Posted on 05/10/2016 3:40:44 AM PDT by LNV
"In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania."
(Excerpt) Read more at scribd.com ...
The enthusiasm factor will favor Trump in the close races. Then there’s under-polling of groups that will be as near as unanimous as possible for Trump....coal miners, veterans/military for example.
I can assure all you folks across America...that Donald J. Trump will carry Ohio, Florida & Texas with ease!!! The media , the Republican & Democrat establishment guessed wrong, every time relative Trump.....and the fools and iiots are doing it again. The fact of life is that the vast majority of American voters have Trump’s back and support him...100%. The media is dying on the vine poisoned by their forever lie telling!!! And.....the Democrat & Republican political Parties will never, ever, be the same as they are today. They will either change radically, or, they will just simply disappear into the filthy, acid cesspool where they both belong!!!
Trump is going to win in Nov and win big. The map will be redefined. It’s not going to be close folks. Trump will take states that haven’t been red in decades.
The GOP can wake up and embrace this and grow as a party for the first time in decades... Or it can continue on its slow death spiral. Trump will take the White House either way.
My aged aunt, a lifelong Dem, is voting for Trump. We’ve always joked that we cancel out each other’s votes here in FL, but not this year. Jobs and immigration are her big issues. Some of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren are having a hard time making it, through no fault of their own, and she’s finally seen that the Dem party doesn’t care.
I hate to quote Carville, but it’s still “the economy, stupid” that wins elections.
I was in McCain campaign hq in MI when we got the call they were pulling out very early and all calls should go to wisconsin. Are you kidding me? Echoed through the halls.
Trump hasn’t spent much and already he’s giving Crooked Hillary a run for her (Goldman Sachs) $$$
This morning it was a thing of beauty to see the Morning Joe round table react to these numbers.
After a half hour of trashing Trump, they were giddy to hear a Trump/ Clinton poll had just been released. You could hear the wind taken out of their sales as they read the numbers.
Beautiful!!!
Even “likely voter” polls don’t tell the whole story since Donald Trump is bringing millions of new people to the voting booth, many for the first time.
New York will be in play too. Trump will have solid leads very soon everywhere once his full out attacks on Hillary begin. So far the issues around Hillary that he has brought up have been just the tip of the ice berg that will sink her.
Hillary will be suspending her campaign for health reasons very soon.
The MSM can’t successfully distract we-the-people with “transgender bathroom laws” much longer. We have wised up finally. (Not FReepers! we are not the gullible masses, however the general uninformed populace is FINALLY waking up).
This is where Trump should be.
Dont get too hot, too quick. There are still a lot of days left.
FL—Clinton 42, Trump 42
FL—Obama 50, Romney 49 2012
OH—Trump 43, Clinton 39
OH—Obama 60, Romney 48 2012
PA—Clinton 43, Trump 42
PA—Obama 52, Romney 47 2012
“Hillary will be suspending her campaign for health reasons very soon.”
Only if they make her. She wants power badly.
The problem for the Dems is their bench is thin. Everybody loves Bernie right now because they don’t know much about him, but he’s considered too far left by mainstream Dems, so he’s definitely too far left for the bulk of the electorate. Trump would have a field day with him. Biden is...Biden. Boring, unexciting, blergh. Elizabeth Warren got her azz handed to her on twitter by Trump last week, so she’s not strong enough to take him on. Who else is there?
I’ve thought for quite a while that Trump would probably win FL, OH, and, yes, PA. What I’m actually more curious about now are VA, CO, NV, and MI.
I think Michigan is going to be harder than Pennsylvania for Trump, but I think he has a real shot there with his economic message. I’m afraid about Virginia because of the D.C. suburbs and voting felons, but he’s going to get huge bipartisan turnout in Southwest, Southside, and the whiter military/vet heavy areas of the Tidewater. (Wouldn’t it be perverse if the Republican nominee won PA, but not VA?) I hope the higher new registrations among anti-Trump Hispanics that are apparently taking place in NV and CO are not enough to lose him those states. Trump still hasn’t been to CO even once; I hope he gets out there soon.
I am also curious as to whether Trump will have a real shot at NH (the latest poll has him down 5%, which is not too bad), IA, WI (is he still not “nice” enough for IA and WI?), or even NJ (which is a much more realistic chance for him than NY). I would love to see him play in OR and NM but those are probably a bridge too far (because of hard-left pockets and demographic changes, respectively). From what the media whores have been saying, AZ and GA are probably the only two red states from 2012 Trump will have to defend. I doubt he’ll have any real problem with those.
Yeeeeeehaaaaaa!!!! VOTE TRUMP!!!!!!
Trump can take PA!
2-3 weeks ago Morning Consult released a poll of 44,000 registered state voters showing that Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump in the electoral college by a 328 to 210 margin.
But it also revealed two other things:
1) Trump would win all the states that Romney won in 2012, including NC, plus Maine (4).
2) Trump was within 2 points of Clinton in swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Florida: 1.7% Ohio: 2% PA: 0.20%
With that in mind if you flip these 3 states to Trump (DT is now leading in Ohio) it’s easy to see that if those 67 ev’s went over that Trump would have 277 ev’s to Clinton’s 261 and would be the next POTUS.
Based on the results of the Q, that is now quite conceivable.
I'm not so sure about that. While I agree that Trump will bring in new voters I believe that the methodology for selecting "Likely Voters" relies on more than just a "Did you vote last time" question.
But I could be wrong about that. In any case this is a very favorable set of polls.
I’m skeptical of the AZ and GA polls. GA—unknown pollster and here are the crosstabs:
Not enough info there to figure out what the heck they did.
Same thing with the AZ poll. Never heard of Behavior Research, but here are the crosstabs. Again, not enough info to figure out their assumptions:
http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP%202016-II-04.pdf
I’m always suspicious of unknown polling firms releasing polls without releasing full crosstabs. Therein lies much room for mischief.
Thanks, good work.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.