, but that’s normal—won’t skew the true likely voter %).
Look at their respective rallies. Compare and contrast the total primary voters for each party with 2012 estimates.
It will become (reluctantly) a familiar phrase: “The Enthusiasm Gap.” I would guess multiply 2012 % by 1.3 for Trump, and 0.8 for Hillary. But there are pollsters out there who can do a creative adjustment based on reality if they try. Maybe ask “one a 1-10 scale, how likely are you to vote?” or, “If they charged $ to vote, how much would you pay?” or something...
Hillary’s enthusiasm multiplier won’t go up much from where it is now. She has to open her mouth more eventually, and as Rush points out so brilliantly, every time she does, her polls go down.
Trump’s enthusiasm multiplier, on the other hand, will fluctuate but it is real and positive. The msm and turncoat pubs are doing what they can to kill Trump’s enthusiasm multiplier. That’s all they can do to stop him, and they are pulling out all stops.
Good analysis at your link.
Quote...
Hillary doesn’t have the heart of her party’s voters. Bernie Sanders did. And unfortunately for the Democrats, the heart of their party’s voters lost.
Trump, on the hand, is the heart of the party and beat the powerful interests groups trying to steal it from him and his record setting amount of voters.
The 538 folk claim that it does not because people lie about who they voted for President the last go-round, mainly because they want the world to think that they voted for the winner.
Ironically, I wouldn't be eligible for this poll because I refused to vote for Romney in 2012 and sat out. I am enthusiastically voting for Trump.
The debates will be two contestants playing by totally different rules, Trump in his attack mode and Clinton playing policy wonk and national grand mother. Unless Trump goes against his character he will show up with an arsenal of crooked hillary stuff and little if any display of understanding policy. In a contest without a moderator he could overwhelm Clinton, but the moderstors and panel and townhall will not allow this. If he tries to duel with Clinton on policies he gets beat, he really doesnt know enough. If he tries to focus on her crimes, he gets beat, either because the mods dont let him, or by his not following the rules he gives Clinton an out for future debates and the media tears into him for his “erratic” performance. Trump has a very very hard road to victory in November.
All of that is well and good but how many males and how many females are part of this poll? That’s a basic question.
Excuse me. That is “USC turned down for Trump, NOT as I predicted.” But Trump continues to hold in the adjusted poll, not moving much. His high on 7/26 was 47.5%, now he’s at 44.4.
I expect Cankles to flatten out any moment and Trump to begin slowly pushing up again.
BTW, there is an error in the Longroom polling charts: they say “7/1” but it’s clear they are “8/1”
Don’t see any individual adjusted charts for anything past 8/3.
What the heck happened to that huge 15 point kick in the ass she got from the Khan Man’s SNL skit at the convention and the DNC turds in the national DNC “media”?
The rough patch is over and we’re off to the biggest landslide in our lifetimes.
Trump is up a tad from yesterday. If the trend continues he will ahead in a couple of days.
USC is private.
If they skewed the results last week, why stop?
You are mistaken, it’s the year of the outsider. Hillary can be as wonkish as she wants to be. Trump merely needs to point out is that it is the establishment politicos like her, her husband Bill and Obama that have sold out America and the majority of Americans. It’s going to be yuuuggge.
Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported vote in that election.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/trump-top-latest-usc-la-times-daybreak-tracking-poll/
Very nice to see this. Trump has stabilized and Hillary is inflecting downward. Looks like Trump has survived the barrage.
Does it stand for University of Southern California?
The Khan Job also affected the Battleground states. When Trump get those numbers back in his category or least tied I can start feeling optimistic. The poll showing the bitch from hell leading Trump in Georgia is absolute garbage.
Yes, “Daybreak” Poll - a new day is dawning in America. The sun of freedom and honesty is rising and the darkness of tyranny and lies is dissipating.
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