Change since yesterday. Trump +0.1, Beast +0.2. Background noise...............
Posted on 08/01/2016 7:48:08 AM PDT by Red Badger
Change since yesterday. Trump +0.1, Beast +0.2. Background noise.
Wouldn’t surprise me. AT ALL...............
think about it. the establishment (including conservative types) of both parties , the media, academia and Hollywood are all against trump and he is this close to Hillary and even ahead with this poll...
I suspect you’re right. I hope Trump knocks it out of the park!
Change since yesterday. Trump +0.1, Beast +0.2. Background noise...............
This shows that the voters are expecting Hillary to cheat her way to a win, with the MSM's help......................
This is a tracking poll, so it still contains data from before Hillary’s speech, which supposedly was good for her with some uncommitted. Therefore you might expect this to change more in her favor as we get to the results posted on Friday.
Dems have huge problems, without adding the Hillary and Trump dynamic to this...
On the basic fundamentals... This election is going to tend Republican.... 8 years of democrat, economy in the tank, and as much as the press won’t admit it a TOXIC president. Yes folks, the electorate has no more desire to see Obama than it has any of the other 8 year termers... Bush or Clinton.... This administration is just too arrogant or stupid and the press too much in the bag to tell them or too fearful.
Obama is less popular today than Bill Clinton was in 2000... His approval numbers are actually below Clinton’s in 2000. Yet the Dems think OBama the magic negro can salvage Hillary and the electorate wants a 3rd term... its a joke, they keep telling themselves.
So, independent of Hillary or Trump dynamic... the election is going to be in Republican’s favor. Now, when you start to add the Trump and Hillary Dynamics, I don’t see ANY way you wind up with anything other than Trump by a large margin.
The press and pundits, are under the delusion that Hillary and Trump are both such bad candidates that the election will wind up simply being a Generic D vs a Generic R, in which case, even with the fundamentals going against the D, they believe it will be close and Hillary may find a way to squeak it out.
They just refuse to understand that we are in a disruptive election cycle, they are refusing to understand just what is going on in the electorate, on both sides of the aisle, and in the middle. This isn’t a generic R vs a generic D, it is a corrupt known D running against a disrupting known, but outsider R who is running against the corruption of the status quo... at a time when the electorate is beyond fed up with the status quo, and ready to remind the political class exactly who owns this country.
I see no way, none, not a single solitary way, that this election doesn’t wind up huge for Trump. He has taken the GOP to task for a lot of their bad NEOCON Policy nonsense, and broken away from policies that have hindered the GOP in much of the rustbelt and north east... while at the same time shining a spotlight on the abject corruption within the political class as a whole.
Just look at the internals of the polling, Consistently, Trump is massively beating Hillary in Independents... like around 20 points winning.... While at the same time Trump is down about 10-12 points from traditional support levels among republicans... and even with this, Trump is tied or slightly ahead in most national polling and more importantly in many many states that Hillary cannot afford to lose, and thats even with HIllary spending 10s of millions in ads, and Trump spending next to nothing.
Look at FL/OH/PA polling... July just ended, and she’s already spent over 50 Million in those states, and she’s polling tied or behind in all of them, except for a recent ludicrous outlier in PA that tried to claim she has a 9 point lead there, which is laughable, not even political pundits on the D side of the aisle here remotely believe that poll is anything near reality.
For Hillary to win, she needs to get about 15% of the independents who have already decided against her, to change their minds, and at the same time not lose any of the traditional D base support (she’s pretty much tapped out in her base, and best she is managing is a tie).
Trump on the other hand is up bit in independents and needs to shore up the base.. by election day his support among republicans will be near traditional R support levels... and He will also continue to target and pick away at the Blue Dog/Blue Collar dems across the rust belt and North East... He’ll take them in other states too, but they are states that were going to be red no matter who was running.
I really think Hillary is sitting currently at a best case scenario of no more than 10 ish states and 100-120 EC votes. Originally I thought her best case was 15is states and 180ish EC votes, but since then her campaign has shown itself to be completely inept, and just let its Convention be about literally everything but her.... Bernie for 2 days, and then Trump literally stole the headlines for an entire day of it as well.
With each passing day she’s moving closer and closer to possibly seeing an 1980 type loss... Her campaign has ZERO momentum, she is a horrible campaigner with no natural ability or talent, and literally has ZERO personal support... she excites no one... her support is basically those that will vote D no matter what... and folks who dont like/distrust Trump.... Trump will close the gap with many voters who question him between now and November....
World events are on Trumps side as well... More terror attacks will happen and Hillary will keep saying don’t blame Muslims.... More murders, rapes and other things will happen by illegals, and Hillary will either ignore them or claim the US needs them... every time Trump will come out looking like a leader and gain more in the polls.
Hillary’s record, that she wants to run on is ABYSMAL... so its hard to see how she is going to change the dynamic with this sort of argument... A 2 term carpet bagger senator and a secretary of state who literally managed to take the dysfunctional middle east and make it an even bigger fustercluck.
She has no emotional hook and her logical hook is failure... She’s got nowhere to go, but slowly down the toilet, and she’s going to take a lot of down ballot folks with her.
Not to mention the next real big event.. the debates. Does anyone, anyone think, that when Alpha Male X Factor Trump is put side by side with Cackles and Cankles in front of the american people that Hillary can come out as the winner in any way shape or form??? Yes, the press will be in cahoots with the D and do all their little tricks they try to pull... and Guess what? Trump will call them out on it, and it won’t matter, if anything Trump will gain with every little trick they try to pull.
Seriously anyone, anyone think Hillary v Trump on live TV is going to end with Hillary in the victors circle? If anything it will just highlight even more forcefully how weak she is at all levels.
Dems have huge problems, without adding the Hillary and Trump dynamic to this...
On the basic fundamentals... This election is going to tend Republican.... 8 years of democrat, economy in the tank, and as much as the press won’t admit it a TOXIC president. Yes folks, the electorate has no more desire to see Obama than it has any of the other 8 year termers... Bush or Clinton.... This administration is just too arrogant or stupid and the press too much in the bag to tell them or too fearful.
Obama is less popular today than Bill Clinton was in 2000... His approval numbers are actually below Clinton’s in 2000. Yet the Dems think OBama the magic negro can salvage Hillary and the electorate wants a 3rd term... its a joke, they keep telling themselves.
So, independent of Hillary or Trump dynamic... the election is going to be in Republican’s favor. Now, when you start to add the Trump and Hillary Dynamics, I don’t see ANY way you wind up with anything other than Trump by a large margin.
The press and pundits, are under the delusion that Hillary and Trump are both such bad candidates that the election will wind up simply being a Generic D vs a Generic R, in which case, even with the fundamentals going against the D, they believe it will be close and Hillary may find a way to squeak it out.
They just refuse to understand that we are in a disruptive election cycle, they are refusing to understand just what is going on in the electorate, on both sides of the aisle, and in the middle. This isn’t a generic R vs a generic D, it is a corrupt known D running against a disrupting known, but outsider R who is running against the corruption of the status quo... at a time when the electorate is beyond fed up with the status quo, and ready to remind the political class exactly who owns this country.
I see no way, none, not a single solitary way, that this election doesn’t wind up huge for Trump. He has taken the GOP to task for a lot of their bad NEOCON Policy nonsense, and broken away from policies that have hindered the GOP in much of the rustbelt and north east... while at the same time shining a spotlight on the abject corruption within the political class as a whole.
Just look at the internals of the polling, Consistently, Trump is massively beating Hillary in Independents... like around 20 points winning.... While at the same time Trump is down about 10-12 points from traditional support levels among republicans... and even with this, Trump is tied or slightly ahead in most national polling and more importantly in many many states that Hillary cannot afford to lose, and thats even with HIllary spending 10s of millions in ads, and Trump spending next to nothing.
Look at FL/OH/PA polling... July just ended, and she’s already spent over 50 Million in those states, and she’s polling tied or behind in all of them, except for a recent ludicrous outlier in PA that tried to claim she has a 9 point lead there, which is laughable, not even political pundits on the D side of the aisle here remotely believe that poll is anything near reality.
For Hillary to win, she needs to get about 15% of the independents who have already decided against her, to change their minds, and at the same time not lose any of the traditional D base support (she’s pretty much tapped out in her base, and best she is managing is a tie).
Trump on the other hand is up bit in independents and needs to shore up the base.. by election day his support among republicans will be near traditional R support levels... and He will also continue to target and pick away at the Blue Dog/Blue Collar dems across the rust belt and North East... He’ll take them in other states too, but they are states that were going to be red no matter who was running.
I really think Hillary is sitting currently at a best case scenario of no more than 10 ish states and 100-120 EC votes. Originally I thought her best case was 15is states and 180ish EC votes, but since then her campaign has shown itself to be completely inept, and just let its Convention be about literally everything but her.... Bernie for 2 days, and then Trump literally stole the headlines for an entire day of it as well.
With each passing day she’s moving closer and closer to possibly seeing an 1980 type loss... Her campaign has ZERO momentum, she is a horrible campaigner with no natural ability or talent, and literally has ZERO personal support... she excites no one... her support is basically those that will vote D no matter what... and folks who dont like/distrust Trump.... Trump will close the gap with many voters who question him between now and November....
World events are on Trumps side as well... More terror attacks will happen and Hillary will keep saying don’t blame Muslims.... More murders, rapes and other things will happen by illegals, and Hillary will either ignore them or claim the US needs them... every time Trump will come out looking like a leader and gain more in the polls.
Hillary’s record, that she wants to run on is ABYSMAL... so its hard to see how she is going to change the dynamic with this sort of argument... A 2 term carpet bagger senator and a secretary of state who literally managed to take the dysfunctional middle east and make it an even bigger fustercluck.
She has no emotional hook and her logical hook is failure... She’s got nowhere to go, but slowly down the toilet, and she’s going to take a lot of down ballot folks with her.
Not to mention the next real big event.. the debates. Does anyone, anyone think, that when Alpha Male X Factor Trump is put side by side with Cackles and Cankles in front of the american people that Hillary can come out as the winner in any way shape or form??? Yes, the press will be in cahoots with the D and do all their little tricks they try to pull... and Guess what? Trump will call them out on it, and it won’t matter, if anything Trump will gain with every little trick they try to pull.
Seriously anyone, anyone think Hillary v Trump on live TV is going to end with Hillary in the victors circle? If anything it will just highlight even more forcefully how weak she is at all levels.
OK, maybe I exaggerate. Nobody in my workplace in Manhattan are hanging signs and dancing about the hallways for her. But you definitely don't want to mention Trump at the water cooler unless you are 100% sure that you are in good company. Because the liberals aren't tolerant at all.
Fortunately, quite a few of us here are for Trump. We just keep it low key and among ourselves. Every so often, we add more people to our circle. It's like a secret society!
Not when the purpose of polling is to SHAPE opinion, as opposed to measuring it.
Polls only show what they show...
The purpose of a poll is to capture a snapshot of opinion... however if your point is to use polling to influence people that the public feels a different way than base reality, it really isn’t hard to create a poll to give you desired results.
Political campaign internal polls exist so that the campaigns know the state of the race, news organization polling anymore is far more often about being portrayed as an influencer.. for example why are their polls ever taken about support for gay marriage or this or that? WHy? So they can show a support, for the cause... and then attempt to argue that “support” is all that matters, and any and all arguments against it are irrelevant.
I don’t ever doubt a polls outcome is the outcome of their data, but its not very hard to manipulate samples... push polling, question order, question phrasing, sample filtering are all ways to play with outcomes.
For example, why would a poll suddenly start offering NEITHER in their polling questioning? Though its never ever offered it before? Well if they are offering it, and the outcome with NEITHER show a trend that a head to head doesn’t show... the headlines can blare HIllary up 5.... even though the head to head question without neither shows her tied or down a few....
A true poll, does its best to simply capture reality, but any more that is not what they exist for. Internal campaign polling is probably the only polling when it comes to politics that is going to be honest as it can be, because if the polling here is off, it can actually cost someone an election because they make decisions about things based upon them.
I personally find it laughable ANY poll that showed Clinton getting a “bounce” out of her convention... Literally there was nothing that happened in it to give any momentum to her... the first two days the press was all about Bernie and his supporters/DNCLeaks.... and Wednesday was all about Trump and the Email leaks.. Hillary literally got Thursday, if that to be about her at a news cycle level, and I’m sorry but her speech was not a home run, it was at best a solid base hit maybe a ground rule double...Nothing that was going to sway major changes to the dynamics of the race or the electorate.
Dems are in trouble, and the ones that are able to be HONEST with themselves, have known it form the get go... the ones that aren’t, well they are going to just dance as Rome burns around them.
I predict this will level at Trump +3.5. He has slipped a tad each day, but I think it’s just about bottomed out.
I think post DNC it’s closer-—2 points Trump lead. But I also expect much of that will vanish as Cankles voters have to try to maintain enthusiasm.
The key number is 65m. That will win it, easily. Zero got 66m in 2012, Minion 61. No way Cankles gets much over 60m.
I urge all of you NOT to expect Trump to do well in the debates. This will be worse than the GOPe debates with moderators interrupting as he savages her, skewing answers.
Personally, I think Trump will have to win in spite of the debates.
I am another “silent” Trump supporter. Traditionally I would have a yard sign and a bumper sticker for the Republican nominee, but I live in an area with about 10% black population, and a much higher level on my street. I see no reason to antagonize them, but I will support Trump with my money and my vote. I’ve talked to dozens just like me. There is a ground swell of people who believe this country is headed the wrong way. Let’s hope they decide to vote this election.
I honestly don’t think the DNC helped Hillary at all.. perhaps some loyalists are not a bit more loyal, but the convention was a disaster for her.
Bernie supporters sure aren’t going to flock to her in the wake of DNC Leaks.... most will likely just stay home as they were mostly kids anyway. Some may even turn their disillusionment into general anger at the corrupt system in which case Trump may pick up a few.
Trump literally stole the headlines for an entire day of the DNC convention on Wednesday... so the only real event that was likely to move folks who weren’t already onboard was her acceptance speech, which was nothing that was going to motivate much of anything..
Best thing Hillary could have hoped for was loyal troops uniting a bit tighter, but most of them were already solidly on board, so any gain at all would be very very small at best.
Time will tell, but I really don’t see Hillary managing anything close at the end of the day... I think 60 M would be a miracle for her.
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