Posted on 04/09/2016 11:49:42 AM PDT by Strac6
A serious question about potentially brokered (free vote) convention.
Some real world givens here. Trump may make it on the first ballot. If he does not, he still has a chance on the second, but that is a lesser chance. If he doesn't win on the first or second, then he is out of the race.
Cruz, probably little chance on the first, better on the second, perhaps about the same on a 3d ballot, and if not successful there, he is gone.
But they do have to nominate someone, and remember, any Convention Rule can be changed by a simple voice vote.
PLEASE DO NOT LET THIS POST JUST TURN INTO A RA RA TRUMP, or a RA RA CRUZ OR ANYTHING SUCH AS THAT, or A FLAME WAR / RANT, BUT LET IT BE A SERIOUS DISCUSSION, OK?
If Trump and Cruz are gone, Kasich has a chance, but he is not the type of candidate everyone suddenly has a Eureka moment about.
I don't see Palin reemerging, nor McCain, nor Romney, nor Christie. Not Walker, nor Carson.
Paul Ryan is not a "strong" person.
How about Rudy Giuliani? He is still "America's Mayor" from 9/11.
Who else has some ideas.
Let's also NOT make this a place to just knock every other person's suggestion or complain the named candidate isn't Conservative "enough". Remember, Heinrich Himmler isn't running. Let's just see where this goes.
Who's got the best Crystal Ball, and can pick the winner of a possible contested convention 3 months early?????
That story seems like the un-sorced Rumor de Jour.
He would be a “safe” pick.
I doubt Giuliani is interested but he would be an excellent president. I’m hoping Walker might re-emerge but we might end up with Rubio. Eh, people are going to rip my head off, but those are my thoughts.
Smart VP choice. NOTHING the Rs do will ever get them the Black vote. They are best to stop chasing it.
Think Cruz has to win on 2d or 3rd ballot if he is to win...
After that, we’re into extra innings.
Walker is like Bush, He would be a good president, but needs about 4 cans of Red Bull to get some fire before he makes any speeches.
Rubio? Think he burned too many bridges, but who knows?
It will be Trump or Cruz, all the rest of this is just conspiracy theories or wishful thinking.
Trump or Cruz will have by far and away the most delegates.
Trump wins on the first ballot or he is likely done depending on just how close he is.
Cruz loses on the first ballot but has a good chance on the 2nd or 3rd.
Kasich may get a VP nod if either of the above 2 desperately need his delegates/support, but Kasich will not be the nominee.
Its either going to be Trump or Cruz. Which means its going to be Trump. There isn’t going to be a second or third vote. Trump will win on the first ballot.
“Bernie wins the General.”
I doubt very much that will happen.
Excellent point!
And by the way, I have read all of Rule 40, not just 40b. In particular, it doesn't say that a candidate may not receive votes if not formally nominated. Nor does it recognize that he may receive votes. The possibilities simply aren't mentioned.
So presumably, the Kasich and Rubio delegates could still "try" to vote for their men, even though the two names might not have been placed formally before the convention.
If that should happen, the chair would probably rule either (a) that those votes had been legitimately cast, or (b) that the delegates in question had -- in effect -- abstained.
In either case, assuming nobody got up to 1237 on the first round, the convention would necessarily proceed to a second ballot.
But again, Rule 40 as now written gives no guidance. Who might be nominated? The Rule is silent. Therefore, if the 2016 Rules Committee had not previously amended or augmented Rule 40 prior to the second ballot, the Chair presumably could entertain motions from the floor as to what new rule or rules might prevail.
Then, round and round they'd go. Could make for some riveting TV time!
I doubt it too, I was just being facetious.
That depends on how loyal the delegates are. Delegates who are forced, kicking and screaming, to vote Trump/Cruz will do everything they can to mess with the rules. Delegates who love Trump/Cruz will protect their candidates if they know what is going on and are not snowed by the leadership. Remember that bound delegates do not have to be actual supporters. The two leading candidates have to do a whole lot of relationship building with their delegates and a whole lot of educating before this convention.
Kasich is completely unacceptable. His consistent positions (not taken out of context) are unacceptable to conservatives:
- Kasich voted for the “Assault” Weapons Ban. https://grabien.com/file.php?id=53463 and as of last year did not regret that vote
- Kasich supported and implemented Obamacare’s Medicare expansion http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-kasich-bible-medicaid_us_56140a54e4b022a4ce5fb1e3
- Kasich supports Amnesty for illegals. http://www.ontheissues.org/John_Kasich.htm
- Kasich dismissively said Christian bakers should “bake the cupcake” and participate in a gay parody of the sacrament of marriage, even if it violates their religious beliefs. https://www.frcaction.org/updatearticle/20160225/kasich-pushes
- Kasich supports Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-kasich-id-consider-nominating-merrick-garland-supreme-court-election-2016/
As for the others, I think nominating anyone other than Trump or Cruz would be a final, fatal blow to the republican party and to America. There won’t be a country to rescue four years from now if Hillary or Bernie takes power, not with our current, weakened condition.
>> beyond the traditional GOP fold. Trump has more friends there than Cruz does <<
The numbers I’ve seen don’t say so to me.
But time will tell, obviously.
The National Convention Rules are subject to change on the floor of the National Convention. Priebus blows some smoke that the Rules are engraved on stone tablets.
All rules are subject to the individuals sitting on the RULES Committee.
Who are they?
Are they solid for Cruz or TRUMP, or pretenders for one or the other?
Who holds the gavel?
Will the votes on the RUUUULES be taken by voice vote?
Will the gavel then fall in favor of the voice vote the Establishment wants and the question as in 2012 then closed?
Just read a 30 minute old press story from Michigan.
Cruz put up 8 nominations for Michigan’s delegate spots to the National Committee.
Kasich colluded with TRUMP, and CRUZ WAS SHUT OUT FROM ALL EIGHT SPOTS.
The contenders are finally taking a page out of the Cruz playbook, and playing low and nasty at LAST.
And then there's Huck. And Bobby J. And Michelle Bachman.
Fred Thompson -- probably not. But there are any number of Duncan Hunters out there just waiting for the call.
Seriously, if they don't nominate one of the front runners whoever they put up will be just a sacrificial lamb.
Manafirt’s hard at work.
Good. Thanks, Rita.
Wow!! Great news!
Thanks so much for the “Ted Gets a Taste of his Own Medicine” update :)
Related!!
Trump, Kasich box out Cruz in Michigan delegation
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3419209/posts
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