Florida General Election August 4, 2016

Suffolk University ^ | 04/08/2016 | Suffolk University

[MaxistheBest]

Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 6 Points in Florida

Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Florida general election voters was conducted between August 1 and August 3, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Florida counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

[LS]

Probably just a tad high on the D side, 7.2% F over M lead?
Doesn’t seem accurate.

Now, what I noticed is that in OH, Suffolk asked for the “youngest voter in the home.” MASSIVE fraud. I notice on this poll-—(ahem, after I brought this up repeatedly on social media)-—they don’t say that. But is this still their methodology? If so, garbage.

Either way, this will bump up the RCP average in FL by a couple toward Cankles. Trump led there just two days ago by a fraction.

[Ray76]

> Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult.

Oh?

[Stingray51]

I am visiting Tampa at the moment - there are Jill Stein (Green Party candidate for president) commercials on tv. Can’t be good for Shrillary.

[LS]

I guess, but I’m NOT seeing the big peeling away in her numbers from surges in Johnson & Stein. I can’t imagine those two would be taking from Trump.

[baxtelf]

There are literally Trump signs all over Cape Coral and no Hillary ones. Where are they polling in FL?

[Steamburg]

Lots and lots of special sauce go into the selection process. I strongly doubt that the sample is anywhere within standard deviation of “likely voter” by anyone else’s definition.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult...whatever the rationale for this is, it biases the results bigtime....