Posted on 08/04/2016 6:52:58 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
Oversampling Democrats by 60%, no doubt.
389 LV’s. Laughable. Take a 2 week break from the polls and see where things are in mid August. This is predictable from the media. They are generating a huge polling bump for her that doesn’t exist, compounded by stories that Trump is against Gold Star Families, Trump is insane, Trump’s campaign is falling apart, Trump needs an intervention, Trump is underfunded. It will all shake out in a few weeks.
“Does this make sense?”
Yes. But the bigger point is we can’t be driving ourselves crazy spending time (at least this far out) trying the figure out the nuances of each poll but to keep strong, spreading the message and not allow the demoralization campaign waged by the MSM to work.
Look with the Wikileaks dump we all know now the MSM is officially an arm of the DNC and remember that going forward.
“The corporations who have a vested interest in manufacturing the Potemkin village have their collected pollsters armed with fresh paint to create the optics of a “historic” surge in polling upon the conclusion of the Democrat National Party Convention in Philadelphia.
This paint job has been planned for weeks, if not months.”
___________________________________________________
This is typical for every campaign season right after the conventions. The MSM will push polls showing HUGE dem leads that never pan out (look at the final election numbers). Also right after the conventions, the MSM will also jump on the GOP candidate with one hit piece after another, creating controversy with hearsay. They will take the candidates word out of context and try to place them on the defensive.
It does not matter who the GOP candidate is. By it Trump or Cruz or Jeb or Rubio (or in the past Romney or McCain or GWB or Dole, etc.) THE EXACT SAME THING HAPPENS EVERY 4 YEARS.
The problem for the dems and the MSM, this is a long campaign, the election is over 3 months away. They cannot keep this up that long. I think they are ‘shooting their wad’ now hoping that it will damage Trump. It will not. Ad more terrorist attacks and Wikileaks email releases and the game completely changes.
“389 LV’s. Laughable”
I agree that this poll looks worse the more you look at it. 389 is too small a sample and the fact that they drilled it down from a much higher count. And the MSM has been driving hard. It seems odd that just when Trump has had his best 2 months fundraising,on cue, all the bad polls come out.
I’m starting to think that it’s as simple as a phone call to Polling Co. ABC and they put the option plan in place.
It’s worth noting that the PPP poll was conducted at almost the same time and found Hillary up just 3 or 4 points.
A poll by a university, most of which lean left. Sigh
LEAN left??? ROTFLMAO!
Point taken.
It will be interesting if there will eventually be dumped leaked e-mails between the DNC (or her campaign) and polling firms. In that case that should be the end of those firms.
Note that Gallup is not doing any real polls this election cycle.
Interesting that this is a likely voter\registerd voter poll where Hillary is leading. Likely voter polls generally favor Trump.
RATS still over sampled and I have no idea what the secret sauce weighting algorithm is.
can we assume the likely voters were part of the
661 Pennsylvania registered voters ?
breakdown = 321 Democrats, 257 Republicans, and 83 Independents.
Survey results were weighted (age, gender, region, education, and party
registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm
as of the primary in April, there were 4.08 million registered democrats in the state, 3.16 million registered republicans and a total of 8.35 million registered voters.
demographically the state is 82.5 % white, black 11.5 %, Asian 3.5% and Hispanic 6 %. yes I know that is more than 100% but that is because of some overlap on interracial categories ~ 3.5%
While the states seem to indicate the state leans Dem, the legislator is for the most part republican, both the assembly and senate. State is the only northeast state south of VT/NH/ME with decent gun laws, in fact they are better than when I first moved to the state in 1988. Outside of the cites folks are pretty conservative when it comes to their arms.
In any case the voting patterns of the democratic folks vary widely from area to area. If you go to central/ north/ west rural/small town PA the white Dems are voting Trump. likely 67% to 33% for Hillary.
If you go to south east PA outside of Philly Trump seems to be leading 60/40%. If you go in Philly and or black community Trump is losing with only 10% support to 90% Hillary. Harrisburg/York seem to be split 50/50 right now. Too far away from Pittsburg to have a good feel for that area.
So the fact is depending on who you sample you can get the poll to look any way you want. I think this is a push poll, it does not reflect what I see as a resident.
Bam! This is exactly the reason we're seeing these made up polls.
Didn't Pat Caddell warn us about the skewed polling last week?
And wimp Toomey is distancing himself from Trump
As if democrat voters will split the ticket
Which makes him stupid as well as a wussy disloyal creep
Only 7% smokers!
Odd, that’s less then half the CDC figure.
Anyway, assuming the media gave her a 3 to 5% bounce this is within possibility.
They are adding this now too. Trying to get the GOPe to get Trump off the ballot:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/hanging-tough/
Trump is leading would be my guess.
The morons in Pennsylvania already have one plastic idiot in the U.S. Senate. We don't need to join places like Washington, California and Minnesota in having two.
I can’t believe they had the gall to release a poll with such a ridiculously low sample.
seriously, thoughts of hundreds of thousands of conservative Christian people need to move to certain states and form alliances....we need to stick together..
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